Open Forum

New Delhi, 24 May 2007

Simple Story Made Complex

Uttar Pradesh Poll: A Post-mortem

By Dr. Syed Ali Mujtaba

The victory of the BSP was more due to default rather than any calculated design. In the triangular contest, the other two high profile parties; both the Samajwadi Party and the BJP had lost the poll even before the electioneering had begun. The Congress on the fourth place had never been in the political fray in any big way.

So there was nothing startling about the UP electoral results. Every thing has been on expected lines as the script was well-written before the elections. Those trying to read too much into this result are basically the ones who are fond of blowing the trumpet when the procession has hit the road.

As far as the BJP is concerned, it had lost the election the moment it distributed the controversial CD. Its poll managers thought that through the CD they would be able to polarize the society to the 1990 level and win the election hands down. The Muslims did not violently react and instead kept cool and so their strategy miserably failed. In fact, the CD dissuaded many people who might have initially thought of voting for the BJP. 

Even the “caste arithmeticians” of the BJP could not save their boat from sinking. The party remained a silent spectator to the breaking of the Brahmin-Bania alliance in spite of having stalwart upper-caste leaders like Atal Bihari Vajpayee, Murali Manohar Joshi, Rajnath Singh, all from the State in its ranks. Their strategy of patching up with, Kalyan Singh, the estranged OBC leader, too did not work. The former Chief Minister could not steal a single vote from the SP or the BSP's kitty. On the contrary, he presided over the loss of both upper caste and lower caste votes to the BSP and the SP.  

The BJP owes its ascendance in Indian politics to Uttar Pradesh. It had a dream run from 1986 to 1992 when it generated a mass hysteria among the innocent voters promising them the Ram Raj by constructing a Ram temple at Ayodhya where stood the Babari masjid. The gullible and religiously emotional people got enticed by their high profile campaign; Saugandh Ram ki khate hain, Mandir Wahin Banayenge (I vow in the name of Ram to construct the Mandir at the same spot where the Babari Masjid stands). The "Chalaks""Ram Naam ki loot machi hai, loot sako to looto" (there is a loot going on in the name of Ram, loot it if you can. (intelligent) who could sense the pulse of the time joined the BJP ranks because for them it was;

In 1989 the BJP had 89 seats, thanks to its temple campaign, its tally shot up to more than 200 seats in 1992. However, after the destruction of the Babari Masjid in 1992, its fortunes started tumbling down. The party since then has been witnessing a free fall. Currently it holds just 50 seats in the 403-member Assembly. Indeed, the results must be a day of rejoicing for the party’s rebel leader, Uma Bharti who had openly called some of the BJP leaders as "Satta ke dalal" – (‘Pimps for Power’).  

The outgoing Samajwadi Party had lost the confidence of the people and its rule had become synonymous with rampant corruption, nepotism and lawlessness (goonda raj). The Party failed to address any of the pressing developmental issues and got embroiled into many things that dented its poor, pro-dalit, and pro-minority image.

The SP leader, Amar Singh, who actually held the strings of power, had become an eyesore for his flamboyant lifestyle. His close proximity with actress Jayaparadha, actor Amithabh Bachchan, industrialist Anil Ambani and the owner of Sahara group of industries, left the people wondering whether the Samajwdi Party was championing the cause of the poor or it was a party of the rich. The Nithari killings were the last nail in the SP’s coffin. It had lost the election even before the dates for the polling were announced.  

As far as the Congress is concerned, the party was nowhere in the political race. It still has not been able to recover its lost base it enjoyed during the pre-1980s phase. Traditionally, the Congress was favoured by the upper castes and the Muslims. And in combination of certain other backward categories, it was able to cobble a majority during successive elections since independence. The Congress support base got totally demolished when religion versus pro-poor politics (Kamandal vs Mandal) came into play in Uttar Pradesh. The upper caste vote went to the BJP, the Muslims opted for the Samajwadi Party and Bahujan Samaj Party and the other backward categories and Schedule Castes too flocked to the SP or BSP ranks. So the Congress was left with nothing to fall back on.

Given such background, no matter how much Gandhi Parivar may have toiled their sweat and blood electioneering in the heat and dust of the Indo-Gangetic plains, they could hardly make any difference on the electorates. People may have flocked to the road shows of the Gandhi family, but when it came to voting, they had their own preferences. These days voters just do not vote for the name sake, they analyze the elections in terms of their own cost-benefit.

The Congress’ tally of 22 seats and its paltry vote percentage speaks volumes about the poor organizational strength of India's oldest political party. If this trend continues, the Congress may be reduced to a mere symbol on the electronic voting machines.

The BSP’s victory makes the picture crystal clear. The people of Uttar Pradesh had to choose between SP, BJP and the BSP. The SP had been thoroughly discredited during its rule and people wanted a change of Government. Now their choice was reduced to the BJP and the BSP. The BJP had shot itself in the foot by releasing the controversial CD. So the people had no other choice but to vote for the BSP. It is a simple story, made complex.

The only great thing about BSP’s victory was that it gave up its strident political campaign against the upper castes. Its direct attack on them saying; BJP ke Teen Dalal; Tilak, Tarazu aur Talwar (the BJP has three pimps; Brahmins (Tilak) Bania (tarazu) and Rajput (sword) was a very powerful piece of sloganeering that sums up the entire Indian history in terms of oppression by these three symbols of power all through its civilization.

The BSP having realized that such sloganeering could not catapult it to power in the previous elections, decided to drop this time and made friends with the upper castes. By giving tickets to the upper caste candidates, the party was able to get a comfortable majority.

The people of Uttar Pradesh must be complimented for giving a decisive mandate to a political party. Their collective effort saved the State from the ordeals of post-poll alliances and horse-trading that has become a hallmark of the Indian polity these days. This also shows the signs of maturating of the Indian democracy.

The people have had four core demands; road, water, electricity and job (sarak, paani, bijli aur naukri). They tried all the three political formations before; they have lived under the Ram Raj of the BJP, the Mulyam Raj and the Mayawait Raj, but none had been able to addressssing it right!   their basic demands. They have again brought the BSP to power. Will the new Government change the ground realities? Well, this is a tough call and no marks for gue

However, one great lesson to learn from the Uttar Pradesh elections is that the voters these days just do not vote for the name sake, they judge the party’s performance in power and select or reject them in the next poll. The next election is a long way from now, till then the people of Uttar Pradesh have no other go than to face the Maya Raj!---INFA

(Copyright, India News and Feature Alliance)