Round The World
New Delhi, 10 October 2008
Nuclear Deal
LEGAL HURDLE OVER,
WHAT NEXT?
By Prof. Chintamani
Mahapatra
School of International Studies, JNU
The long struggle for concluding a nuclear deal with the United States
is at last over. The only remaining aspect of the deal is the actual signing of
the 123 agreement that is expected soon.
At first, there were expectations that the signing ceremony
would take place during Prime Minister Manmohan Singh's recent visit to the United States.
That did not happen as the US Congress was unable to give the green signal in
time. It was hindered because Parliament was not able to clear the deal early
enough, as there was a delay in getting the IAEA and NSG clearances. And, the main
factor behind this entire holdup was the Indian political parties’ inability to
form a consensus on the deal. Instead, the fierce debate over the issue almost
polarized the nation for a while.
Hopes were raised once again that the 123 agreement would be
inked during the recent visit of the US
Secretary of States Condoleezza Rice to New
Delhi. Apparently, the signing was further postponed
due to ‘remaining administrative formalities’ in Washington. To prevent further negative
speculations over the fate of the deal, Rice offered to sign the deal with
Foreign Minister Pranab Mukherjee, provided New Delhi was willing to do so. However, the
Government was in no hurry and preferred to wait until Washington completed all formalities.
Fortunately, hurdles for both the Bush Administration and the
Singh Government are finally over. The signing of the agreement is almost a
foregone conclusion. The three- year-long chase threatened to polarize the
Indian political spectrum to an extent whereby the deal would be given a decent
burial. But Manmohan Singh managed to get the requisite nod from Parliament. Likewise,
efforts were afoot in the US Congress to give a death blow to the India-specific
civilian cooperation bill at the final hour. However, the Bush Administration
succeeded in snatching the victory.
The big question now is: Whose victory is it any way? There
is little doubt that both the Indian and the US Governments can claim
accomplishment. Both struggled against the tide to promote Indo-US cooperation
in an unconventional and a controversial sector that had bedeviled bilateral
ties for over three decades. If they could achieve it in three years, it is no
mean achievement. Remember that the US-China 123 agreement was signed in 1985
and only recently it has begun to be implemented. The most recent 123 agreement
i.e. between the US and Russia is already in trouble because of the
crisis over Georgia.
Given the persistent opposition to the Indo-US nuclear deal
in both Washington and New Delhi, skeptics in the two countries
contend that it is going to be a long time before any concrete civilian nuclear
cooperation can materialize.
The first scenario that is being painted is about the fate
of the agreement after a change of guard in the US, following next month’s Presidential
election, even though both the Republican and the Democratic presidential
candidates have voted in favour of the deal.
John McCain, is a supporter of clean nuclear energy generation and is most
likely to implement the agreement. The Democratic Party candidate, Barrack
Obama, is a great champion of non-proliferation and is likely to strive for
Senate’s ratification of the CTBT and promote civilian nuclear cooperation with
New Delhi.
The second scenario over the future of the 123 agreement is
related to the forthcoming general elections in India. If the UPA government loses its
majority in the Lok Sabha, will the next Government—whether the NDA or a Third
Front—carry forward the nuclear commerce with the US? The BJP is not against the
commerce with the US,
but is not in favour with the conditionality enshrined in the deal. Will it try
to modify the contents or go ahead with nuclear commerce, if in power after the
polls? The Third Front with a strong participation of the Left Parties, on the
other hand, is likely to prevent any kind of nuclear commerce with the US.
The third scenario can be built around the assumption that
there will be a Republican Administration in Washington
in 2009 and a return of the NDA power in New
Delhi. The fourth scenario would consist of a
Democratic Administration in Washington and a
second term UPA Government sans Left constituents in New Delhi. Both the given scenarios would
bring about certain complications in the proper implementation of the nuclear
cooperation agreement.
The fifth scenario can be a Republican victory in the November
Presidential poll and the UPA without Left support garnering majority seats in
Parliament. This is the most ideal condition for quickest implementation of the
nuclear cooperation agreement. However, the simultaneous situation has the least
chance to materialize. The financial crisis which has severely hit the US economy and the ongoing inflation in India, among other
negative factors, will come in the way of a Republican and UPA victory respectively.
In other words, there is a long way to go before the nuclear
deal brings about any substantial improvement in relations between the two
countries. Fortunately, one major legal obstacle that has been removed in the process
is that there will be no technology denial to India. No country will be now
penalized under law or international convention by indulging in nuclear
commerce with India.
This is truly a great political triumph for New Delhi.
Notwithstanding some tough questions raised by the Indian
opponents, every one would appreciate that a major legal and psychological
hurdle has been removed for India
to acquire advanced nuclear technology from the international market. It would
be iniquitous, unreasonable and unjust to play down the role played by the Bush
Administration in this entire process. --- INFA
(Copyright,
India News and Feature Alliance)
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