ROUND THE WORLD
New
Delhi, 23 January 2006
Difficult Days
Ahead
INDO-US NUCLEAR
COOPERATION
By Dr. Chintamani
Mahapatra
School of International Studies, JNU
The official excitement expressed in July last by both the
Indian and American officials after an understanding on civilian cooperation
arrived at between the Indian Prime Minister and the American President has
been replaced by more caution after the recent visit of the US Under Secretary
of State, Nicholas Burns to Delhi.
The conviction of Indian and American officials reflected
after the first meeting on this issue in October last, that the new civilian
nuclear deal would be ready for implementation by the time President George
Bush makes an official trip to India
no longer remains after the latest meeting between Burns and Foreign Secretary
Shyam Saran. India now feels
that more dialogue with greater details is necessary and the US officials doubt if an agreement for
implementation would be ready before Bush’s visit to India.
However, both New Delhi and Washington have not
changed their views on the importance of this agreement for strengthening
international non-proliferation efforts, as well as for meeting the energy
requirements of a fast-growing Indian economy. Significantly, neither the US nor India is comfortable with sharing
the content and nature of the official dialogue with their respective people.
The dialogue between the officials of the two countries is shrouded with
substantial secrecy.
Had it been pure economics or just a matter of energy
supply, perhaps open diplomacy would have been adopted. If the Indian Prime
Minister considered it important to strike a nuclear deal with the US President
without first taking the Indian people into confidence or even consulting with
the coalition partners of the UPA Government, one can safely assume that the
matter involves issues of national security and thus open debate and discussion
are not encouraged.
Democracies and open societies with vibrant media,
nonetheless, cannot remain quiet and refrain from debating the issue or
demanding transparency. Indians are so fond of debates that every bit of
national security affairs becomes a matter of public information and discussion
– the NPT, CTBT, FMCT or just name it. The aftermath of July 18 agreement
between the US and India too saw a
healthy debate on the issue in our country.
Several analysts expressed their fear that civilian nuclear
cooperation with the US
might force India
to compromise its national security. They did not believe that it would be
possible to separate the civilian nuclear facilities from the ones necessary
for the country’s military requirements. The previous NDA Government circulated
a draft nuclear doctrine that spelled out an ambitious nuclear weapons
capability on the sea, land and air. Not many in India challenged such an ambition.
How could the Government now achieve that goal after separating the nuclear
facilities and opening up a large number of them to international inspection?
Others raised apprehension that India’s
nuclear weapon capability would be exposed to outsiders after the Indo-US deal
was implemented.
The UPA Government initially gave an impression that the US would accord the same status to India as other
nuclear weapon powers have on matters of international inspection. Probably
every one, including the Indian Government, was shocked when it was revealed
that it was not so. Earlier, the general feeling was that the understanding
reached between the Prime Minister and American President was enough for the
White House to approach the US Congress to bring about necessary legislation
for enabling supply of civilian nuclear technology to India. Soon
another eye opener incident occurred when Indians came to know that New Delhi would have to take certain concrete steps
demanded by Washington
before the US Congress would act upon the issue.
The US
expectation was, however, not limited to what India would do to its nuclear
programmes and facilities at home. Washington
also desired India
to prove and demonstrate its non-proliferation credentials on the foreign
policy front. The real challenge came when the Iranian nuclear issue was raised
in the International Atomic Energy Agency or IAEA. India
had to vote on the side of the US
in the process risking the proposed gas pipeline project with Iran.
Subsequently, as Tehran took
up the issue with New Delhi and expected a
change of behaviour next time, Washington
expressed its pleasure over Indian voting and desired that New Delhi would continue to do so in the
future. The Bush Administration pointed out that such foreign policy behaviour
was necessary to enable it to convince the members of the Nuclear Suppliers’
Group (NSG) the need for co-opting India into the non-proliferation
regime.
All these are clear indications that the new relationship
with the United States
will involve rethinking of Indian foreign policy postures and stances on
certain issues now and even in the future. It is important that Indian foreign policy
establishment and international affairs analysts begin serious study and
analysis on this subject. A vigorous foreign policy debate is called for to
protect Indian foreign policy interests.
It is also required that the national security team, both in
the Government and the policy analysis community, discuss the security
ramifications of the proposed Indo-US civilian nuclear cooperation. After India separates the civilian nuclear facilities
from the military ones and gives such a list to the US, interested members of
the international community will quickly know about India’s nuclear weapons facilities.
Even if we discount the possibility of any nuclear exchange in the region, even
theoretically the real and potential adversaries of India
would be able to target India’s
facilities. Such an eventuality has to be seriously considered before we go
forward with the required nuclear facilities separation.
There is no doubt that the country’s improved relation with
the US
is significant and desirable. But the cost and benefit analysis of a nuclear
deal, such as the proposed one, is essential to protect and enhance the
country’s national interests and security. While the Government should maintain
certain amount of secrecy for national security reasons, some amount of
transparency too is necessary to evolve a healthy police approach.
(Copyright,
India News and Feature Alliance)
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