Events & Issues

New Delhi, 20 October 2008

J&K Elections

SAY NO TO BULLET, GO FOR BALLOT

By Sant Kumar Sharma

The Election Commission has finally ended speculation over holding of polls in trouble-torn Jammu & Kashmir and set the ball rolling for an end to Governor’s rule in the State.  

This time around, the elections are a long overdrawn process. The polling will be held in seven phases, which clearly shows that the Union Government, the State administration and the Election Commission are keen to ensure the tightest of security. With the first phase to be held in mid-November and last one scheduled for December 24, the entire process will take more than a month.

The elections, in fact are being held at a time when large parts of the State could be under a blanket of snow. The polling process will reach its culmination with the counting of votes on December 31. So, the new 87-member Assembly will be constituted at the height of winter and a new government in place in the New Year.

Recall, the last elections, held in 2002 were staggered too, but were held over three weeks only and in four phases. The first round was on September 16 and the last was held in the mountainous Doda on October 8, 2002. Polling, however, took place for only 85 constituencies as  two candidates, Nawang Rigzin Jora and Pintoo Norboo, owing allegiance to the Ladakh Union Territory Front (LUTF) in Leh district were declared elected unopposed.

No candidate, even the then sitting National Conference legislator Tsetan Namgyal (elected in 1996), dared to file nominations against them.  Jora later joined Mufti Mohammed Sayeed’s coalition government and continued to remain a Cabinet minister during Ghulam Nabi Azad’s chief ministership.  

Interestingly, only one constituency, Lolab in Kupwara district went to the polls in the Valley on the last date, which returned Qaiser Ahmed Lone of the National Conference to the Assembly. This election had been necessitated due to the killing of NC leader and minister of state for law Mushtaq Ahmed Lone. Re-polling, however, had to be held in four polling stations of Pahalgam, one each in Kathua and Surankote constituency the same day.

Security compulsions appear to be a major compulsion for the Commission to hold a seven-phase poll, given the fact that the separatists are yet again calling for a poll boycott. This apart, the three-member body would have kept in mind that on September 14, 2002, just two days prior to the first round of polling, militants had struck in a big way, in both Jammu and Kashmir provinces. In the former, they had attacked security forces in Surankote, in which at least 28 Border Security Force (BSF) personnel were killed.

Around the same time, militants had struck in the Kashmir valley and killed Mushtaq Ahmed Lone in Lolab. These two events had obviously raised a spectre of bloodshed in the run-up to the first phase polling. And, these had rattled the establishment to an extent that Congress supremo Sonia Gandhi had to cancel her programme to Nowshera town of Rajouri district and depute Ghulam Nabi and Ambika Soni instead.

Other than security concerns, the big question is what will be the poll equations between the various political parties? In 2002, the acrimony between the BJP and the RSS-led Jammu State Morcha (JSM) had led to virtual annihilation of the saffron party in the State. The BJP had then fielded 58 candidates, leaving nine constituencies to JSM candidates as part of the last-minute limited pre-poll arrangement. Though it polled 8.57 per cent of votes, only one of its candidates, Jugal Kishore Sharma, could emerge winner that too by a very slender margin of 67 votes in Nagrota constituency.

In sharp contrast, the Jammu and Kashmir National Panthers Party (JKNPP) led by Bhim Singh got only 3.83 votes, but in the right places, in a consolidated manner, and bagged four seats. The CPM performed even better. It fielded candidates in just seven constituencies and got only 0.88 per cent of votes. But, these votes were enough to get two of its candidates elected.

The Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) had fielded 33 candidates, bagged 4.50 per cent of votes but managed to get only one candidate elected. Its legislator, Manjit Singh, who had won from Vijaypur constituency of Jammu district, later changed loyalties and joined Mufti’s coalition government. The BSP leadership threw him out of the party and now he is planning to contest on the PDP ticket.

After winning a massive mandate in 1996 and remaining chief minister for six years, National Conference leader Farooq Abdullah projected his son Omar Abdullah as the party’s chief ministerial candidate for the 2002 poll. Six years later, Omar continues to be the president of the NC. However, this time around, the party is ambivalent about projecting him as its chief ministerial candidate. In the days to come things may change for Omar.

Incidentally, in the last election, the People’s Democratic Party and the Congress had not joined hands upfront, but worked behind the scenes to defeat the NC candidates. And, they were successful in defeating some candidates by propping up one another’s candidates.

However, the Amarnath land row has changed that equation altogether. Today, the Congress and the PDP are the bitterest of foes as they brace up for the poll. Mufti’s withdrawal of support to Azad’s Congress-led government has created such a deep rift between the two that their coming together is highly unlikely.

In such a scenario, it appears that the NC and the Congress may well work together, behind the scenes and openly, to defeat the PDP candidates. If this happens, the father and daughter duo have a tough fight on their hands.

While the coming weeks will be keenly watched for political tie-ups, will Srinagar this time witness the oath taking ceremony for the winning party? Till now, successive chief ministers, be it Farooq Abdullah or Mufti Mohammed Sayeed or Ghulam Nabi Azad, all took their oath of office in Srinagar, the summer capital, because of the established practice of taking over from where the Durbar (the civil secretariat) is functioning.

This time around, there seems to be a question mark thanks to end-December’s bitter chill. Well, the new incumbent, perhaps for the first time may have to take the oath of office in Jammu, the winter capital, unless he/she chooses not to go against the established practice. Be that as it may, now that the Election commission has made up its mind to go ahead with the polls, it is time for the people of the State to make up theirs – who should represent them.  ---INFA   

 (Copyright, India News and Feature Alliance)