Round The World

New Delhi, 5 May 2008

Pakistan’s Shaheen-II

RACE FOR MISSILE SUPREMACY

By Dr. Monika Chansoria

(School of International Studies, JNU)

South Asia has yet again plunged into a quest for missile supremacy, with Pakistan successfully test firing the Shaheen-II long-range, surface-to-surface ballistic missile last month from an undisclosed location. Also referred to as the Hatf-VI, the missile has a 2000 km (1,245 miles) range and is capable of carrying nuclear as well as conventional warheads.

The Pakistan army’s Strategic Forces Command launched the Shaheen-II during a field training exercise on April 19, 2008. According to a statement released later by the military, “Shaheen-II is a two-stage solid fuel missile that can carry nuclear and conventional warheads with high accuracy. The launch of the missile was part of the process of validation of the operational readiness of a strategic missile group and technical improvements to consolidate and verify various land-based strategic missile systems.”

Shaheen-II is the longest-range ballistic missile of the several missiles in Pakistan’s nuclear-capable arsenal qualifying to hit targets anywhere in India, Iran, as well as Afghanistan through to Central Asia.

Recently appointed Pakistan Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani witnessed the testing of Shaheen-II and termed it as an ‘important milestone in Pakistan’s quest for sustaining strategic balance’ in South Asia. His presence was symbolic in that it was an indicator of the fact that the newly-elected government in Pakistan was well in control of the political and military establishments of the country.

In addition, Chairman, Joint Chiefs of Staff Committee General Tariq Majeed and Defence Minister Ahmed Mukhtar also witnessed the missile test. Commenting on the reliability of Pakistan’s nuclear capability, Navy Chief Admiral Muhammad Afzal Tahir congratulated those responsible for the ‘successful launch and the accuracy of the missile at the target. Pakistan could be proud of the reliability of its nuclear deterrence and the country would further enhance its nuclear capability.’

Islamabad’s foreign office spokesman said Pakistan’s strategic force goals were determined by the requirements of minimum overt deterrence. “We have to test these missiles from time to time. The reach of the missile should be enough to deter aggression. When we do take the test, we inform neighbours and concerned countries. It reflects Pakistan’s resolve to maintain minimum credible deterrence as the cornerstone of its security policy.”

The National Defence Complex, a subsidiary of the Pakistan Atomic Energy Commission directly manages the Shaheen project. However, unlike the liquid-fueled Ghauri, the Shaheen-II uses a two-stage solid propellant motor. Solid fuel can be left in the missile indefinitely, unlike liquid fuel, and therefore, dramatically decreases the time it takes to launch the missile thereby heightening deterrence.

Various defence analysts are of the opinion that Shaheen-II is possibly a two-stage version of the M-9, or more likely a copy of the Chinese M-18, which was publicly displayed at an exhibition in Beijing in 1988. The M-18 was originally advertised as a two-stage system with a payload capacity of 400-500 kgs over a range of 1,000 kms. US intelligence sources suggest that Pakistan remains heavily reliant on external assistance for Shaheen-II programme and that China is actively assisting Pakistan through the supply of missile components, specialty materials, dual-use items, and other miscellaneous forms of technical assistance.

Since the late 1980s and early 1990s, Pakistan has invested in both solid-motor and liquid-engine ballistic missile programmes with significant Chinese and North Korean assistance, respectively. In the early 1990s Islamabad acquired Chinese M-11 missile parts along with a number of M-9 Short Range Ballistic Missiles (SRBMs).

Furthermore, the Chinese assistance extended to training Pakistani missile crews in the assembly, maintenance, and simulated launches of these missiles. Chinese assistance most likely encompassed equipment and technology transfers in the areas of solid-fuel propellants, manufacture of airframes, re-entry thermal protection materials, post-boost vehicles, guidance and control, missile computers, integration of warheads, and the manufacture of transporter-erector launchers (TELs) for the missiles.

In 1991, the US objected to Chinese sales of M-11 ballistic missile technologies to Pakistan and for the first time imposed sanctions on China in accordance with the newly passed Missile Technology Control Act. The sanctions were imposed for alleged exports of M-11 ballistic missiles to Pakistan. Soon after the US sanctions, Beijing agreed to observe the MTCR guidelines.

Subsequently, Washington waived off sanctions only to re-impose them back when evidence indicated continuing Chinese missile sales to Pakistan from 1992-93. In December 1992, reports surfaced that China had transferred 34 complete M-11 missiles to Pakistan and also allegedly built a turnkey missile plant for Pakistan at Tarwanah, a suburb of Rawalpindi, in violation of its 1991 pledge. As a result, in May 1993, the Clinton Administration re-imposed MTCR-related sanctions against China.

Apparently, development flight tests of the Shaheen-II began in March 2004 when a 26-tonne missile was launched from Pakistan’s Somiani Flight Test Range in the Arabian Sea. According to the Chairman of Pakistan’s National Engineering and Scientific Commission, Samar Mubarakmand, the missile covered a distance of 1,800 kms during the test. Thereafter, reports in summer 2007 stated that Pakistan had commenced the process of deployment of the Shaheen-II.

Besides, there could well be numerous factors that play a crucial role in the growing dominance of the missile leg in Pakistan’s weapons arsenal. Pakistan has been unable to augment its fleet of modern combat aircrafts due to the past US policy of military and economic sanctions designed to arrest and slow down Pakistan’s nuclear weapons programme.

Even though Pakistan is now a US ally in the global war on terrorism, Washington has been rather hesitant to supply Islamabad with advanced combat aircrafts as it would invariably add to the latter’s nuclear strike capability. Furthermore, the country’s frail economy has prevented the Pakistan Air Force from undertaking major fleet expansion and modernization efforts by making the switch from US to European and Russian suppliers. Finally, the unfolding and potential advances in India’s air-combat, air-defence, and long-range reconnaissance capabilities seem to be channeling Pakistani investments into bolstering its ballistic missile-based capabilities. 

For this reason, the missile test by Pakistan is yet another trigger at altering the existing strategic equation in South Asia. On its part, India for decades has countenanced the Chinese-Pakistan nuclear and missile collaboration as one of the gravest challenges posed to its peace and security and the testing of Shaheen-II is the newest testament to the same. In all certainty, the near future is likely to witness counter reactions to this recent initiation by Pakistan, thereby plunging the subcontinent into yet another stage of a spiraling arms race.--INFA

 (Copyright, India News and Feature Alliance)