Open Forum

New Delhi, 29 February 2024

Electoral Calculations

ALL ABOUT MODI MAGIC?

By Dhurjati Mukherjee 

The battle for Lok Sabha elections 2024 is turning out both intriguing and exciting on the political landscape of the country. The popularity of Prime Minister Narendra Modi is reflected in his claim that he would return to office in May with a landslide victory, with his party, BJP, winning more than 370 seats on its own and the NDA crossing the 400 mark! The over-confidence came during the reply to President’s address, but at this point of time when INDIA bloc is making every effort to work out seat-sharing formulas, the figure appears inflated. The score of 370, if at all the BJP reaches this figure, will be the highest since 1984 when Congress rode the sympathy wave following Indira Gandhi’s assassination. 

Notably, the BJP is going all out to emerge victorious with a big margin. A move which is bolstered with the shift of Nitish Kumar back to the NDA along with the RLD after Charan Singh was honoured with the Bharat Ratna and former Chief Minister Ashok Chavan leaving the Congress in Maharashtra and may well join the BJP. Clearly, the efforts to muster more support won’t stop here, as in Delhi, the AAP flogs the claim that BJP is offering big sums of money to wean away its MLAs.    

Undeniably, following the overwhelming response to the Ram temple consecration and other such temples expected to follow suit in Kashi and Mathura, Modi’s popularity has risen, and the NDA is eyeing regional parties for support. Political analysts believe that the religious card is over-shadowing the economic rights of the marginalised and backward sections, including their justified demand for a dignified existence. 

At same time, it’s evident that BJP is seeking to win back its old allies. The Bihar effect is being felt in other places as in Punjab and West Bengal, where the ruling AAP and TMC have decided to go it alone respectively. Much depends on what happens in Maharashtra and whether the seat-sharing between the Shiv Sena (Uddhav Thackeray group), Congress and NCP is worked out well amongst all three. Latest reports indicate that Arvind Kejriwal has decided that AAP will contest all 90 Assembly seats alone in Haryana but shall continue to be part of INDIA bloc in the battle for Lok Sabha.   

Alliances in the Opposition bloc are still being worked out even if there’s no alliance among AAP and Congress in Punjab as also between TMC and Congress in West Bengal. In Uttar Pradesh, the Samajwadi Party and Congress have reached an agreement with the latter contesting 17 of the 70 seats. Moreover, while in Delhi, AAP and Congress will be jointly fighting in four and three seats respectively, the situation in Haryana is quite complex. 

Recall in August 2023, the India Today-C’Voter survey predicted the vote share gap between the NDA and INDIA coalition had narrowed down to just two per cent. The momentum has been somewhat lost and in its latest February survey, the lead has increased to six per cent and the NDA seems headed for a clear majority. Modi has claimed Congress won’t get even 50 seats!   

While many would say it’s an absurd claim, the fact that Congress President Mallikarjun Kharge has hardly any following in the northern and eastern states may not be totally wrong. As it appears the Congress is relying heavily on Rahul Gandhi and his Bharat Jodo Nyaya Yatra, which is reportedly drawing large crowds. Plus, grass-root leaders of the party in Rajasthan, Jharkhand and Madhya Pradesh are expected to help the grand old party in its calculations. But as things stand today, it would be extremely impossible for the Congress to get a sizeable number of seats to make a claim to form the next government.   

The power needed for a strong working alliance is somewhat missing in the INDIA bloc. One reason being the Congress’ incapability and the results in got in the recent Assembly elections. Though Rahul has been highlighting the right social and economic issues that affect the impoverished and backward sections, the neglect of OBCs, the dalits and tribals, the induction of religion into politics and the aggressiveness of the Hindutva brigade appear to be influencing the semi-literate masses of the northern states, where the BJP is now dominating.   

It would be pertinent to refer to a book titled Modi’s India: Hindu Nationalism & The Rise of Ethnic Democracy by Christopher Jaffrelot published in 2022 which dealt with Modi’s spectacular popularity in spite that his was a pro-rich government, ideologically opposed to policies of redistribution, those that worked towards a welfare State. Moreover, the violent intimidation of minorities coupled with Modi’s authoritarianism choked democracies by elected governments themselves beginning with Parliament and extending to the judiciary, the media, the Election Commission, the CBI, the Lokpal etc. 

Perhaps, the pursuance of religion and aggressive Hinduism has tilted the balance in favour of the ruling dispensation. It is indeed distressing that the country navigated from a flawed yet hopeful experiment in building democracy with equal citizenship of people of every faith to a place where it is increasingly dangerous to be a minority, dissenter or even to report the truth as dissent and protest are being thwarted, not just by the Centre but in the states as well, West Bengal being a glaring example.   

In the present situation, even though the Modi government has been pro-rich and favouring this section along with the middle class, the higher castes, the poor and the lower castes appear to be mesmerised with Modi’s religious overtures. He has portrayed himself as a saintly person, possibly the first of its kind to occupy the chair of the prime minister. The skills of Modi, including his articulation and gestures, seem to have had a great impact on the masses. 

It is worth mentioning that Modi’s image has been bolstered in a big way while it’s not so in the case of Rahul. Modi’s skills of mesmerising the masses with talks of achievements that possibly lack justification has caught on well with people from northern, central and western India, who don’t have the real power to analyse. On the other hand, Rahul has been focussing on basic social and economic issues that affect the common man. His yatra, no doubt, may have an effect, but doesn’t match either BJP’s money power or its surreptitious methods of harassing Opposition leaders by unleashing the ED or IT agencies after them. 

In this big ensuing electoral battle, it remains to be seen whether Modi’s experiment of a sharper thrust on religion, will get him the massive majority that he claims to be heading towards and drastically change politics in the country.  ---INFA 

(Copyright, India News & Feature Alliance)