Round The World

New Delhi, 9 December 2008

War Against Pak No Solution

PERSUATION HOLDS THE KEY

By Prof. Chintamani Mahapatra

School of International Studies, JNU

The first military action against the terrorist training camps in Pakistan is clearly imminent. Virtual action is on in the Western Frontier of Pakistan bordering Afghanistan. The United States has been hitting terrorist targets for months in response to the cross border terrorism along the Pak-Afghan border.

Early this week, the Pakistani armed forces and other security agencies raided several camps used by the Lashkar-e-Toiba in and around Muzaffarabad, Pakistan-occupied Kashmir and arrested a number of its leaders including Lakhvi, who is reportedly the brain behind the Mumbai mayhem.  

Clearly, the 26/11 incident has galvanized India, the US, the EU and others to put unprecedented pressure on the Pakistani Government to take action against the perpetrators. New Delhi has been hinting that it might be compelled to take military action against the terror networks and training facilities in Pakistan. The international community is on the alert and the Pakistani Government has been asked to deliver the terror leaders for necessary proceedings.

The Zardari Government condemned the terrorist acts in Mumbai, offered full cooperation to New Delhi in investigating the incidents, but backtracked when some concrete action was demanded by Prime Minister Manmohan Singh. The latter requested his Pakistani counterpart to depute the ISI Chief for consultation. Promptly, the Pakistan Government agreed only to do a volte face soon after.

One of the reasons for this sudden about turn was the interpretation of this unprecedented Indian request by the Pakistani media. The Press viewed it as though the ISI Chief was being summoned to New Delhi for "interrogation." When India claimed that it had incontrovertible evidence of Pakistani elements involvement in the Mumbai mayhem, Islamabad refuted such "allegations". However, it later said that if any of its nationals were involved, they would be tried in Pakistan alone. Such Pakistani tactics are all too well-known and oft-repeated. Clearly, not to extend support to apprehend anti-India terrorist organizations based on its soil.

As Zardari Government dilly-dallied, the US and the EU joined India in putting additional pressure on Pakistan. US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice made an emergency landing in South Asia, extended the Bush Administration's support to India and issued a strong warning to Pakistan that if it did not take appropriate action against the terrorist groups, the US would step in. President-elect Barrack Obama has too come out in full support of India. Earlier, he was of the view that if Pakistan was unwilling or incapable to take action against Al Qaeda and Taliban, the US should take appropriate measures, even without consulting Pakistan.

Republican Senator John McCain, the presidential contender in the recent poll, also visited the sub-continent and clearly warned Pakistan that India could take military action against the terrorist facilities in Pakistan, unless the Zardari Government cooperated in apprehending the masterminds of the Mumbai attack. He drew a comparison between 9/11 and 26/11 and said that when the Taliban regime refused to hand over Osama bin Laden and others responsible for 9/11, the US had little option but to attack Afghanistan. He argued that India would not be faulted, if it took military action in the face of Pakistan’s unwillingness to cooperate.

In the meantime, an article in the New York Times about redrawing of borders in some countries, including Pakistan, showed a map of a truncated Pakistan along with an independent Baluchistan and an expanded Afghanistan to include the North West Frontier Province. The timing of this article coincides with the Indo-Pakistan tension arising out of 26/11. It has further added the pressure on Pakistan, as analysts there are of the view, wrongly though, that India, the US and Afghanistan are all colluding to further divide the State of Pakistan.  

The EU too has asked Islamabad to rein in the terrorist groups within its borders. Both the US and EU governments are well aware that there are close links between active terrorist groups in Afghanistan, Pakistan and India. Moreover, these governments, particularly NATO members have a high stake in Afghanistan. The situation in Afghanistan with the resurfacing of the Taliban, reinvigoration of the Al Qaeda in the region, the chaotic security scenario in Pakistan's North West Frontier Province and the growing terrorist attacks in Pakistani cities are bound to further deteriorate the situation. Unless New Delhi’s grievance against Pakistan is appropriately addressed. At this point, an Indo-Pakistan conflict will only add complications to the Americans and NATO's fight against the Taliban and Al Qaeda in Afghanistan.

It is worth recalling that when India and Pakistan were on the verge of going to war in the wake of the terrorist strike on India’s Parliament on 13 December, 2001, the US and its allies pressured New Delhi against escalating military tension with its neighour. The argument then given was that such an action by India would force Pakistan to divert its forces from along the Afghan border to India’s border. Such an action would strengthen both the Taliban and Al Qaeda’s position.

Significantly, neither the US nor the EU appear to be pushing New Delhi against stern measures against the perpetrators of the Mumbai attack. On the contrary, they are putting diplomatic pressure on Pakistan to act and cooperate with India.

Undoubtedly, Pakistan is feeling the heat and war clouds over South Asia are apparently thickening. The Indian media is debating openly the options available to New Delhi to punish those responsible for the attack on the country's financial capital.

While, one has to understand the Indian popular mood against the recent attacks that engaged the security agencies in a gun battle for over two days in the middle of a metropolitan city, the government has to think things coolly. While some have argued against military confrontation with Pakistan on grounds that it would gratify the terrorists’ wishes, there are others who have strong reasons for taking punitive measures that could lead to a full scale war between India and Pakistan.

Remember, India has had experience in exhibiting utmost restraint during the Kargil misadventure of Pakistan. There is no reason why we should rush into measures that could derail the peace process, undo all the achievements in improving relations with Pakistan and further divert India's attention from the real goal of emerging as a responsible global actor in world affairs.

This, however, does not mean that India should tolerate and forget the Mumbai mayhem. It also does not mean that we should forgive the terrorists responsible for the attacks. Instead, India should take advantage of the global support it has received against the 26/11 and put maximum diplomatic, economic and political pressure on Pakistan to come onboard in preventing further terrorist acts. The cooperation of both the people and government of Pakistan will need to be acquired through a combination of pressure and persuasion. It is time to work towards a durable solution. ---INFA

 (Copyright, India News and Feature Alliance)