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Energy Deficit:Emerging Threat to Security, by Dr. Chintamani Mahapatra,28 March 2006 Print E-mail

ROUND THE WORLD

New Delhi, 28 March 2006

Energy Deficit

Emerging Threat to Security

By Dr. Chintamani Mahapatra

School of International Studies, JNU

Scarcity always breeds insecurity. Nothing is more scarce today than energy. As new economic power houses like India and China would demand more energy in years to come, problems are bound to arise.

Nothing is a greater threat to India in coming years than an assured available source of energy to fuel the now galloping Indian economic growth. For years now Indian strategic analysts were predicting about a possible scramble for energy resources by fast developing economies as the major fountain of international insecurity. Now the days of that insecurity appear to be approaching fast.

Along with China, Indian demand for energy to fuel economic growth will most likely destabilize the global energy market and no country, including the developed countries of America and Europe can remain unaffected. The hurried manner in which the Bush Administration concluded a civilian nuclear deal with it to enable India to diversify its sources of energy can be easily understood in the light of the energy question. There is a fear that China and India might compete for energy on the international stage and that itself is a potential area of dangerous conflict.

Both India and China are busy searching for newer sources of oil, gas and other sources of energy in the traditional region of hydrocarbon resources, such as the Middle East and in Africa and Latin America and aggressively making deals.

In order to prevent such conflicts from emerging, many countries, including the US, Saudi Arabia and India and China are trying very hard to develop cooperative models of energy cooperation. Before Saudi King came to India in January this year and struck energy deals, he had already done so in China as well. The United States has recently signed an agreement with India for civilian nuclear cooperation and the Bush Administration is striving hard to sell this agreement to the US Congress and the Nuclear Suppliers’ Group. But the US had a similar agreement much earlier with China and, in fact, it gave a green signal to Westing House Company to sell civilian reactors to China in December 2005.

Significantly, India too took the initiative in convening in New Delhi a round table in January 2005 and November 2005 of principal energy suppliers (Saudi Arabia, UAE, Kuwait, Iran, Qatar, Oman) with principal Asian  (India, China, Japan, Korea) to create a cooperative relationship. This step was aimed at preventing a sense of rivalry and creation of an Asian version of the International Energy Association. The ultimate goal of Indian approach seems to be establishment of an Asian Oil and Gas Community.

Simultaneously, the Government of India has systematically been engaged in striking energy deals with a host of countries in all directions. The proposed gas pipeline deal with Iran, attempts to acquire gas from Myanmar and Bangladesh in the east, the recently-concluded agreement with Mauritius to tap its sources of energy, exploration of sources of energy in Africa and Latin America are but a few examples of the intense Indian effort.

India’s Petroleum Minister recently wrote in an article that India is located at the crossroads of energy resources and that “to our east lie Bangladesh and Myanmar, both with high potential in natural gas. The central task of our oil diplomacy is going to be that of bringing Myanmar gas through the Northeast, and possibly through Bangladesh, into India. Besides feeding east and north-east India from Myanmar, north India from Central Asia and west India from Iran, we also need a series of LNG terminals along both the east and west coasts of peninsular India to access gas as LNG from points as disparate as Qatar, Australia and Sakhalin.”

Our traditional ties with Russia, the emerging relationship with the United States, the proposal to enhance all-round relationship with the members of the Gulf Cooperation Council are all aimed at securing the sources of energy. India has simultaneously not ignored the domestic sources of generating energy, both nuclear and fossil fuels and hydro power. However, India’s rising dependence on foreign sources of energy is a foregone conclusion. The emerging role of India as a global political and economic player is coinciding with increasing dependence of India on others for energy.

Consequently, India has to prepare itself both militarily and diplomatically for protecting its foreign sources of energy for uninterrupted supply. Energy should drive India’s foreign policy and diplomatic engagements in years to come. A healthy relationship with the neighbours thus becomes a pre-requisite for India’s unhindered economic growth.

It is dire lesson that as India grows in power, it simultaneously becomes more and more vulnerable. It is unlikely that nation-states would threaten India’s energy security in the future. In fact, even a country like Pakistan is prepared to establish cooperative ties in maintaining energy security. It is a win-win situation. When Bangladesh refused to cooperate, India approached Myanmar for an alternative route for its gas supply to India. Loser was Bangladesh.

The win-win situation for every country big and small thus has the potential to give a new direction to international politics and economics. Energy cooperation will mean co-prosperity and lack of cooperation will mean difficulty and stunted growth of economy for all. The opportunity cost of non-cooperation will high enough in years to come to induce energy suppliers and consumers for mutual cooperation.

But the real threat will come from the non-state actors, including the international crime syndicates, insurgents and sub-national groups in revolt and above all terrorist organizations. It is imperative that nations show unprecedented interest and courage to deal with these challenges.

Nonetheless, it appears to be a wishful thinking at the moment to contemplate upon such an eventuality. India thus has to take extra measures and careful planning to meet this challenge in its neighbourhood. The Indian defence planning, force structure and aspects of military doctrine all need to be geared towards ensuring energy security of the country. ---INFA

(Copyright, India News and Feature Alliance)

 


 

 

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