Round The World

New Delhi, 5 January 2024

EAM in Russia

A 2024 OUTLOOK

By Prof. (Dr.) D.K. Giri

(Secretary General, Assn for Democratic Socialism) 

The External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar made a year-end visit to Russia to enhance ties. He had extensive discussions with his counterpart Sergey Lavrov and other stakeholders in India-Russia bilateralism that has been strongly continuing since 1971. In addition to the usual trade and diplomatic exchanges, it would be interesting to decipher the strategic line the EAM would have taken for the New Year. Unarguably, India’s position vis-à-vis the United States and Russia is perhaps the most important strategic question India needs to address in 2024. 

It may be in the fitness of things to allude to the US thinking on China and Russia who are currently in a tight embrace. Whether India agrees with the US perspective on this alliance and needs to align its own strategy with the US thinking is another geo-political corollary New Delhi ought to cognize. By far, the most arresting articulations have come from the Republican candidate Vivek Ramaswamy. As he disclaimed himself, he was not laying out his strategy vis-à-vis India-China-Russia as he has an Indian name, it is his conviction that such a line would be in the best interest of the US. 

The Republican candidate Ramaswamy wants to put his “laser focus on pulling Russia out of its alliance with China. According to him that will mean ending Russia’s war on Ukraine on reasonable terms that dilutes Russia-China tie-up.” He says he would fly to Moscow and give a categorical assurance to Putin that NATO will not include Ukraine into its fold. Ukraine should no longer demand the retrieval of Crimea. At any rate, he would bring an end to the war, which is inflicting heavy costs on the US and others, and more important, which will reduce Russian dependence on China. 

Strategically, Ramaswamy wants to balance economic issues with national security concerns. His second premise is that the Chinese Communist Party is the biggest threat to the United States. It is no longer the Soviet Union which used to be the main adversary of the US as the former broke-up in 1991. Ramaswamy said that he would be looking forward to expanding relations with India in order to counter China. He emphasised, “the US should have a stronger strategic relationship with India, including even a military relationship in the Andaman Sea. Knowing that India, if necessary, could block the Malacca Strait through which actually China gets most of its Middle-East oil supplies. These are areas for real improvement in the US-India relationship”. Furthermore, he cited India, Israel, Brazil and Chile as countries he wants to build trade ties with in order to become completely economically independent from China. 

Jaishankar in his visit met the Russian President Vladimir Putin, held discussions with Deputy Prime Minister and the Minister of Industries and with his counterpart Sergey Lavrov. His interactions centred on bolstering the Special and Privileged Partnership. As usual, the exchanges covered multiple sectors such as trade and economics, energy, defence, connectivity, cultural and people-to-people. Global and regional developments also featured in their discussions. President Putin invited Prime Minister Narendra Modi to visit Russia in 2024. Putin said to EAM, “we will be glad to see our friend Mr. Prime Minister Modi in Russia”.

From the available accounts of the visit, not much substantially accrued from EAM’s interactions with several leaders, officials and a cross-section of agencies. A plenty of shibboleths and usual hyperboles was on display. Even the tangled issue of India buying military gear after the US sanctions following the Ukrainian war was not resolved. On the contrary, the indication got reconfirmed that India’s traditional dependence on Russia for military supplies is steadily declining. There were tight-lipped statements both from EAM and Russians about the prospect of military trade between the two countries. 

Notably, Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov said that Russia was ‘respectful’ of New Delhi’s need to ‘diversify’ military procurement and sources for other technical requirements. It seems the decoupling between New Delhi and Moscow on military ties is sinking in faster in Russia than in India. 

Perhaps it is in order that New Delhi reviews its military trade policy with Russia. Objective observers have long contended that India has been at a loss in more than one way in its defence relations with the Soviet Union/Russia. Talking of the present, India is awaiting delivery of several defence equipments from Russia. To mention just one deal, India’s military expected delivery of 70,000-80,000 Kalashnikov AK-203 assault rifles some of which were to be built with Russian technology in Uttar Pradesh. That consignment did not arrive. Consequently, Ministry of Defence approved the purchase of 73,000 additional Sig Saur patrol rifles from the US on the request of the Indian army. The Indian Army Chief General Manoj Pandey had confidently announced that the Army would receive AK-203s by March, which did not materialise. 

There are quite a few logistical and transactional issues currently on India-Russia military trade which may or may not get resolved quite soon. Besides these, Russia’s defence industrial complex faces a few challenges at the moment. Moscow needs to focus on manufacturing and supplying defence products to the Russian army. Some of Russian companies have offered alternative formats of cooperation in the global arms market. This gave a clear message to Russia’s overseas clients, including India, that Russian defence companies would not be able to meet the needs the overseas requirements due to the ongoing war in Ukraine. 

The second challenge for the Russian defence industries stems from sanctions imposed by the West on Russia following the war. Third, the setbacks and stalemate in the war put a question mark on Russian military capability as many observers believe that the Russian army is struggling with sub-standard defence material. Indian military experts are suggesting that it is high time India ends its dependence on Russian military supplies and instead becomes self-reliant or finds alternative suppliers. 

The Russian declining military power as well as trade foregrounds India’s need to align with the strategy being conceived by US leadership as is evident from the utterances of one of the candidates mentioned above. His rating in the opinion polls has apparently increased after he outlined his foreign policy. There is a concern in Indian circles that while Washington wants India to disengage from Russia, it continues to patronise Pakistan and offers to make-up with China. 

This is where Indian diplomacy has to weigh in. New Delhi needs to drive home the strategic point that Russia is not USA’s main adversary, it is China which is a threat not only to the US but to many other countries, and if we recall catastrophic Covid, then to the entire world. This could perhaps be one significant writing on the wall New Delhi should be cognizant of from the EAM’s last week’s five-day visit to Russia. ---INFA 

(Copyright, India News & Feature Alliance)