People & Their Problems

New Delhi, 18 July 2008

Climate Change Plan

ENERGY EFFICIENT LIVING VITAL

By Dhurjati Mukherjee

Climate change is no longer a distant scientific prognosis but has become a reality today. The anthropogenic increases in emissions of greenhouse gases and aerosols in the atmosphere have steadily resulted in a change and rise in the Earth’s temperature. Apart from the melting glaciers and ice-caps, climate change has had a powerful effect on our lives. With floods inundating Mumbai streets or some other part of the country every year, the monsoon-causing dengue outbreaks in Delhi each year and heat waves becoming a part of Chennai life, environmental changes are touching our lives every day.  

It is in this perspective that the relevance of the country’s National Action Plan on Climate Change has to be seen as a step in the right direction as energy-efficient living has become imperative today. “Our vision is to make India’s economic development energy efficient”, the Prime Minister declared releasing the document. This is expected to spur action by different arms of the Government, sections of the industry and eventually by all stakeholders in society. The Plan makes it clear that steps are part of an overall strategy to “promote development objectives while also yielding co-benefits of addressing climate change effectively”. 

The Action Plan aims to boost solar power generation in the country besides launching 7 other programmes in mission mode towards greenhouse gas reduction and adaptation to inevitable climate change. A national solar energy mission would promote expansion of solar-powered electricity and fund research projects specifically aimed at developing “disruptive innovations” that would help solar energy compete with fossil fuels. The mission is also expected to increase local photo-voltaic productions to a level of 1000MW per annum as early as possible though this may take some time to actually become a reality. 

Both China and India have come under growing pressure to take measures to reduce future emissions and adoption of cleaner technologies and this has been envisaged in the Action Plan. However, it needs to be pointed out here that richer and more polluting nations like the US with a per capita emission figure of 20.1, European Union 9.40 and Japan 9.87 ought to implement the Kyoto Protocol reduction targets before expecting developing countries to make parallel commitments. Besides, the Kyoto Protocol expires in 2012 and discussions are already underway to finalize another more comprehensive agreement by the end of next year. 

Also, like China, India has stuck to its official position of not setting itself any CO2 emission reduction targets. China is currently implementing the ‘20% Target’ which aims to cut the amount of energy consumed per dollar of economic output by 20% within the next two years. This is expected to cut 1.5b tonnes carbon dioxide emissions annually by 2010 and removing 234 large (1000MW) old coal-fired power plants. Similarly, India has rightly decided to formulate an Action Plan and take some measures in this regard.

Meanwhile at the G-8 conference held Japan recently, leaders of the world’s richest nations pledged “to move towards a low carbon society” and endorsed the idea of cutting greenhouse gas emission (GHG) in half by 2050. However, they did not specify whether the starting point would be current levels or 1990 levels and refused to set a short-term target for reducing the gases, though climate change ‘is one of the great global challenges of our time”. The developing countries (G-5) in a statement released at the Summit pointed out that the developed countries take the lead in achieving ambitious and absolute GHG emissions reduction. The G-5 said the developed countries should aim at emission cuts of 25 to 40% of the 1990 levels by 2020 and 80 to 95% by 2050.  

Steps to combat global warming has become imperative today as various scientific studies have concluded the adverse effects of temperature increase on human life and its prosperity. For example, an impact assessment on the hydrology of Indian rivers has found out that conditions may deteriorate in terms of severity of droughts and floods in several parts of the country. Kutch and Saurashtra which occupies about one-fourth of the area of Gujarat and 60% of Rajasthan would face acute water shortage conditions. Even the Cauvery and Ganga would experience seasonal (or regular) water-stressed conditions while Godavari and Mahanadi are predicted to face flood conditions. Water scarcity may become a reality in most parts of the country in the not-too-distant future.

The other important aspect of climate change and increased precipitation will be on agricultural productivity. While in some regions, the increase in local mean temperature of up to 1-3 degrees C may increase production, there is expected to be a fall in crop yields of as much as 25% as the tropics would be greatly affected.

A study done in 2001 projected that with 2 degrees C increase in temperature and 7% increase in precipitation, the net revenue of the country would decline by 8.4%. Losses expected from climate change on agriculture would be more. This would be due to warmer conditions that the farmers face under the present climatic conditions, specially the small and marginal farmers with less land holding.

The impact on coastal areas would come from the rise in sea level and the possibility of more storms. The most important concern is the future of the low-lying delta regions, particularly in the Ganges in the eastern part of the country. A one metre sea level rise would inundate up to 30,000 sq km in Bangladesh and more than 5000 sq km in India, displacing millions of coastal dwellers. Besides, losing space, coastal areas would be adversely affected by salt water intrusion into groundwater aquifers and stronger storm surges.

Climate change will also lead to an increase in the incidence of diseases as it affects the breeding environment of disease vectors. In India (and in most tropical countries), the rise in temperature is expected to spread malaria endemic in a much larger area while water scarcity (coupled with lack of sanitation) may lead to an increase in water-borne diseases. The nutrition status may also be affected as warming may affect crop productivity because of its location.

A recent report has found that India would overtake the US as the second largest emitter of carbon from energy use by 2050 after China. “Together these two emerging giants are projected to account for around 45% of global carbon emissions from energy by 2050 compared with only around 20% of the global trade for the US and the EUcombined”, the report predicted.

Managing climate change involves exhaustive exploration and discovery of organizational potential, business processes and options for GHG abatement through research and development. Adoption of the right strategy for mitigating long-term climate change risks need to be taken immediately. While renewable energy resources have to be harnessed with appropriate technology on a time-bound basis, control of emissions have also to be taken up in an effective manner. We need to integrate ‘carbon risk and opportunity’ into a company’s core strategy framework for navigating it towards a new sustainable growth horizon.

Clearly, the National Environment Policy 2006 and the National Action Plan on Climate Change 2008 should help the country take the proper steps towards climate change mitigation strategies. We need to identify and check climate change impacts on human health, water resources, coastal areas and agriculture and formulate programmes and strategies for effective promotion and implementation in areas like watershed management and rainwater harvesting, coastal zone planning and regulation, agricultural technologies and practices and health programmes.     

The key to reduce GHG lies in expanding renewable energy like solar and wind power and reducing dependence on carbon-laden fossil fuels through optimum energy efficiency. Sadly, the Action Plan does not specify regulatory enforcement of energy efficiency standards on any industry, except automobiles though there has been a shift in approach wherein growth is contemplated through renewable energy. In fact, the process has already started and even private firms are being encouraged to set up solar, hydro and wind-based power plants.

Further, India has plans to have 15% electricity from renewable resources by 2020 and experts believe it would save 10,000 MW by 2012. If proper steps are taken at this point of time and renewable energy exploited in a big way, the emission increase projections of the country in the coming years might be controlled to a considerable extent. ---INFA     

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