ROUND THE WORLD
New Delhi, 28 March 2006
Energy Deficit
Emerging
Threat to Security
By Dr. Chintamani
Mahapatra
School of International Studies, JNU
Scarcity always breeds insecurity. Nothing is more scarce
today than energy. As new economic power houses like India
and China
would demand more energy in years to come, problems are bound to arise.
Nothing is a greater threat to India in coming years than an assured available source of energy to fuel the now
galloping Indian economic growth. For years now Indian strategic analysts were
predicting about a possible scramble
for energy resources by fast developing economies as the major fountain of
international insecurity. Now the days of that insecurity appear to be approaching
fast.
Along with China,
Indian demand for energy to fuel economic growth will most likely destabilize
the global energy market and no country, including the developed countries of America and Europe
can remain unaffected. The hurried manner in which the Bush Administration
concluded a civilian nuclear deal with it to enable India to diversify its sources of
energy can be easily understood in the light of the energy question. There is a
fear that China and India might
compete for energy on the international stage and that itself is a potential
area of dangerous conflict.
Both India
and China are busy searching
for newer sources of oil, gas and other sources of energy in the traditional
region of hydrocarbon resources, such as the Middle East and in Africa and Latin America and aggressively
making deals.
In order to prevent such conflicts from emerging, many
countries, including the US,
Saudi Arabia and India and China are trying very hard to
develop cooperative models of energy cooperation. Before Saudi King came to India in January this year and struck energy
deals, he had already done so in China as well. The United States has recently signed an agreement
with India
for civilian nuclear cooperation and the Bush Administration is striving hard
to sell this agreement to the US Congress
and the Nuclear Suppliers’ Group. But the US
had a similar agreement much earlier with China
and, in fact, it gave a green signal to Westing House Company to sell civilian
reactors to China
in December 2005.
Significantly, India too took the initiative in convening in
New Delhi a round table in January 2005 and November 2005 of principal energy
suppliers (Saudi Arabia, UAE, Kuwait, Iran, Qatar, Oman) with principal
Asian (India, China, Japan, Korea) to
create a cooperative relationship. This step was aimed at preventing a sense of
rivalry and creation of an Asian version of the International Energy Association. The ultimate goal of Indian approach
seems to be establishment of an Asian Oil and Gas Community.
Simultaneously, the Government of India has systematically
been engaged in striking energy deals with a host of countries in all
directions. The proposed gas pipeline deal with Iran,
attempts to acquire gas from Myanmar
and Bangladesh in the east,
the recently-concluded agreement with Mauritius
to tap its sources of energy, exploration of sources of energy in Africa and Latin America are but a few examples of the intense
Indian effort.
India’s Petroleum Minister recently wrote
in an article that India is
located at the crossroads of energy
resources and that “to our east lie Bangladesh
and Myanmar,
both with high potential in natural gas. The central task of our oil diplomacy
is going to be that of bringing Myanmar
gas through the Northeast, and possibly
through Bangladesh, into India. Besides
feeding east and north-east India from Myanmar, north India from Central Asia
and west India from Iran, we also need a series of LNG terminals along both the
east and west coasts of peninsular India to access
gas as LNG from points as disparate as Qatar, Australia and Sakhalin.”
Our traditional ties with Russia, the emerging
relationship with the United
States, the proposal to enhance all-round
relationship with the members of the Gulf Cooperation Council are all aimed at
securing the sources of energy. India
has simultaneously not ignored the domestic sources of generating energy, both
nuclear and fossil fuels and hydro
power. However, India’s
rising dependence on foreign sources of energy is a foregone conclusion. The
emerging role of India as a
global political and economic player is coinciding with increasing dependence
of India
on others for energy.
Consequently, India has to prepare itself both
militarily and diplomatically for protecting its foreign sources of energy for
uninterrupted supply. Energy should drive India’s foreign policy and
diplomatic engagements in years to come. A healthy relationship with the
neighbours thus becomes a pre-requisite for India’s unhindered economic growth.
It is dire lesson
that as India
grows in power, it simultaneously becomes more and more vulnerable. It is
unlikely that nation-states would threaten India’s energy security in the
future. In fact, even a country like Pakistan is prepared to establish
cooperative ties in maintaining energy security. It is a win-win situation.
When Bangladesh refused to
cooperate, India approached Myanmar for an alternative route for its gas
supply to India.
Loser was Bangladesh.
The win-win situation for every country big and small thus
has the potential to give a new direction to international politics and
economics. Energy cooperation will mean co-prosperity and lack of cooperation
will mean difficulty and stunted growth of economy for all. The opportunity
cost of non-cooperation will high enough in years to come to induce energy
suppliers and consumers for mutual cooperation.
But the real threat will come from the non-state actors,
including the international crime syndicates, insurgents and sub-national
groups in revolt and above all terrorist organizations. It is imperative that
nations show unprecedented interest and courage to deal with these challenges.
Nonetheless, it
appears to be a wishful thinking at the moment to contemplate upon such an
eventuality. India
thus has to take extra measures and careful planning to meet this challenge in
its neighbourhood. The Indian defence planning, force structure and aspects of
military doctrine all need to be geared towards ensuring energy security of the
country. ---INFA
(Copyright,
India News and Feature Alliance)
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