Round The World

New Delhi, 11 November 2008

Historic US Presidential Election

UNEASE OVER FATE OF NUCLEAR DEAL

By Prof. Chintamani Mahapatra

(School of International Studies, JNU)

The outcome of the November 2008 US Presidential election has created history. Not just for the US but also for the world. Never before has the world watched an American Presidential race with so much of interest and expectations as the present one. Once it came to be known that Barrack Hussein Obama had won the Presidency, there was jubilation in some parts of the US and disappointment in other parts. A large number of people in various countries too displayed their enthusiasm and hope, while not a few raised their eyebrows with question marks or apprehensions.

First, the historic aspect of this election. This poll is in a way a triumph of the US African community in their century-long struggle for freedom, equality and empowerment. The long march of the African-Americans from the days of slavery through the Civil War and emancipation of the 1860s and the Civil Rights Movement of the 1960s at last ended with Obama’s election as the 44th President of the United States. History unfolded in front of our noses!

It is also a historic moment for the global community. While the US has long been regarded as a country of opportunity and freedom by the suppressed and oppressed of the world, the rampant inequality and racial discrimination in this country created negative images of America in the minds of millions.

Many did not believe that America was ready for a Black President. Several spoke of the so-called "Bradley Effect" during the election campaign, which meant many White voters avowing publicly to support Obama would actually vote for the Republican nominee John McCain along the racial convictions. But the American voters demonstrated to the world that skin colour did not matter to them when they went to cast their votes.

The victory of Obama instantly inspired confidence among the ethnic minorities in the US that it was no longer impossible for one of their community members to aspire for the highest office of the country.

Simultaneously, expectations arose in different parts of the world that Democratic President Obama would adopt a multilateral, cooperative and peaceful approach to world affairs as part of his mission of "change." This too is historic since never before has a US President-elect generated such hopes around the world.

Will it be a different world in the post-20 January 2009 era? Will Obama deliver the promises he made during the midst of his fierce election campaign? He has promised many things to many countries through his statements and speeches. Obama has vowed to give priority to diplomacy rather than military force in addressing international crises.

This has generated hopes of an end of US unilateralism, beginning of a new era of multilateralism and restoration of respect for international law, international organizations and negotiated settlements of disputes and differences.

The Iranians expect that the cloud of a military strike over their sky would soon disappear and the Obama Administration would directly negotiate with their leaders to end the nuclear stand-off. A large number of Iraqi people seem to be waiting for a day when their country would be free of foreign occupation forces. Cuba and Venezuela in the Western Hemisphere hope to establish cooperative ties with the new US. A number of African countries appear to be optimistic about a possible higher attention from the new Democrat Administration to their plights.

Major economic powers of Asia and Europe have begun to watch and weigh the foreign policy moves of the President-elect and his team of advisors. The steps to be adopted by the Obama Administration to fix the unregulated financial markets and restore normalcy to the country's economy will have a cascading effect on the economies of other countries.

Obama prefers fair trade to free trade and that means protectionist measures are bound to be espoused and embraced. The EU, Japan, China and India are all waiting to respond to Obama's foreign-economic policies.

The country that appears to harbour the maximum anxiety and apprehensions is, of course, Russia. The recent crisis in the Caucasus threatened to revive parts of the Cold War misperceptions, miscalculations and misadventures. Obama's approach to dealing with a resurgent Russia will impact upon the whole gamut of international politics.

Last but not the least, the Indian anxiety over the coming Democratic Presidency is crystal clear. The television coverage and the newspaper space allotted to the recent US Presidential election in India are truly unprecedented. While the Obama phenomenon is partly responsible for it, the Indian stakes in the US election has also considerably increased in the 21st Century.

The Indian economy is closely associated with the US market. The job losses in the brassware manufacturing in the Meerut region, the textile sector in Panipat and the diamond industry in Surat, among other things, are clearly reflective of the connectivity between the US market and the Indian economy. Successive Indian Government’s under both the NDA and the UPA have bloc by bloc developed closer defence and security ties with the outgoing Bush Administration.

However, there is serious unease in regard to the fate of the Indo-US nuclear deal. The US Senate has approved and passed the law to enable Indo-US civilian nuclear cooperation. But will it be implemented with similar vigour and interest shown during the Bush White House? Obama has no doubt supported the deal, but with hesitation and lacklustre enthusiasm. He is rather a great champion of non-proliferation and has expressed his desire to reopen the CTBT ratification process.

There are three areas where potential tension could be expected during the early months of the Obama Administration. First, is the question of outsourcing. If the new Administration, as part of the measures to fix the economy and fight unemployment, adopts policies that would cut outsourcing of jobs to Indians, it would certainly affect economic ties.

Second, Obama's statements on the Kashmir issue have already raised eyebrows in certain sections of the strategic community in India. The reported desire to appoint a special envoy to resolve the Kashmir issue has already extracted a response from the Indian Foreign Minster who has reiterated a long standing stance that Kashmir is a bilateral issue.

Third, the Obama Administration will most likely be staffed by some known champions of non-proliferation. Unless handled properly, the gains of the civilian nuclear cooperation initiative could be negated by a new political confrontation over proliferation issues.

Thus, it is time for intense deliberations and analysis to tackle the possible irritants and tensions in Indo-US relations. ---- INFA

 (Copyright India News & Feature Alliance)