Round The World

New Delhi, 10 October 2008

Nuclear Deal

LEGAL HURDLE OVER, WHAT NEXT?

By Prof. Chintamani Mahapatra

School of International Studies, JNU

The long struggle for concluding a nuclear deal with the United States is at last over. The only remaining aspect of the deal is the actual signing of the 123 agreement that is expected soon.

At first, there were expectations that the signing ceremony would take place during Prime Minister Manmohan Singh's recent visit to the United States. That did not happen as the US Congress was unable to give the green signal in time. It was hindered because Parliament was not able to clear the deal early enough, as there was a delay in getting the IAEA and NSG clearances. And, the main factor behind this entire holdup was the Indian political parties’ inability to form a consensus on the deal. Instead, the fierce debate over the issue almost polarized the nation for a while.

Hopes were raised once again that the 123 agreement would be inked during the recent visit of the US Secretary of States Condoleezza Rice to New Delhi. Apparently, the signing was further postponed due to ‘remaining administrative formalities’ in Washington. To prevent further negative speculations over the fate of the deal, Rice offered to sign the deal with Foreign Minister Pranab Mukherjee, provided New Delhi was willing to do so. However, the Government was in no hurry and preferred to wait until Washington completed all formalities.  

Fortunately, hurdles for both the Bush Administration and the Singh Government are finally over. The signing of the agreement is almost a foregone conclusion. The three- year-long chase threatened to polarize the Indian political spectrum to an extent whereby the deal would be given a decent burial. But Manmohan Singh managed to get the requisite nod from Parliament. Likewise, efforts were afoot in the US Congress to give a death blow to the India-specific civilian cooperation bill at the final hour. However, the Bush Administration succeeded in snatching the victory.

The big question now is: Whose victory is it any way? There is little doubt that both the Indian and the US Governments can claim accomplishment. Both struggled against the tide to promote Indo-US cooperation in an unconventional and a controversial sector that had bedeviled bilateral ties for over three decades. If they could achieve it in three years, it is no mean achievement. Remember that the US-China 123 agreement was signed in 1985 and only recently it has begun to be implemented. The most recent 123 agreement i.e. between the US and Russia is already in trouble because of the crisis over Georgia.

Given the persistent opposition to the Indo-US nuclear deal in both Washington and New Delhi, skeptics in the two countries contend that it is going to be a long time before any concrete civilian nuclear cooperation can materialize.

The first scenario that is being painted is about the fate of the agreement after a change of guard in the US, following next month’s Presidential election, even though both the Republican and the Democratic presidential candidates have voted in favour of the deal.  John McCain, is a supporter of clean nuclear energy generation and is most likely to implement the agreement. The Democratic Party candidate, Barrack Obama, is a great champion of non-proliferation and is likely to strive for Senate’s ratification of the CTBT and promote civilian nuclear cooperation with New Delhi.

The second scenario over the future of the 123 agreement is related to the forthcoming general elections in India. If the UPA government loses its majority in the Lok Sabha, will the next Government—whether the NDA or a Third Front—carry forward the nuclear commerce with the US? The BJP is not against the commerce with the US, but is not in favour with the conditionality enshrined in the deal. Will it try to modify the contents or go ahead with nuclear commerce, if in power after the polls? The Third Front with a strong participation of the Left Parties, on the other hand, is likely to prevent any kind of nuclear commerce with the US.

The third scenario can be built around the assumption that there will be a Republican Administration in Washington in 2009 and a return of the NDA power in New Delhi. The fourth scenario would consist of a Democratic Administration in Washington and a second term UPA Government sans Left constituents in New Delhi. Both the given scenarios would bring about certain complications in the proper implementation of the nuclear cooperation agreement.

The fifth scenario can be a Republican victory in the November Presidential poll and the UPA without Left support garnering majority seats in Parliament. This is the most ideal condition for quickest implementation of the nuclear cooperation agreement. However, the simultaneous situation has the least chance to materialize. The financial crisis which  has severely hit the US economy and the ongoing inflation in India, among other negative factors, will come in the way of a Republican and UPA victory respectively.  

In other words, there is a long way to go before the nuclear deal brings about any substantial improvement in relations between the two countries. Fortunately, one major legal obstacle that has been removed in the process is that there will be no technology denial to India. No country will be now penalized under law or international convention by indulging in nuclear commerce with India. This is truly a great political triumph for New Delhi.

Notwithstanding some tough questions raised by the Indian opponents, every one would appreciate that a major legal and psychological hurdle has been removed for India to acquire advanced nuclear technology from the international market. It would be iniquitous, unreasonable and unjust to play down the role played by the Bush Administration in this entire process. --- INFA

 (Copyright, India News and Feature Alliance)