POLITICAL DIARY

New Delhi, 13 December 2008

Reality Check For BJP

By Poonam I. Kaushish

Cynics like me who thought that the era of people’s power had been muzzled out by the recent Mumbai mayhem and preceding blasts, what to speak of our crimino-politicos need to rethink hard. The recent State Assembly elections have underscored that Jan Shakti is alive and kicking. Viva la Indian democracy!

Whichever way one looks, these elections billed as a mini-general election will perhaps blaze a new trail in contemporary politics. Hopefully ushering in a new chapter in India’s turbulent political history. It has seen the emergence of a mature electorate, which has shunned the garbage of time-worn clichés and promises galore and plumped for development. Wherein, it has turned the thumb-rule of anti-incumbency on its head in Delhi, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh and plumped for its rulers.

Two, it has seen the rise of local regional leaders, underscoring that leadership has now shifted to local satraps who can pull off electoral victories. Three, performance, not ideology or charisma of the numero uno star campaigner has been rewarded. Four, unlike at the Centre, bi-polar politics continues to dominate in the States.

Undoubtedly, for the Congress its stunning victory in three out of five States – Rajasthan, Delhi and Mizoram has come as a much-needed morale booster after a dry spell in nearly a dozen Assembly polls since 2004. Clearly this should help it get over its image crisis and go in for a makeover. Once again its cadres seem rejuvenated. In fact, they are already donning the battle gear for General Election 2009, still a few months away.

Importantly, Delhi Chief Minister ‘decent genial Aunty’ Shiela Dikshit’s historic hat-trick victory in the State and the Party’s win in the other two States has sent a clear message to the Party High Command, read Sonia, that where there is clarity of State leadership the electorate has voted for it. And, it has lost in States where the High Command anointed rootless wonders, whose sole claim to fame was their allegiance to No 10 Janpath, along with its ‘please-all’ factional balancing act and distribution of tickets to regional satraps and their beta-betis.

For the BJP the poll results are a reality check. At two levels --- State and Centre. Its success in Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, clearly demonstrates that its State leadership was connected, committed and was successful in communicating their honesty and diligence to the well-being of their respective States. Both low-profile Shivraj Singh Chauhan and Raman Singh won on the power of their work in office. Unfazed by criticism and ridiculed as ‘nobody’s’ foisted by the Saffron Parivar these low-profile ‘one-of-us’ grassroot leaders stood their ground and continued to focus on the development agenda sprinkled with a heavy dose of personal integrity and honesty.

For its national leadership, specially Prime Minister-in-waiting LK Advani it is a wake-up call. Brimming with over-confidence, he strutted around as if he had already won his crown. But, the defeat in Delhi and Rajasthan is a clear ‘downer’, and that’s putting it mildly. With an over 50 per cent electorate comprising Gen Next and Gen Y, he was like a relic from the past, who droned on and on like a broken record of how the Congress-led UPA had done nothing for the betterment of India, on the terror front and rising inflation. Forgetting that its record on terrorism was no better and that the electorate viewed terrorism as a national issue and rising inflation as that of global meltdown.

Unlike its State leaders, Advani & Co failed to connect with an electorate that was looking for a positive agenda. Sadly, they seemed to be bereft of providing a coherent alternate and a constructive agenda to elevate India from its morass of poverty. By running 24X7 negative campaigns and demonizing its arch rivals, Advani forgot that parties won elections when they provide a stable alternate model of governance.

True, on a personal level, Advani was handicapped. He lacked the stature and charisma of Vajpayee, who could weave magic around a putty electorate. Leading to unfair comparisons, which severely handicapped his campaign. Add to it his total misreading of the electorate mood and his vitriolic attack on Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and Sonia, which did not go down well with the masses.         

Significantly for the first time, the Sangh Parivar shed its saffron robes. Realising that the lines between secular and communal forces and ideological differences between parties had blurred, the BJP regional satraps banked on the non-emotive growth and development plank. Purely on the strength of a campaign based on the BSP factor-- Bijli, Sadak and Paani, and not on the rabid Hindutva platform. Paving the way for the Sangh to hit the Lok Sabha campaign showcasing its victories in Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Himachal, Karnataka and Chhattisgarh. It is, however, a moot point whether the hardline Hindutva forces will abstain from whipping up emotive and divisive issues.

For Advani this 3-2 defeat couldn’t have come at a more inopportune time. These were among the last State Assembly polls before the General Election. It has not only shocked the Central leadership but offset Chauhan and Singh’s successes. Till recently, the PM-in-waiting was busy parading his erstwhile NDA allies as evidence of his growing acceptability. The Party claimed to have got “positive” mandates on the strength of his leadership. Dismissing its defeat in Rajasthan and Delhi to Vasundhara Raje’s ‘corrupt, callous and royal’ regime and VK Malhotra’s ‘not a chance’ against Aunty No 1.

Before the Congress starts preening and resting on the laurels of its victories it too needs to introspect. Unlike the BJP, India’s Grand Old Party has no second-rung leaders. Sonia Gandhi by herself is leader No 1, 2, 3….10. Followed by her son Rahul. Thus, its star campaigners in each State were the Congress CEO and its yuvraj.

None is willing to admit that the campaign floundered because the Party is caught in the time warp of 60s. It continues to cling to the old feudal mould of one person centric style in an era of corporate and computerised electioneering. Congressmen complain that it isn’t that the Party lacks talent or initiative, but they are not asked to contribute. Those who went found themselves hanging around in their hotels! Worse, many General Secretaries and State observers were too busy promoting themselves and creating their band of loyalists instead of concentrating on those whom it projected in the States.

Lastly, the Congress overwhelming victory will give the Union Government a lot of room to manoeuvre. For the Party’s UPA allies, the three victories have been a God-send. For starters, the pressure on Manmohan Singh will ease on two critical issues ---- internal security and inflation. He has ample time to repair the damage before the Elections. On terror he needs to adopt a more pro-active approach to make-up for loss of face.

Not only that. The Congress victories have for the time being got its recalcitrant allies like DMK’s Karunanidhi, NCP’s Sharad Pawar and RJD’s Laloo off its back. All these leaders who were busy giving sleepless nights to the Sonia-Manmohan duo by threatening to withdraw support or trying to extract a hard bargain in return need to rethink before cutting the UPA umbical cord.

What next? Will the Lok Sabha polls be preponed? Despite denials one cannot rule out the possibility. True, Manmohan Singh would like to complete his five-year term as the first Congress-led coalition Prime Minister. But many feel that the Party should make the most of the momentum and encash on the feel good factor. Others aver time is needed to set its house in order in two major states – UP and Bihar.  All in all, whether February or May matters little. Ultimately power resides with the people. A shakti that makes and breaks a politician. Need we say more.—INFA

(Copyright, India News and Feature Alliance)