Open Forum

New Delhi, 31 May 2007        

IPCC Predictions

TOWARDS DisastER IN Coming Decades

By Dhurjati Mukherjee

The recent reports of the Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) have raised grave apprehensions about the consequences of global warming. The seriousness of the problem has been clearly spelt out by scientists, economists and policy makers of over one hundred countries, which participated in the deliberations at Paris, Brussels and Bangkok. It cannot be denied that though the pattern of climate change was set off by greenhouse gas-emitting industrial processes in developed countries, the consequences of a heating planet are being experienced all over the world.

Delving into the past, the IPCC came out with its first report in 1990, which outlined the risks of warming and prompted governments to agree to a 1992 UN climate convention that set a non-binding goal of stabilizing greenhouse gases at 1990 levels by the year 2000. The target, however, was not met. In 1995, the IPCC report concluded that “the balance of evidence suggest a discernible human influence on global climate”, the first recognition that it was more than 50 per cent likely that humans were to blame.

The 2001 study that followed found “new and stronger evidence” linking human activities to rising temperatures. By that time several researches were conducted on different consequences of global warming all of which pointed to grave consequences if greenhouse gases were not controlled. Meanwhile, there was all-round pressure for the implementation of the Kyoto Protocol, which obliged 35 industrial nations to cut greenhouse gases by 5 per cent below 1990 levels by 2008-12.

This year, the first IPCC report (released at Paris) said that was ‘very likely” or at least 90 per cent certain that mankind was to blame for most of the warming in the last half century. The previous report (in 2001) had put up probability at ‘likely’ or at least 66 per cent. The present report projected a “best estimate” that temperatures would rise by 1.8 to 4 degrees C this century. 

The consequences, according to this report, are: loss of food production due to droughts with global production falling by 10 per cent and African production by 15 to 35 per cent; sea level rise up to 53cm with Bangladesh and Vietnam being the worst hit along with other coastal cities like Tokyo, New York, Hong Kong, Kolkata and Karachi; half the Arctic tundra at risk while the West Antartica ice sheet and the Greenland ice sheet starts to melt; more diseases as mosquitoes thrive exposing 80 million more people to malaria in Africa and 2.5 billion more to dengue fever; 20 to 50 per cent of land species threatened with extinction; and fresh water availability to be halved in Africa and Mediterranean.  

The second report released at Brussels sounded the warning accepting global warming to have disastrous consequences. It found increased flooding and rock avalanches within two or three decades and then led to decreased river flows as glaciers recede. Freshwater in large river basins in Central, South and East Asia would steadily decrease which, along with the high population and increasing demand, would affect more than a billion people by 2050.

The report further stated that illness and death from diarrhoeal diseases due to floods and droughts are expected to rise in the above regions due to change in the water cycle caused by global warming. “Increases in the coastal water temperatures would also exacerbate the abundance and toxicity of cholera in South Asia”, the report pointed out.

The IPCC observed that adaptation will be necessary to address impacts from warming, which has become unavoidable due to continued emissions of greenhouse gases that trap heat from the sun and raise global temperatures. The concern expressed in the report was indicative of the fact that something needed to be done at the earliest to check or control these deadly gases.

It is generally agreed that climate change would severely affect the tropics and specially India. Even a half metre rise in sea levels would have catastrophic effects in the coastal areas of India and Bangladesh. Parts of the Indian coast, including densely populated areas like Mumbai, would be inundated due to such rise, affecting a large section of the population. In fact, it is predicted that the entire coastline would face up to 20 per cent increased risk of cyclonic storms.

Glaciers cover nearly 38,000 sq. km. of the Himalayas which, in turn, account for 800 cubic km. of water. The Gangotri glacier is receding by 25 metres a year, the Pindari glacier by 23 metres, Bara Shigri by 36 metres and Zemu by 28 metres to name only a few. Rapid melt of this snow is expected to cause floods initially but by 2020 when glaciers would have significantly melted, the situation would be reversed, affecting the flow of the rivers. Ganga   would be a pale shadow of its current glory, shoreline cities would be compelled to build dykes to keep out the invading seas. The impact on agriculture is obvious as lack of water would reduce arable land and that, in turn, would affect the country’s food security.

Apart from this, three-fourths of India’s forests would undergo dramatic changes and its biggest catchments – Ganga and Brahmaputra – are expected to pose a grave risk of flooding to the region. Changes in forests would also impact watersheds and river systems. There are apprehensions that soil productivity and water systems are likely to impact the country’s food security. Scientific evidence suggests that the world has already walked the first few steps towards the catastrophe.

An important aspect of climate change is the shortage of water and in India this is predicted to drop from 1900 presently to 1000 by 2025. According to scientists, there is 90 per cent chance that more than a billion Asian would have to bear the brunt of global warning in diverse ways mid-way during this century. And obviously the poorer sections of society would be hardest hit, as Rajendra Pachauri, the Chairman of the IPCC, has pointed out: “It’s the poorest of the poor, and this includes the poor people even in prosperous societies, who are going to be hit the hardest”.

All countries, including India, would have to take drastic steps to shift from fossil fuels like coal and oil, the mitigation strategy suggested. While developed countries have been asked to alter their lifestyles and high consumption patterns, their developing counterparts like India, still much lower on per capita emissions of global warming gases, would have to undertake substantial changes in the transport sector, energy supply system, construction business and agriculture besides undertaking afforestation in a big way.

Though under the existing international agreement, India dies not need to commit to any targets for emission cuts, but when the Kyoto Protocol comes up for debate in December at the conference of all the member countries, there may be pressure for setting hard targets for developing countries. It may be mentioned here that the Kyoto Protocol is mandated to last till 2012 before which the new terms of global engagement would be fiercely negotiated. Till then the recommendations of the UN reports remain merely suggestive for India. However, the suggestion of the last report for countries switching from coal to gas for fuel needs, looking at nuclear energy as well as renewable sources like hydropower, solar and wind need to be seriously considered at this crucial juncture.---INFA

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