Round The World
New Delhi, 30 June 2008
North Korea Nuclear Halt
HARD BARGAIN FOR TOTAL DISARM
By Dr. Monika Chansoria
Research Fellow, Centre for Land
Warfare Studies, New Delhi
North Korea eventually appears trudging towards
halting the advancement of its nuclear programme, with Pyongyang
officials handing over a dossier to China, the host nation of the
six-party talks since 2003. This latest development is one in a long series towards
the scrapping of the nuclear weapons programme of the cloistered Northeast
nation in exchange for aid and diplomatic concessions and to ensure a
non-nuclear and peaceful Korean peninsula.
In what was widely presumed as a gesticulation of its intent
at bringing the nuclear weapons programme to a standstill, North Korea blew up
a 60-foot cooling tower at North Korea’s largest nuclear facility at Yongbyon,
60 miles north of Pyongyang on Friday last. The destruction of the tower ended as
the structure collapsed into a large heap of debris, which was being witnessed
by both international and regional television broadcasters, in effect the
world.
North Korea’s handing over the inventory of its nuclear
programme, paves the way for its removal from the US’ terror blacklist and
Washington has responded to the same after receiving confirmation that North
Korea had indeed, handed over the details of its nuclear facilities to China.
Commenting on the developments, White House spokesperson
Dana Perino said, “The United States welcomes the North Korean declaration of
its nuclear programme and will respond to North
Korea’s actions by announcing our intent to rescind North Korea’s
designation as a State sponsor of terror.”
Subsequently, this statement was stamped with the final
approval by US President George W. Bush, while he addressed the Press at the
White House and stated, “North Korean officials submitted a declaration of
their nuclear programme to the Chinese government as part of the six-party
talks and thereby I am issuing a proclamation that lifts the provisions of the
Trading with the Enemy Act with respect to North Korea.”
“Secondly, I am notifying Congress of my intent to rescind North Korea’s
designation as a State sponsor of terror in 45 days. The next 45 days will be
an important period for North
Korea to show its seriousness of its
cooperation. This can be a moment of opportunity for North Korea. If North Korea continues to make the right choices,
it can repair its relationship with the international community—much as Libya has done
over the past few years,” Bush added.
Just as news of the announcement by Washington
trickled in, Pyongyang welcomed its deletion from
the US’
terrorism list and removal of sanctions. Its Foreign Ministry promptly issued a
statement through the official Korean
Central News Agency stating, “The US measure should lead to a complete and
all-out withdrawal of its hostile policy toward [North Korea] so that the
denuclearization process can proceed smoothly.”
Obviously, Washington
appears wary of North Korea
and is approaching the entire process with caution, given the endless history
of sporadic and fitful deliberations on the North’s nuclear programme. And,
thus detailed verification of the disclosures made by Kim Jong II’s regime
would be particularly vital in the near future.
The North Korean nuclear crisis has continued unabated especially
since October 2002, when Washington confronted
Pyongyang on breaking the terms of a 1994
agreement (Agreed Framework) by reprocessing uranium and more prominently, the admission
by founder of Pakistan’s
nuclear programme, AQ Khan that he was involved in proliferating nuclear
technology to North Korea
in 2004.
After having been involved in the six-party (the US, China,
Russia, Japan, South Korea, and North Korea) negotiations aimed at bringing
about a breakthrough to the nuclear impasse for three years, Pyongyang stunned
the world on October 9, 2006 by testing a plutonium-based nuclear weapon and
becoming the latest entrant to the world’s nuclear club.
The North Korean nuclear issue constituted the first major
nuclear nonproliferation crisis of the post-Cold War era, when Pyongyang faced stringent economic sanctions
for numerous years in addition to political isolation. Yet, North Korea not
only existed, but also attracted global prime time coverage, with its nuclear
and missile brinkmanship diplomacy.
Even though there is reason to believe that the Kim Jong II
now seems ready to go ahead towards disarmament, there are numerous questions
that remain unanswered and several possibilities that still are under a thick
realm of uncertainty.
These include the fact that although the sanctions under the
provisions of the Trading with the Enemy Act have been lifted, sanctions that North Korea
faces for its human rights violations, the conducting of its nuclear test in
2006 and its weapons proliferation will all stay in effect. In addition, all
United Nations Security Council sanctions will too be firmly in place.
The US
and other nations involved in resolving the nuclear stalemate would have to
address various significant realities on ground vis-à-vis Pyongyang’s nuclear journey. These include
resolving outstanding questions on its highly-enriched uranium and
proliferation activities as well as relinquishing its already separated stock
of plutonium.
Crucially, North
Korea possesses a total estimated plutonium
stock of between 46 and 64 kg, of which about 28-50 kg is estimated to be in
separated and usable form. Therefore, it would not be prudent to be too
optimistic about the sealing and shutdown of the Yongbyon reactor and the
destruction of the cooling tower.
North Korea would certainly not give up its
nuclear card simply. It would be unwilling to take the road to disarmament unless
and until it secures massive economic bargains as well as security guarantees
for itself from the nations that have been in deliberations with the Northeast
Asian nation.
It appears cogent that any likely solution would fall into
the category of a grand barter and expectedly, Kim Jong II would repeat the
pattern of hard bargaining. Pyongyang’s
march towards complete disarmament and renouncing its entire nuclear capability
palpably entails a heavy price tag. ---INFA
(Copyright,
India News and Feature Alliance)
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