Political Diary

New Delhi, 2 April 2024

Loktantra Bachao’

ALL TOGETHER, BUT U ….?

By Poonam I Kaushish 

Unity in disunity or disunity in unity? Flummoxed? Certainly, as INDIA bloc rallied together in a Loktantra Bachao show of strength in Delhi Sunday to play footsie, build an idealogical counter and reconcile competing ambitions with a single aim: Oust BJP in 2024. 39 Modi’s NDA vs 27 INDIA coalition dynamics have vaulted to top agenda 2024 with the winner taking all. 

The rally saw Congress’s mother-son Sonia-Rahul, Kharge, NCP’s Pawar, SP’s Akhilesh, RJD’s Tejashwi, PDP-NC’s Mufti-Abdullah etc vociferously accusing BJP of murdering Constitutional democracy and Modi’s autocratic rule, but it is a testing time for them, even as they projected bonhomie and appeared to have found common cause.

Undoubtedly, they have been delivered a setback by AAP leader and Delhi Chief Minister Kejriwal and his JMM counterpart in Jharkhand Soren’s arrest, but also an opportunity --- to energise INDIA bloc and give it a larger frame to take to people.  The big question: Can and will  they influence the political narrative ahead of  elections, even as courts settle merits of both detentions as numerous cases have been filed against Opposition leaders by ED and CBI.

Two, can INDIA convince voters of BJP weaponising investigative agencies along-with Income Tax freezing Congress’s account and electoral bond revelations into this narrative? Do they have common issues which will bind them, or are they an inchoate and stumbling set united only by their antipathy to BJP but working at cross purposes to protect individual turfs? Already TMC Mamata has accused Congress-CPM of helping BJP and making clear there is no alliance in West Bengal.  

Besides, the groupings seat-sharing arrangements have been sub-optimal, worse, at ground level there is no coordination on the campaign itself: messaging and leaders’ campaigning together in States where they are allies? They have still to frame an agenda of alternative governance and politics.

Three, how does the imperative of due process play out amid concerns of the poll process being vitiated with ED knocking on only Opposition doors, alongside foes-turned-allies being exonerated by ED-CBI. NCP’s Praful Patel a case in point in the Air India leasing scam. Can BJP convince the electorate that ED’s action is not political vendetta as Opposition tom-toms?

Further, tension is inherent to INDIA bloc as regional Parties have historically been anti-Congress outfits. In Telangana and Karnataka the Grand Dame has been successful against regional groups. In contrast, in Tamil Nadu and Bihar it has been forced to play second fiddle despite protests from State leaders. Ditto in Maharashtra where both NCP and Shiv Sena (U) though weakened by splits are unlikely to let Congress dictate terms in seat-sharing.

In Bihar disappointment, anger and suspicion is rife amongst local leadership as it believes it has been short-changed.  In UP Samajwadi drove a hard bargain and ensured its interests prevailed vis-à-vis seat distribution. Congress realizes it needs a leg-up from allies to clock a decent tally in Parliament and squabbles with INDIA, which is yet to discuss a common minimum programme or joint campaigns, is poor optics.

Moreover, the grouping is plagued with contradictions as it has sharply defined regional areas and consequently many more turf wars. For regional Parties Congress is a useful ally in polls, but they are careful not to let it revive and become a behemoth again. An issue which it needs to resolve as it struggles to offer a viable alternative to BJP.

Importantly, the moot point is: Even if INDIA bloc gets their voters out, splits anti-BJP votes to minimum and Kejriwal’s arrest evokes sympathy, can it take on its bête noir? Modi’s BJP is far better organized, way ahead in poll prep and led by a determined politician. Whether ED, CBI and IT action passes the smell test is debatable, but whether these issues have as much voter traction and translate into votes is the query they need to ask.

Questionably how will INDIA translate at the ground level as individual candidates are going to contest only on their Party name and symbol, and INDIA as an acronym would have no place there. The Constitution does not recognize Parties and Representation of the People Act also does not identify electoral alliances, pre-poll or post-poll. 

Also, a coalition cannot just be woven around an anti-Modi theme. It needs a vibrant script. Even as it underlines ‘inclusive’ in its name, BJP has usurped it by succeeding in drawing a parallel with politics of appeasement. It will have to find the language and repertoire that can match BJP’s dexterity, multi-vocality, poll fighting mean machine and resources with which it shores up its communication dominance and perceived imagery.

Modi has already thrown down the gauntlet by refreshing Hindutva, projecting and redefining nationalism and the country’s self respect. Who will take up cudgels against BJP beyond rally slogans?  

Clearly, in this minefield of contradictions where strategies are crafted with electoral dividends in mind forging a path ahead for the Opposition will require foresight, nimbleness and flexibility. So far it has taken baby steps, if they want to play the game right INDIA will have to start lengthening their stride. Remember, a weak Opposition by any name will remain a weak Opposition. 

Think. In terms of seats NDA (323) is far ahead of INDIA (134) but vote shares: NDA’s 42%  to INDIA’s 35% make them competitive. Further, BJP might feel confident of having majority States under its belt with its partners but it should remember vote shares often don’t transfer perfectly. Thus, seat-sharing arrangements will be key. 

Further, in NDA 22 of 39 Parties have zero seats in Parliament but convey an important signal to their respective social groups. In UP BJP is dominant but has Apna Dal and Nishad Party, not due to their strength but message to non-dominant backward communities.  Modi dubs it “a beautiful rainbow where no Party is big or small,” signaling a tactical shift and accommodative NDA? Centralization within the Party has resulted in diminishing of its State leadership that has returned to haunt. 

Certainly, BJP which faces mounting discomforts of two terms incumbency needs fresh thinking and ideas. The rout in Karnataka and its failure to make inroads in 5 Southern States which send 130 MPs have made it incumbent to begin its scorecard therein. 

Surely, how the narratives pan out in coming days will have bearing on the poll outcome. To voters, 27 or 39, numbers don't matter. He’s aware BJP is numero uno with Congress a very distant second. It remains to be seen if INDIA can bury internal differences and maintain a semblance of unity and side-step traps like Rahul’s apocalyptic framing of “match fixing” and if BJP wins and changes the Constitution “poore desh main aag lagne jaa rahi hai.”

In the ultimate, at stake is whether INDIA bloc believes it will be provided a level-playing field and whether elections will be free, fair or foul as it whines BJP has vitiated the atmosphere by oiling many compliant institutions.   

As democratic governance becomes more complex, NDA and INDIA beyond seat-sharing and ego massaging have to strike the right balance between being popular and taking care of popular interest with a long term vision.  Remember, the business of shaping Bharat is not a matter of arithmetic but of politics. Who will come up trumps? ----- INFA 

(Copyright India News & Feature Alliance)