Political Diary

New Delhi, 30 January 2024

BJP MASTERSTROKE

OPP NEEDS NEW LANGUAGE

By Poonam I Kaushish 

The caste genie unleashed by our polity nearly three decades ago is back in the heart of political discourse as vote-banks on caste lines are easier to build. Post Ram Lalla idol’s consecration and call for expanding “our consciousness from Dev to Desh…beginning of a new chakra,” Prime Minister Modi played another masterstroke by awarding Bharat Ratna to Bihar’s socialist OBC (Backward class) icon and messiah of social justice late former Chief Minister  Karpoori Thakur. 

From “Ram kaaj” to “garib kaaj” the BJP blended its Hindutva agenda with the social justice plank and hopes to make a big dent in the non-dominant backward castes votes, especially EBCs (Extremely Backward class) by honouring Thakur. Specially, in Bihar where it has been unsuccessful in wooing the community to its side thanks to sway of entrenched backward satraps Nitish and Lalu who owe their rise to adroit political and administrative measures aimed at EBCs.

Besides, this would not only help BJP to counter effects of Bihar’s recent caste survey, offset Congress’s repeated demand for nationwide caste census but importantly counter the two Yadav community stalwarts Bihar’s RJD Lalu & family and UP’s Samajwadi Akhilesh’s OBC politics by showcasing the Party as its champion including EBC’s and MBC’s (Most Backward Class) by making a direct appeal to them. Especially the non-Yadav cluster of about 200 EBC’s such as nai to which Thakur belonged.

True, even prior to this, the Party was reaching out to Dalits and OBC but currently it hopes to consolidate all Hindu votes under the Hindu inclusivity umbrella. As it stands, BJP has the highest support of OBCs which has grown exponentially from 7% in 1971 to 22% in 2009 and doubled to 44% in 2019. The NDA received 54% OBC support in 2019. 

As Modi hails from this community, the Party’s claim of higher representation to OBCs in ticket allocations and at the Centre alongside formation of  Justice Rohini OBC Commission to address their issues through the Constitutional framework have helped it get OBC support. There are 28 OBC Ministers in the Union Cabinet, 80 MPs and several OBC Governors including President Murmu who is tribal. 

Alongside there is a buzz BJP’s larger strategy is to either snatch JD(U)’s Nitish back into NDA fold as majority of these castes are presently in JD(U) or break up the Party and alliance whereby BJP becomes a viable option for them. It rubbishes Opposition gripes as sour grapes as it is not the first time an award is being given for the ruling Party to take credit.

BJP has also focussed its efforts on non-dominant OBCs and MBC, which have been ignored by Opposition. This strategy has helped it in 2019 general elections across all socio-economic classes amongst OBCs, except middle class. Resulting in SP being reduced from 35 MPs in 2004 to just 5 in 2019; RJD from 22 seats in 1999 and 2004 to zilch in 2019; RLD from 5 seats in 2009 to nil in 2019. Consequently, out of every 100 BJP voters 49 belong to OBC community. A fact which bugs INDIA.

A bolt out of the blue for Opposition INDIA bloc, for Congress it is a double whammy. One, both Mamata’s TMC in West Bengal and Kejriwal’s AAP in Punjab have decided to go it alone in polls. Two, even though it tepidly welcomed the award, it dismissed it as “politics of symbolism” and politically motivated with an eye on the upcoming elections.

“The country needs real justice and caste census would be true tribute to Thakur,” said Rahul. While JD(U)’s Nitish has rushed to lay claim over his legacy and  tried to take credit for Thakur’s tribute, RJD dubbed the decision as driven by “BJP’s political compulsions and a gimmick’.”

Undeniably, the honour bestowed on Thakur popularly known as Jannayak, who hails from EBC will impact the political landscape as Parties are vying for OBC and EBC voters as they account for 63% and 36% population in Bihar’s caste survey. Coupled with Ram temple, tables have turned for INDIA bloc which has been sending out confusing signals over the mandir. They will now have to figure out a new language to respond to BJP’s direct appeal which Modi has taken beyond the realm of religion to caste. It will need clarity on why it is keen on displacing BJP.

Thakur belonging to a poor family left an indelible mark on Bihar’s deprived section and is credited with not only the rise of backward caste politics but was first to push for their empowerment. Pioneer of the ‘Karpoori formula’, the two-time Chief Minister gave 26% reservation to OBC’s and communities which eventually set the tone for 1990 Mandal Commission recommendation and later caste census with its layered reservation formula for EBC’s and MBC’s.

Known for his integrity, probity, simple living he removed English as a compulsory subject as students from poor families found it tough, introduced prohibition but with a soft touch. Unfortunately he was pushed to the background by his disciples Lalu, Nitish and late Ram Vilas Paswan whose RJD, JD(U), LJP emerged as  influential political and electoral  regional Parties.

At another level it is an example of political hypocrisy in politics.  Clearly, in the Kafkaesque world where caste identity is sticky baggage, difficult to dislodge in social settings and where caste vs caste fight and decide one’s fate no Party wants to jeopardize its caste vote banks. Wherein, the fight for getting the upper hand and votes has been reduced to politics of optics and perception, underscoring present reality and exposes the socio-political undercurrents at play.

Leading to rising tensions between castes over perceived injustices and demand for quotas stem from unfulfilled aspirations of employment and upward mobility. Simultaneously, quotas have failed to either solve the job problem or promote inclusion. 

In INDIA bloc’s thinking when caste becomes central to livelihood issues which are centered on identification and reservation, they feel there is a greater chance it will have greater electoral pull than religion. Congress’s Rahul has already sounded the bugle “Jitne abadi utna haq,” to garner votes and somehow dislodge Modi while Nitish has called for lifting 50% reservation ceiling.

On the face of it, Opposition leaders assert goal of caste census is OBCs welfare, Sic. It’s a ploy to divide Hindu votes on caste lines to weaken BJP in 2024 elections. Said a senior Congress leader, “Caste census would open another flank and create problems for  BJP. The axis would be pro-Modi vs anti-Modi and we will try to mobilise OBCs. This will be Mandal 2.0, different from Mandal 1.0 which involved aggressive OBC mobilization.”

Failing to realize politicisation of caste is a double-edged sword. Caste needs politics as much as politics need caste. When caste groupings make politics their sphere of activities they get a chance to assert their identity and strive for power and position. True, none can fault granting equal opportunities to all. But whether this would translate into equal outcome is debatable. 

Questionably, will not caste further fractionalize national politics? Will the run-up to 2024 elections be fought on caste basis? What the BJP and Opposition come up with will have consequences not just for INDIA bloc’s electoral fortunes but future of polity itself. Will they take the bait? The run-up to Election 2024 just got interesting.  ---- INFA 

(Copyright, India News & Feature Alliance)