REWIND
New Delhi, 18 April 2024
POLL,
CONGRESS-I & OPPOSITION UNITY
By Inder
Jit
(Released
on 13 June 1989)
The poll battle is hotting up. Everything is being said
or done with an eye on winning supporters and influencing people. Nothing is
being left to chance. The stakes are once again high, indeed very high. The
battle is not just a quest for continuing in power for the Congress-I leaders.
Even physical survival is involved in a tragic situation in which Punjab still
awaits a solution and continues to bleed and suffer. What the outcome will be
at the time of the poll in October at the earliest or in the first week of
January at the latest --- lies in the lap of the Gods. Much will depend on the
popular mood or the hawa on the eve of the election. Anything could
happen between now and then in a country where the public easily goes euphoric
and its opinion and mood are known to swing from one extreme to another. We
have made heroes of ordinary mortals and raised them to glorious heights one
day and denounced and dumped them the next day.
The Congress-I hopes to "sweep the poll and win an
overwhelming majority", according to an assessment Mr H.K.L. Bhagat gave
me at the Pioneer's 125th year celebration at the Vigyan Bhawan on
Wednesday last. "Don't give me what is fit only for a bhashan,"
I said. He responded: "I am serious. Our people know what is good for them
and the country." The Opposition, for its part, is no less optimistic, no
matter what you and I think and feel in the metropolitan or other urban centres
-- or in our ivory towers. Said Mr Atal Behari Vajpayee: "As things stand
at present, the Opposition parties should get an overwhelming majority. I give
the Congress-I a maximum of 200 seats out of a total of 544 seats." This
assessment, as Mr Vajpayee clarified, "is based on the expectation that
the Opposition parties will ultimately be able to fight the Congress-I on a
one-to-one basis. All of us are keen to avoid splitting of the anti-Congress-I
vote this time."
The Congress-I assessment is based mainly on the
failure of the Opposition thus far to project itself as a credible alternative.
In sharp contrast, the Congress-I sees itself acknowledged once again as
India's best bet for stability and unity. The Janata Government in Karnataka
and its impressive record posed a problem. But this has since been resolved ---
rightly or wrongly. In addition, the party hopes to capitalize in a big way on
Mr Rajiv Gandhi's new deal on Panchayati Raj. Not a little store is also laid
by the Rs 2,500-crore Jawahar Rozgar Yojana, which is expected to swell the
ranks of its supporters. Asserted a Congress-I leader: "Our voters go by
broad impressions. Remember, Indira Gandhi won her battle against the old guard
by declaring: ‘They say Indira hatao. I say garibi hatao’.
Rajivji has now given a new slogan: 'Power to the people’. The masses are
happy, who is bothered at the grassroots about constitutional niceties and the
autonomy of the States?"
The Opposition expects to win mainly on the basis of
what it describes as the Rajiv Government's present image of being
"corrupt and rotten", arguing: "The Opposition is seldom voted
to power. Only the Government is voted out!" Mr V.P. Singh, for instance,
is not unduly worried that the Bofors and the Submarine scandals no longer
dominate the proceedings of Parliament or the front pages of newspapers. He
told me not long ago: "The people are now well aware of the truth. The chowkidar
has turned into a chor." At any rate, the Opposition is not without
more ammunition. This is expected to be used at the right moment. They also
hope to cash in on what they describe as the failure of the Government's
economic policies, as reflected in two things which concern the masses most:
unemployment and prices. The Jawahar Rozgar Yojana, they feel, will only
highlight the Government's basic failure --- and "its attempts to fool the
people through stunts."
All out efforts are, therefore, under way on both sides
to improve the image of their top leaders and to sully those of the opponents. Mr.
Rajiv Gandhi turned up in the Lok Sabha to announce personally the Jawahar
Rozgar Yojana and also to introduce the historic Panchayati Raj Bill, even as
he was greatly conspicuous by his absence time and again when the House was
plunged into disorder. (As the Leader of the House, Mr Gandhi is required to
ensure that Parliament functions smoothly.) Everything possible is being done
to damn the Janata Dal leader, Mr V.P. Singh. In the bargain, all norms and
ethics have been cast to the winds. Even a newspaper article by Mr Madhu
Limaye, who himself never made it to the big league as a controversial
socialist, was quoted at length by Doordarshan to denigrate both Mr V.P. Singh
and the Janata Dal. Obliging newspapers have also been roped in to denounce Mr
Singh and put across the official pro-Rajiv line.
On the other hand, Mr V.P. Singh has been persuaded by
his close aides and supporters to give greater attention to his popular image
and to be careful about what he says. (Remember, following his triumph in the
Allahabad by-election, Mr Singh openly stated that he would be "a disaster
as Prime Minister." This, as he told me, was intended to stop people from
talking of him as Prime Minister. But the statement is now being quoted against
him!) Mr Singh has, therefore, asserted himself on the choice of the Janata Dal
Chief in Bihar. He was far from happy at having appointed Mr Raghunath Jha at
the pressing instance of Mr Chandra Shekhar and Mr Devi Lal. Now, he has
removed Mr Jha and appointed Mr Ram Sundar Das, who has a much better image. In
the process, he has shown that he can also be tough and decisive. Those who
attended the Janata Dal's recent meet in Bangalore also speak highly of his
conduct of the conclave.
Simultaneously, the Janata Dal is also working
patiently to ensure the position unity at the polls and a one-to-one contest
against the Congress-I, especially in the Hindi heartland which accounts for
221 seats. This is sought to be done through the National Front and through
seat adjustments with the BJP, notwithstanding CPM Opposition. The CPM
maintains that any adjustment with the BJP would drive the Muslims, who
constitute 16 per cent of the voters, into the arms of the Congress-I. But the
Janata Dal disagrees and asserts that adjustments are tactical and wholly
distinct from an alliance. The Janata Dal and the BJP are also clear that
adjustments are a must if the Congress-I is to be humbled. Consequently, Mr
Vajpayee and Mr Devi Lal have not only met to hammer out adjustments, but their
efforts hold out promise of unexpected success, proving the well-known adage:
if there is a will there is a way.
The Congress-I, for its part, is trying its best
overtly and covertly to prevent the Opposition from coming together. Quiet
moves have been on to persuade the CPM to stay out of the National Front. At
the same time, the Left has also been attacked publicly by Mr Rajiv Gandhi for
continuing in a front in which its principal member, the Janata Dal, is
"in alliance" with the "communal BJP". The CPM would, no
doubt, be happier if the Janata Dal agreed not to seek adjustments with the
BJP. But, to quote Mr Harkishan Singh Surjeet, "the CPM is clear that the
Rajiv Gandhi Government today stands isolated from the common man and the
masses and must be given a crushing defeat." Further, the CPM has hardly
any following of its own in the Hindi heartland. It is, therefore, not terribly
keen on making an issue of the Janata Dal-BJP talks and walking out of the
National Front, something which would help only the ruling Congress-I.
One issue remains. What does the proverbial common man
think and feel? Some quiet soundings over the past few weeks have yielded
interesting results. The weaker sections of the community are exercised most of
all over the continuous price rise, which has made their "lives miserable."
(They assert: "What do our Ministers know of the price of atta, daal
and other basic needs.") Corruption scandals relating to Bofors guns and
HDW submarines undoubtedly bother them. But what has angered them most is the
hard fact that corruption now afflicts all levels of administration down to the
panchayat. Nothing moves even at the grass-roots without bribery. "Both
have made the weaker sections anti-Rajiv Government," to quote more than
one person. But they have a problem. They do not yet see a credible alternative
and feel disgusted by the infighting (real or created) in the Janata Dal. Both
the Congress-I and the Opposition would do well to pause --- and take note.---INFA
(Copyright, India
News and Feature Alliance)
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