Round The World

New Delhi, 9 February 2024

Domestic Election

IMPACT ON FOREIGN POLICY

By Prof. (Dr.) D.K. Giri

(Secretary General, Assn for Democratic Socialism) 

In developing countries, elections at home do not usually have serious foreign policy issues. Only the big countries having international market and influence make foreign policy an election issue at home. In the age of globalisation as well as interdependence between countries, the trend may be changing. Let us examine this assumption. 

Interestingly, 64 countries in the world including seven most populous countries are going to elections in 2024. No wonder, this year is being called ‘world election year’. What would be the impact of these elections on their respective foreign policies and on world politics at large? Remember that a few countries that deeply matter to India have just had their elections and are going to have another round. 

Bhutan had its elections last year and the incumbent Prime Minister got re-elected and was visiting India at the time of writing, 7^th of February. Bangladesh had Parliament elections and Sheikh Hasina got re-elected. Her Foreign Minister is likely to come to Indian soon. Taiwan had the general elections and the previous government got re-elected. The Government of India congratulated the winners in Bhutan and Bangladesh. Since India does not recognise Taiwan, New Delhi had a muted response to their elections. The Foreign Ministry spokesman noted the developments in Taiwan while acknowledging the growing people-to-people relations and the cultural and business exchanges between the two countries. 

Maldives also had its presidential election and tension with India has begun since as a pro-China candidate became the President. President Muizzu, in line with his election promise, has asked India to withdraw its military presence from his country. Indians, if not the government, have reacted strongly to cheap jibes made at Prime Minister Narendra Modi by two of Maldivian ministers. The two ministers making such gratuitous remarks have been suspended. 

Also, countries where elections are going to be held this year matter to India in their foreign policies. To start with, Pakistan went to the polls on 8^th of February. Imran Khan has been put in jail and is barred from contesting. Nawaz Sharif is likely to win. New Delhi may hope for a thaw in India-Pakistan tensions and revival of bilateralism. Modi had visited Pakistan during Sharif’s tenure and the latter was in New Delhi at the former’s swearing-in ceremony of in 2014. 

Maldives, which had the presidential election, goes to polls on 17^th of March for Majlis, its Parliament. New Delhi would hope that Majlis elections will check the ruling coalition’s power by boosting the former PPM Party. Muizzu has been taking an anti-India stance, more so, after his visit to Beijing. He has negotiated with India the withdrawal of troops by 15 March just two days before the Majlis elections. 

Sri Lanka is going to have both presidential and parliamentary elections sometime this year. New Delhi would expect the ruling dispensation in Colombo to win the elections. In any case, India will have the cross-party support from Colombo as New Delhi has extended economic support to the Island country during its crisis. Only recently, the Opposition leader from Sri Lanka met the Foreign Minister and the National Security Advisor in New Delhi. 

Let us turn to P-5 countries, the big powers. Russia will have its elections from 15-17 March to re-elect the powerful President Vladimir Putin. In fact, Prime Minister Modi will be visiting Russia to attend the expanded summit of BRICS, which became a ten-member group last year from the original five. The whole world will be watching the bigger BRICS as it has the economic heft. 

In Europe, another powerful bloc, the European Union goes to elections between 6 and 9 June. Although EU elections are not much talked about here, the results would be important in terms of quite a few important issues – EU support to Ukraine war, its policy towards Israel-Hamas war, immigration policy, the trade negotiations including with India and so on. 

Now on the big one, elections are to be held this year in the United States. With some reservation, the US is the sole-super power today. Washington views India to be the counterpoint to China. To be sure, New Delhi is still not there, although it has the potential with right partnerships to become an alternative hub for manufacturing etc to China. There is going to be a rematch between Donald Trump and Joe Biden. Some observers call it a contest in gerontocracy as both Donald Trump and Biden, in their age, are much past their prime. 

Britain, the closet ally of the US will also have elections later this year. The current Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has to announce the time for the election. Some observers liken Sunak biding time with the man who was sentenced to death by the king. On his last wish, the man asked the king to give him a year till he makes the royal horse talk. The wish was granted. When asked on his queer wish of making the horse talk, the man said, within a year, anything could happen, the king may die, I may kick the bucket, or the horse may talk. That is how Sunak seems to buy his time. As per opinion polls, the Labour Party is sure to come to power. However, New Delhi wishes to complete the Free Trade Agreement with Britain before the elections, lest they should start the negotiations all over again. 

In the Global South, out of the countries which matter, Indonesia is going to presidential elections on 14 February. Joko Widodo who has reached his term limit is putting forward his son against Defence Minister Prabowo Subianto. If any of them does not reach the majority mark, there will be a run-off on 26 June. Mexico has a single term presidency so it will have a new government by June-end. South Africa, which is aligned with India’s position in BRICS and on some other issues is going to have a hotly contested election, so New Delhi will watch it carefully. 

Finally, back home, India is going to have its Parliament elections in April-May. There is lot of debate and some agitation on the autonomy of the institutions, misuse of enforcement agencies, use or misuse of EVMs etc. Notably, only four countries in the world use EVMs. The results of elections in India will determine her foreign policy mainly towards its neighbours. 

As said before, domestic elections are drawing in foreign policy issues. In the past, foreign policy used to be based on national consensus. But this is no more the case. Many democracies are perceived to be turning to autocracies. Hence, many observers are suggesting that world democracy is on the ballot this year. Therefore, not only domestic politics, but foreign policies and world politics are going to be impacted by the elections this year. ---INFA 

(Copyright, India News & Feature Alliance)