REWIND
New Delhi, 21
March 2024
Claims
and Poll Prospects
By Inder Jit
(Released on 25
September 1979)
Predictably if prematurely, the poll guessing game is
on again. Anyone who even looks like having some clue about the popular mood
and the possible outcome of the forthcoming general election is in demand. So
also are the astrologers who are better placed than most others they have at
least Bhrigu Samhita and the stars to go by not only those in seats of authority
and their cohorts, but hundreds of others all over the country are busy getting
them to peer into the future. Those anxious to retain power of aspiring to
membership of Parliament want help to determine their prospects and tactics. Celestial
guidance is also sought by scores of captains of industry and others to decide
on the political horses they should profitably back and the best way in which
they should hedge their bets. Seasoned politicians and observers alone prefer
not to commit themselves and speak in parables or in general terms. Candidly, a
discussion in terms of numbers is unduly early. The situation is still largely fluid
notwithstanding loud, rival blasts.
Anything can happen between now and the New Year; the
poll, according to latest indications, is still likely to be held on or about
December 30. This will depend upon a combination of several factors: the
prevailing circumstances at the time and the ability of the rival parties
effectively to pose vital issues at stake before the people and to shake them
out of their tragic indifference to their own long-term interest and that of
their children. The situation has already changed greatly since August 22 when
the President, Mr Sanjiva Reddy, dissolved the Lok Sabha unexpectedly. The
Janata Party and its leaders found themselves down in the dumps that day.
Within 48 hours, however, they were smiling again when Mr Morarji Desai and
others addressed a “protest meeting” at the Ramlila grounds. Even the most
optimistic among the Janata leaders were taken by surprise. Over a lakh of
persons turned up at short notice in sharp contrast to the attendance at two
earlier meetings, one convened by Janata (S) and the other by Congress (I).
Happily for the Janata leaders, their party prospects
appear to have improved over the past month. On August 26, a top Janata leader
told me: “Bombay’s welcome to Morarjibhai has been even better than the turnout
in New Delhi. We should be able to get as many seats as we held in the
dissolved Lok Sabha: about 200.” On Thursday, September 20, Mr Chandra Shekhar
told me: “We will win at least 225 seats. We may well bag 300 if the present
trend continues.” The Janata chief feels particularly confident on three
grounds. First, popular response. “The crowds everywhere”, he says, “are twice
those of 1977 and as enthusiastic.” Second, the people’s anger against the
Janata is now turning against Janata (S). Few are willing to buy Mr Charan
Singh’s “alibis” for the spurt in prices. Third, the people’s continuing
abhorrence of authoritarianism. Asserts Mr Chandra Shekhar: “The 1977 vote was
not negative. Our people voted positively for freedom and democracy.”
If Mr Chandra Shekhar is confident, Mrs Indira Gandhi,
Mr Charan Singh and their respective confidants are no less optimistic. A
senior Congress (I) leader told me: “Make no mistake, we are winning. Mrs
Gandhi alone can give the country a strong and stable government. Our rock
bottom is 240 seats. But we are hoping to win 350 seats.” He then explained: “We
drew a virtual blank in the north in 1977. This time we expect to win here at
least a hundred seats, giving us a minimum of 250 seats all over the country.”
(Mrs Gandhi won 150 seats in 1977.) Top Janata (S) leaders dismiss the Janata
and Congress (I) claims as “wishful thinking” and maintain: “Our Alliance alone
will triumph. We will get at least 250 seats and may even go up to 325 seats.
Each of our allies is going to concentrate in its respective stronghold. No, we
shall not fritter away our energies. Chaudhury Sahib will concentrate in the
north, Mr Urs and MGR in the south, Mr Chavan and Mr Pawar in the west and the
CPM in the east.”
All these are essentially claims and counter-claims. Much will eventually depend upon certain vital factors and
indicators -- the nature of the contests, straight, or multi-corner, and the
attitude of the Harijans and the minorities who have played a crucial role in
the poll outcome over the past three decades and more. The caste Hindus and
the backward classes have, no doubt, constituted a majority among the
electorate all along. But they have invariably reduced themselves to the
position of a hopeless minority (and to
nonce) by the unthinking manner in which they have exercised their
franchise. Experience has shown that of every hundred Muslim voters, for
instance, eighty or so make it a point to poll. What is more, all of them have
generally voted for one common candidate. In sharp contrast, barely forty out
of a hundred caste Hindus have normally cared to vote and, what is equally
significant, they have invariably voted for ten or more candidates, if not for
as many!
Not many remember certain basic features of India’s
electoral landscape. Until the 1977 poll, the Congress virtually enjoyed the
full or “captive” support of the Harijans and the minorities. This enabled the
party to win electoral battles again and again. Some veteran observers place
this support at about 25 per cent of the votes polled. The Congress thus
required only a fraction of the remaining vote to win huge majorities; in 1971,
it required merely an additional 18 per cent of the caste Hindu votes to win a
massive majority of 352 of the 524 seats in the Lok Sabha on a minority mandate
of 43 per cent --- 25 per cent plus 18 per cent. But the situation underwent a
radical change in 1977, as a result of the Emergency and its many authoritarian
excesses. The Muslims largely decided to oppose Mrs Gandhi and a sizable chunk
of the Harijan vote also went against the Congress. The net result? The
Congress Party got knocked for a six in the north and won seats only in the
south.
Mrs Gandhi is well aware of the powerful support her
party has received from the Harijans and the minorities. Indeed, it was this
support as symbolised by Mr Jagjivan Ram and Mr Fakhruddin Ali Ahmed which
enabled her to win her grim battle against the Syndicate in 1969 as also the
poll of 1971. (Her first salvo against the Syndicate at the time of the great
split, it may be recalled, was the joint letter Jagjivan Ram and Mr. Ahmed wrote
to the then Congress President, Mr Nijalingappa, accusing him of “communalism”
and of joining hands with the Jana Sangh!) Mrs Gandhi desperately tried to
prevent any erosion in the support of the Harijans and the minorities in 1977.
She clarified that Government action in regard to Harijans welfare had nothing
to do with Mr Jagjivan Ram personally. She also repeatedly projected the Janata
as a party dominated by Jana Sangh and the RSS. But all these efforts proved of
little avail.
Much of what has been happening over the past few weeks
is largely a part of the self-same exercise by the leading political parties:
wooing the Muslim and Harijan voters by all means fair or soul and ensuring for
themselves “some minimum committed support.” The Janata Party’s decision to go to
the poll battle under the leadership of Mr Jagjivan Ram and to hold out to the
Harijan voters the promise of giving them India’s first Harijan Prime Minister
has created a major problem for both the Congress(I) end the Janata(S). More
and more Harijans now appear inclined tο swing their support in favour of the
Janata Party much to the chagrin of Mrs Gandhi. Efforts are consequently on to
achieve one of two things: either get Babuji, as Mr Jagjivan Ram is popularly
known, to somehow cross over to their side or to erode his credibility vis a
vis the Harijan masses. Witness the occasional rumour that Babuji is about to
join hands with Mrs Gandhi.
Ultimately, one
thing alone is clear. There is little scope for going by the old and familiar indicators
or by generalisations. The Muslims and the Harijans might have voted en bloc in
the past. But neither can be taken for granted any more. Both communities today
increasingly understand their abiding interest and are not going to be taken in
by gimmickry. Likewise, the caste Hindus splintered
their votes all these years. But they may not necessarily do so this time.
(Lately, more and more people have been heard to say: “Is it a crime to be a
Hindu?”) Again, Mrs Gandhi may appear to be riding a new wave of popularity.
But there are still three months to go. The time for hard decisions is yet to
come. --INFA.
(Copyright, India
News & Feature Alliance)
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