Open Forum

New Delhi, 14 December 2023

Fossil Fuels & De-Carbonisation

NATIONS DIVIDED AT COP28

By Dhurjati Mukherjee 

Controversy took centre stage at COP28 with many countries resisting the term for the first time for a global phase-out of fossil fuels, which account for three-quarters of greenhouse gas emission, leading to global warming. Hectic efforts were made to change the draft phrase ‘phase out’ to “reducing consumption and production of fossil fuels, in an equitable manner so as to achieve net zero by, before, or around 2050 in keeping with the science”. The pressure came from coal and oil producing countries, including India. 

However, the EU and the US were reported to be disappointed and wanted stronger language to be used. India, on its part, has been trying to reduce CO₂ emissions, including methane emissions by 2030 with sufficient progress made in increasing production and use of renewable energy. In a Germanwatch report in the environmental realm, India’s performance showed significant improvement from 31^st rank in 2004 to 7^th in 2023. The country maintained its top 10 position, figuring among the highest performers for the fifth year in a row. 

The draft includes concerns that the goal of developed nations to mobilize $100 billion per year by 2020 in the context of transparency on implementation was not met in 2021. Climate finance has been another contentious issue like in the past two-three conferences as the developed world has failed to keep its commitments.   

An important outcome of COP28 was a new loss and damage fund for the poorest and most vulnerable countries which would help them deal with the irreversible impact of climate disaster. Host country UAE and Germany both pledged $100m (£79m) to this start-up fund, which will aim to keep up with the rising costs caused by extreme weather and slow-onset disasters such as sea level rise, ocean acidification and melting glaciers. The initial funding of close to $300m – including £60m from the UK, $24.5m from the US and $10m from Japan – is a much-needed boost for the agreement. 

Pledging money raises hopes but only when it’s translated into reality will results are positive. According to OECD, the estimate of climate finance provided and mobilised by developed countries in 2020 was about $83 billion, whereas Oxfam in its ‘Climate finance shadow report’ noted that the amount was merely $21-24.5 billion. Thus there’s need to scale up resources several times through enhanced provision and mobilisation by the developed world, as pointed Union Environment Minister Bhupendra Yadav at the summit. 

Regarding emissions, both the US and China lead the race with 40%, followed by India, the Russian Federation and Japan. But the situation has been changing as developing countries are rapidly moving towards industrialisation as well as urbanisation. There is also a trend, somewhat similar to the Western world, where over consumption of the wealthiest and increased industrialisation has been exacerbating emissions in the Third World. 

Reports indicate that the top emitting countries of the future could come from the developing world – Brazil, India, South Africa and Indonesia. Their challenges are quite serious as they must encounter the twin problems of preserving environment while lifting hundreds of people out of poverty, and these get acute in their quest for industrialisation and urbanisation. Whatever may the targets be, the ability to control global emissions or move towards a net-zero goal in the next two decades appear to be an impossibility. There is lack of political courage to bend the emission curve by enforcing laws and regulations. Therefore, there’s a dire need to examine the high levels of pollution, specially air, being witnessed in India. Though attempts are being made for a transition to a low-carbon economy, the task is arduous, given the country is an agro-based economy, and stubble burning is a challenge. 

Reports reveal that India emits around 5.2 million tonnes of PM 2.5 annually not accounting dust from construction. Further, 53% comes from biomass burning and industrial activities. Burning of agricultural residues has hit headlines several times as the problem continues in Punjab, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh.  

India’s greenhouse gas emissions from crop residue burning increased 75% over the past decade with MP accounting for the second largest area under fires after Punjab, as per satellite-based study by researchers at Indian Institute of Science Education & Research, Bhopal. While it’s well known that stubble fires in Punjab and Haryana play a major role in early winter episodes of air pollution over the NCR, the study, covering 602 districts, revealed an exponential rise in the farm area burnt in MP and other states outside the Indo-Gangetic plains. 

The other critical air pollution is from industrial effluents, which in most countries are strictly monitored and regulated. But not in India. The industrial segment is the second largest contributor of PM 2.5. and most States are casual in acting. Though in recent times its changing, there’s need for stricter monitoring of environmental regulations.   

Meanwhile, reports that the world is likely to witness a 4-7-fold increase in heat-related deaths by mid-century is a cause of concern. The Lancet’s new global projections report last year warned that individuals were, on average, exposed to 86 days of health-threatening high temperature of which 60% were made at least twice as likely to occur because of human caused climate change. The governments are to blame. Projections of a 2⁰C hotter world reveal a bleak  future and are a reminder that the scale of mitigation efforts has been grossly inadequate.  

Similarly, another more depressing picture emerged from the UN Environment Programme (UNEP) which warned that the world is on track to witness a 2.5-2.9-degree Celsius temperature rise above pre-industrial levels if all the current pledges under the Paris Agreement are implemented by 2030. This was not foreseen by experts few years back as such temperature rise would lead to devastating consequences of climate change in terms of frequent extreme weather events in this century. The report revealed there’s no change, emissions in 2030 will be 22 gigatonnes higher than the 1.5⁰ C limit allows. The UN Secretary General rightly attributed this to a “failure of leadership, a betrayal of the vulnerable and a massive missed opportunity”.  

It needs to be reiterated that decarbonisation must happen in every aspect of our lives from deploying greening solutions for heavy polluters to better monitoring so that environmental regulations are complied with. For decades, India has been dealing with the problem of development versus climate change. However, though carbon intensity may be reduced by 25-30% by 2030, the zero-emission target by 2050 may be difficult or rather impossible to keep. 

With the current pressure on reducing dependence on fossil fuels, India, China and many other emerging countries will have to think afresh in evolving their development strategy. India faces a big challenge with huge developmental needs, having such a vast population whose living standards must be improved at a faster pace and thus energy needs would continue to increase. How India and other countries would reduce dependence on fossil fuels remains to be seen. ----INFA 

(Copyright, India News & Feature Alliance)