Round The World

New Delhi, 15 July 2008

Embassy Attack In Kabul

ANTI-INDIA terrorists open new front

Prof. Chintamani Mahapatra

School of International Studies, JNU

India's fight against terrorism is no longer confined to its borders. The terrorist bombing of its embassy in Kabul does not appear to be a one-time terrorist assault on Indian facilities and interests abroad. It may very well be the beginning of a new trend that requires careful planning and execution on the part of New Delhi to prevent future occurrences.

Although India has been fighting terrorism largely within its borders for decades, neighbouring countries, particularly Pakistan, Nepal and Bangladesh have often been used by anti-India terrorists as safe heavens or bases for training and launching operations. But except loud complaints against cross-border terrorism, sometimes sponsored by Islamabad and at other times silently encouraged, New Delhi has not been able to do much. The long peace process with Pakistan has certainly brought considerable benefits to India in tackling terrorist infiltration into Kashmir. But terrorist activities in other parts of the country have clear footprints of Pakistani connection. 

New Delhi has also not been able to put in place any strong bilateral mechanism with Nepal or Bangladesh either to credibly tackle terror. One of the major problems it faces viz these two countries is the absence of a durable governing system. Besides, neither Nepal nor Bangladesh seems to have developed a similar security outlook with India, for participating in cooperative ventures to combat terrorism.

Significantly, Indian facilities or interests in Nepal, Bangladesh or even in Pakistan are not known to have been the target of terrorist groups. Despite dispatch of the Indian Peace Keeping Force to Sri Lanka and its engagement in battles with the LTTE, Indian facilities there have not been targeted so far. The recent attack in Kabul, in which India lost four personnels is thus a new development. It shows signs of a dangerous trend and how New Delhi handles it, will set an example for potential terrorists elsewhere.

Importantly, India has invested a huge amount of capital, human resource and diplomatic stake in Afghanistan, unlike in Nepal and Sri Lanka. When the Maoists launched a long low-intensity war in Nepal, India's role was pretty much limited. Except a brief period of IPKF deployment, India's role in taming LTTE terror has also been rather limited. Thus, the Afghan case stands out.  

India has invested several hundred millions of dollars in Afghanistan. Indian engineers, technicians and skilled labour are busy rebuilding the war-torn infrastructure. Unlike in India's neighbourhood, the Afghan Government led by Karzai is in the friendliest of terms with New Delhi, which has not deployed any troops there and is currently engaged only in reconstruction and state-building. Why was then there a suicide attack on the Indian embassy?

It is important to note that many more local Afghans died in the attack than the Indians.  Who were these people? They were either employees in the embassy or visa seekers. Who did the suicide bomber target then? Those locals, who were apparently friends of India or the embassy building viewed as a high-value target? Was it an expression of opposition to Indian participation in Afghan reconstruction? Was it a signal of Pakistan’s unhappiness over the spread of Indian influence in Afghanistan?

It is unlikely that Afghans of any sect would be opposed to reconstruction activities in their country. But Afghan resistance groups, primarily the Taliban and their backer, the  al Qaeda, are not only hostile to the presence of foreign troops on their soil, but also have opposed reconstruction efforts of the United Nations, other international agencies and individual countries, such as India.

Several reports point out that the number of attacks on civilian construction workers and international aid agencies has been mounting in Afghanistan. The Taliban and their supporters perhaps are afraid that successful reconstruction in the country would turn the people against them and they would lose the steam to carry their mission forward.

New Delhi’s allegation that Pakistan’s ISI has had a hand in this attack appears to be logically convincing. During the Soviet occupation, the ISI was CIA's pet organization in training and equipping the anti-Soviet Mujaheedin forces in Afghanistan. Now, it is a target under surveillance. Secondly, the reverses faced by the US-led coalition forces in Iraq, NATO forces in Afghanistan, Iranian ability to withstand the US pressure on nuclear issue and the inability of Islamabad to tackle the law and order situation in the States bordering Afghanistan have not only emboldened the Taliban but also the ISI.

The US, the Musharraf regime and the Karzai Government have all failed to check the growth of Taliban influence in Afghanistan as well as Pakistan. The political uncertainty in Islamabad since the parliamentary election and the institution of a civilian government has, moreover, provided a fertile soil for the dreaded ISI to once again spread its tentacles and renew its cooperative ties with the Taliban in Afghanistan and its sympathizers in Pakistan. The anti-American sentiments among the Pakistani people and the inability of its Government, civilian or military, to defy the United States openly makes the ISI bold enough to engineer the terrorist attacks one recently witnessed in Kabul.

While the Pakistani Government may be legally correct to disown responsibility for the attack on the Indian embassy in Kabul, it is unlikely to take any preventive or corrective measures against such terrorist activities. This is for the simple reason that Indian influence in Afghanistan has been apparently growing. In the recent past Pakistan was seeking to acquire strategic depth in Afghanistan. It was the brain and the hands behind the rise of the Taliban to power in Afghanistan. But for the 9/11 attacks on the US, Pakistan would have been the king maker in Kabul. However, the US and NATO intervention destroyed its hopes. The US also forced Pakistan to cut off ties with Taliban. Now when India's influence in Afghanistan is growing, Islamabad's worries too are mounting. While it is possible that the current Pakistani government doesn’t have a hand in this suicide blast, but if it denies ISI role, it can be thoroughly discounted.

Having said that, reports about New Delhi dispatching special forces to Afghanistan, forging strategic ties with the Karzai government against terrorism and determined to move ahead with construction work despite terror threats, are not so heartening.  It may very well prove to be the beginning of a deeper involvement in Afghanistan, consequences of which are unknown to have been analyzed adequately.--INFA

(Copyright, India News and Feature Alliance)