ROUND THE WORLD
New Delhi, 31 January 2006
Diplomatic Tug Of
War
India AND Energy Insecurity
By Dr. Chintamani
Mahapatra
School of International Studies, JNU
The diplomatic tug of war surrounding the proposed deal
between India and the US to establish
cooperation in civilian nuclear technology is born out of emerging energy
insecurity.
The American pressure on India to support its
confrontational approach towards Iran and Syria in exchange of US agreement to
supply civilian nuclear technology to India is the beginning of a challenge to
Indian quest for assured supply of energy to fuel its growing economy.
Geo-political analysts understand that the growing demand
for oil and gas and the shrinking supply of these two energy resources may
provide the real basis on which future wars are going to be fought. Although
the Western analysts and political leaders are focused on the rising
requirement of energy resources in China
and India
and predict that these two emerging Asian economic giants will shortly be
competing and scrambling for assured energy supplies, the Americans and
Europeans are not lagging behind.
With five per cent population, the Americans consume about
quarter of the world energy. While it is an oil and gas producing country, the US is
increasingly becoming dependent on oil imports from external sources. The
European demand for oil and gas too is consistently rising. Both India and China are late comers to the
industrial age. They have started their economic and industrial performance
from a low base and hence in terms of percentage of their energy demands in the
future, these two economies become more visible. But the industrial economies
of Europe, Japan and the US consume the
larger chunk of the world energy resources and in terms of absolute quantities
these countries will continue be on the top.
The major European countries, such as Germany, Britain
and France; Japan and the US all are strategizing to meet the
future demands of hydrocarbon resources. France,
for instance, has invested tremendously in the generation of civilian nuclear
power, Germany has signed a
deal with Russia,
the second largest oil and gas exporter, to build a pipeline to buy the Russian
energy resources. The US is
seeking to buy LNG from Russia.
China too is developing a
network of relationship with the oil and gas producing countries of the
Middle-East and even Latin America. It is also
in the process of acquiring basing facilities in some countries to protect the
routes of its energy imports.
Compared to the Americans, Chinese and others, India’s energy
consumption is much lower. Americans, for instance, consume about 20 million
barrels of oil per day, the Chinese consume about 6 to 7 million bpd. But India’s figure
is about 2 million bpd. China’s
demands in the future will be much more than that of India. Yet, India has to
meet its growing energy demands more and more through imports alone. In order
to do that the Government of India has been making modest attempts to build its
own energy corridors. The gas pipeline project with Iran,
the proposed investment in Syria
along with the Chinese, efforts towards improving energy cooperation with Saudi Arabia and India’s
efforts to acquire advanced civilian nuclear technology from the United States
are all aimed at managing the country’s energy security.
Politics and diplomacy, however, have erected significant
barricades and it would require no less effort to overcome these difficulties.
The most significant challenge is clearly coming from India’s emerging strategic partner—the United States.
The American energy policy and strategy are guided by both economic and
strategic considerations.
Unlike the Europeans, Japanese and other Asian countries,
the US
is not dependent on the Middle-East for its energy supply. It receives the bulk
of its external energy resources from NAFTA partners, such as Canada, Mexico
and Venezuela.
The current political standoff with Venezuela
does not pose such a big threat to US energy security.
But the fact remains that the power, which is least
dependent on the Middle-Eastern oil, has maximum influence in this region. The US military presence in the Persian Gulf has
been robust since the `1991 Gulf War and has enhanced further since 9/11
terrorist attacks on New York and Washington, DC.
The US
is not as directly affected by the volatility of the Middle-Eastern politics
and security as others. In the process, Washington
exercises awesome leverage over its allies and friends in Europe and Asia.
The US confrontation with Iran on the nuclear issue, with
Syria on the issue of assassination of a former Lebanese Prime Minister, its
continuing military involvement in Iraq and unstinted support to Israel have
posed serious dilemmas for traditional US allies in Europe and for emerging
strategic partner like India.
During the days of non-alignment and cold war, New Delhi could afford to take diametrically opposite
positions vis-a-vis the US
on international events and issues. This luxury will be more and more scant as India intensifies its economic, defence and
political cooperation with the United
States.
The current differences with Washington
on Iran and Syria are stark
reminders of difficult days ahead. India
has strategic, economic and even political interests in the Middle-East, which
do not always converge with that of the United States. Sooner the Indian
Ministry of External Affairs begins an exercise to demarcate the diplomatic
boundaries on such issues better it would be for India to meet future challenges.
It so happens that India
has been seeking to ensure its energy security by building ties with countries,
such as Iran and Syria, which
are on the hit list of the US State Department and the Pentagon for various
reasons. We are building a similar ties with Saudi Arabia when the US ties with
that country has been faltering since the 9/11 incident.
Unlike in the past, Washington considers India to be an
influential international actor and fears that Indian engagement with difficult
countries in the Middle-East could spoil the US approach. How can India
befriend the US and its smaller Middle-Eastern adversaries at the same time?
India has to begin preparations for getting the right answer, which can
maintain and protect its national interests.--INFA
(Copyright, India News and Feature
Alliance)
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