Round The World

New Delhi, 12 August 2008

Musharraf’s Impeachment?

POLITICAL  DRAMA CERTAIN, INDIA CAUTIOUS

By Prof. Chintamani Mahapatra

School of International Studies, JNU

India must get ready to face the consequences of a forthcoming political disorder in neighbouring Pakistan. The determination of the ruling coalition led by the PPP with the support of another major political party, PML (N) to go ahead with an impeachment proceeding against President Musharraf and his unwavering unwillingness to step down are clear signs of that major political upheaval in the offing.

Asif Ali Zardari, co-chairman of the PPP, was not expected to start an anti-Mussarraf campaign until recently and was rather likely to keep Pervez Musharraf's uneasy company to balance the influence of Nawaz Sharif and his party, PML (N), in domestic politics. After all, it was an unwritten understanding between Musharraf and Zardari's wife and Pakistan's two-time Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto that had allowed the political process leading to elections in the country. 

Zardari was relieved of all charges of corruption as part of the political deal as well. The brutal murder of Benazir by terrorists led to a temporary finger pointing at Musharraf, but the dust soon settled and the PPP was expected to carry on the understating between Benazir and Musharraf.

However, Nawaz Sharif's hatred against Musharraf and vice versa is rather too well known. Nawaz was allegedly trying to sack General Musharraf, then the Army Chief, when the latter was on a trip to Sri Lanka. And the political exile of Nawaz after Musharraf staged a political coup in 1999 and captured power made the former ever more single-minded to remove Musharraf from power.

The two leading politicians of two major political parties of Pakistan, who are otherwise rivals, have united against a common political enemy. Both have suffered under the Musharraf regime and both appear resolute to take revenge. Politics of revenge and vendetta is not an unknown commodity in Pakistan. While Zardari is more than 100 per cent sure that he has the required number of supporters in the National Assembly and the Senate to get Musharraf impeached, the Pakistani President is also constitutionally empowered to dissolve the National Assembly or declare national emergency.

Military dictators all over the world have experienced the hell after being removed from power. They thus refuse to step down for fear of entering into the kingdom of hell. Three military dictators of Pakistan, all predecessors of General Musharraf, did not voluntarily abdicate office. And, Musharraf is unlikely to do so, especially when Zardari and Nawaz are trying to engineer his downfall.

All kinds of political speculation, calculations and rumour-mongering are rife in Pakistan today. Apparently, both friends and foes are advising Musharraf to resign from office before the impeachment process begins. While the grounds for removing the Head of the State are insanity or unconstitutional activities and Mussharaf is certain that he does not qualify, the Zardari-Nawaz duo are prepared to go beyond the constitutional provisions to paint Musharraf's face black. The attempt to get resolutions passed in the four provincial assemblies calling for Musharraf to take a vote of confidence is outside the constitutional provisions.

What is clear, however, is an intense battle between a former general and the civilian leadership in days and weeks to come. Several questions remain to be answered in the currently fast unfolding political events in Pakistan. Will the Pakistani Army back General Musharraf? The current Army Chief Kiani was hand-picked by Musharraf to lead the Army, but will he stand by the President at this moment crisis? Will the Bush Administration protect Musharraf, who was consistently praised for his bold cooperation in the American war against terror?

Actually, the White House and the Pakistani army are the two institutions that alone can protect Musharraf from being ousted. More significantly, the Pakistani army can come under pressure from the Bush Administration to support, oppose or stay neutral in the coming political confrontation. Of late, the White House has expressed considerable unhappiness over the performance of President Musharraf on the war front against the Taliban and Al Qaeda. The resurgence of the Taliban in Afghanistan, the Al Quaeda hideouts in Pakistan's North West Frontier Province and several other developments have led the US officials to doubt the ability and credibility of Musharraf in assisting the anti-terror efforts.

In yet another impediment to beleaguered President Musharraf, the American Democratic Party has said that the US cannot offer a blank cheque to Pakistan's "undemocratic President" as the tribal areas in that country have become a "sanctuary for al Qaeda" and pose a serious threat to the US and Afghanistan.

The US, which gives billions of dollars of economic and military assistance to Pakistan, exercises considerable influence over the Pakistani army as well. Between Washington and Musharraf, General Kiani will certainly be with the former. Since the PP and PML (N) and many other political groups in Pakistan are anti-Musharraf and there are also reports of defection from Musharraf-backed party, PML (Q), Kiani's job will be easier, if he chooses to stay neutral or ask President Musharraf to step down.

However, Musharraf is a tough nut to crack. He will certainly not step down. He may assist the US by siding with the army in a fresh round of battles against the Jihadis and try to save his skin. The US knows that it is the Pakistani army that can deliver on the war front and not the coalition civilian leaders such as Zardari and Sharif.

It is thus too early to script the last scene in the unfolding political drama in Pakistan. But the trouble is Pakistan's political instability is spreading at a time when Jammu and Kashmir is gripped by communal divide. The potential spill-over effect from across the border is truly worrisome. The consequences, moreover, are unpredictable. The Indian leadership needs to take careful stock of developments in Pakistan to shield an unstable Kashmir from unacceptable and harmful effects from the other side of the border. ---INFA

(Copyright, India News and Feature Alliance)