Round The World

New Delhi, 22 August 2008

Georgia Crisis

BRAND NEW COLD WAR

y Prof. Chintamani Mahapatra

School of International Studies, JNU

 The Russian military intervention in Georgia in response to alleged Georgian excesses in South Ossetia and the consequent US reaction symbolized by use of its military to supply humanitarian assistance to the war victims in that country indicates the return of the Cold War.

However, unlike the old Cold War between the capitalists and the communists, this brand new Cold War appears to be over energy resources and access routes to energy reserves. The emerging conflict of interest between the United States and Russia is the result of a series of events of the recent past in a typical action-reaction sequence.

First, Russia was a helpless complainant against systematic expansion of NATO membership to practically its door steps. While NATO did not accept Georgia's membership in its last April meeting, its decision to reconsider the application in December certainly angered Moscow.

But the most consistent Russian irritation against the US has been Washington's policy of extending its influence over energy resource-rich areas that have been traditionally within the Russian sphere of influence. To start with the US presence and influence in Central Asia have grown considerably since the 9/11 incident. The Bush Administration, in Russian perception, has made use of its strategy on the war on terror to increase its influence over the hydrocarbon rich Central Asia.

A more disturbing development in the Russian view is the open encouragement by the Bush Administration to efforts for the construction of alternative oil and gas pipelines to avoid the ones running through Russia or the Russian controlled areas.

This is a direct challenge to Moscow’s economic interests and Russia until recently did little to oppose it. On the other hand, Moscow tried to build energy cooperation with individual European countries. Two most significant recent energy cooperation agreements are between Russia and Italy and Russia and Germany.

Besides, Washington fears that Moscow's energy cooperation with Europe would enhance Russia’s political influence in the continent. Moreover, energy starved Europe would be more dependent on Russia for its industrial growth with passing years. Several European countries have begun to accept the Russian connection as a more stable source of energy security than the volatile and strife-torn Middle East. While Russia cannot offer a complete alternative to Middle Eastern oil, it can certainly supplement a great deal at a time when the energy crisis is lurking on the horizon.

The American apprehension lies in the fact that neither the EU nor NATO is united in responding to the Russian intervention in Georgia. While Moscow is concerned about NATO’s expansion to its doorsteps, Washington is clearly witnessing a divided alliance in NATO in dealing with a formidable former adversary. Additionally slowly but steadily Russia is strengthening its bond with European countries bilaterally by signing gas deals.

Significantly, energy is the key to understand the recent Russian military action against a potential NATO member, Georgia. In addition, the skyrocketing energy prices in the world market have made Russia richer, bolder and adventurous. What the former Soviet Union could not do during the Communist era has become possible for Russia to enact in the post-Cold War era. And that is: Use energy resource as an instrument of politics and diplomacy to check and balance American unilateralism.

The Bush Administration has taken strong measures against Russian military adventurism by employing its military to distribute humanitarian assistance in Georgia. There is a clear threat that Russia may have to face more serious consequences unless it ends its military occupation and withdraws its troops. The consequences could be raising the cost of Russia's membership in the WTO; turning the G-8 into G-7 once again and many more.

Such a ding-dong battle could certainly herald the arrival of a new Cold War. Russia could retaliate by lessening its cooperation in the six-party multilateral effort to resolve the nuclear problem in the Korean Peninsula; in preventing the emergence of a nuclear capable Iran; in combating terrorism in Afghanistan; in stabilizing Iraq and many other similar issues. The Cold War would truly be back and complicate international relations.

More catastrophic of this emerging Cold War would be the adverse implications on the energy market. Georgia, by the way, hosts two pipelines through its territory --- Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan and South Caucasus --- which are backed by the US as alternative routes to the ones running through Russian territory. While the US intends to increase its presence in Georgia to protect its energy interest, Russia does not want a strong American presence in its neighbourhood.

Not only that. American law makers have been calling for a new strategy to protect the country's energy interests. There is an effort to coordinate with the European countries to work towards a safer and more secured energy market. As part of the strategy, it has been suggested that a new mechanism and understanding should be devised to discourage countries from using energy resources as an instrument of politics.

Russia argues that South Ossetia and Abkhazia have a large Russian population and it has a moral right to protect their interests in the face of Georgian heavy-handedness. Georgia appeals to the international community to protect its territorial integrity. With the Americans and Russians at logger heads on various other issues, Georgia has become the battleground for the emerging Cold War.

The UN Security Council can do little to settle the issue, since Russia has the veto power. The trans-Atlantic alliance is unable to have an untied voice on this issue. Russia does not want to stop its muscle flexing unless its concerns are addressed and the US does not want yet another strong pole to emerge to challenge its global predominance. The world clearly has entered a new era of complex confrontation. --- INFA

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