REWIND

New Delhi, 30 November 2023

POLL PROSPECTS AND THE INDIAN VOTER

By Inder Jit 

(Released on 24 October 1989) 

India’s electorate seems to have come of age, judging by the general atmosphere. The surprise announcement of the Lok Sabha poll did cause considerable excitement. So did the added decision to hold simultaneous Assembly polls in U.P., Karnataka and some other States. Nevertheless, life has continued to flow at its normal pace. There is no sign yet of any wave, big or small. Rival party conclaves have met to finalize their respective manifestoes and decide on candidates, but without any noticeable fervour outside. No one eagerly waited for the party manifestoes. The interest in the tickets remained limited to the aspirants, their families and friends. This is how it should be in any mature system. Parliamentary democracy provides for day to day struggle for power and continuous education. Every sitting of Parliament helps people to know and judge the rulers as well as the Opposition. Ultimately, voters go mainly by broad impression. 

Both the Congress-I and the Opposition speak confidently of success. Appropriately, Mr Rajiv Gandhi, like Indira Gandhi, prefers not to speak in terms of numbers. However, those around him talk stridently of bagging at least 300 to 325 seats out of the total of 528 seats, excluding 14 of Assam. The Centre’s Intelligence Bureau is said to have made two assessments in recent weeks in keeping with a practice started during Indira Gandhi’s time. The first is said to have given the Congress-I 350 seats and the second 325. But experienced non-Congress-I politicians reject the assessment out of hand asserting: “Remember, the IB cocksurely told Indira Gandhi in 1977 that she would win hands down!” Mr V.P. Singh, too, prefers not to join the guessing game of numbers. However, Mr Devi Lal assuredly predicted a landslide in favour of the Opposition. He told me: “We will repeat Haryana all over India. We will win 450 seats!” 

At least, one knowledgeable Congressman agrees with the Chaudhuri. We should know. He had the privilege of working as a trusted aide of Indira Gandhi for many years. Three weeks ago, he gave the Congress-I 150 seats. Last week, however, he told me in Parliament’s Central Hall: “Now it will be no more than 111 seats. Take Bihar. I give the Congress-I 5 seats out of 54 below the Ganga and 5 seats above. I am unable to pick even 20 sure seats for the Congress-I in U.P. out of a total of 85.” Importantly, two senior Bihar Congressmen present did not disagree. Could I identify him? “Not yet,” he said. “Let us first see who are the candidates.” Another shrewd Congress-I leader seemed to agree on the crucial importance of the candidates. He told me: “The Congress-I and the Opposition presently enjoy 35 per cent support each. Thirty per cent is the floating vote. They will make up their minds only on the basis of the candidates - and the prevailing hawa.” 

A few factors, however, seem to be clear. Broadly, the Opposition continues to be Mr Rajiv Gandhi’s best friend, just as Mr Rajiv Gandhi has become the Opposition’s best bet. The National Front today is more united than a month ago. However, it does not still inspire full confidence of the people as a credible alternative to the Congress-I. Even the vast number who feel that Mr V.P. Singh can give India a clean and efficient Government are not sure if he would be allowed to become Prime Minister by rival aspirants even if the National Front was to get a majority. Mr Gandhi, for his part, has greatly undermined his own credibility not only by the Bofors scandal but also by what are widely described as his “many failures”, especially the recent spurt in prices. This is important in the context of one basic fact of electoral life. Negative votes are crucial. Governments are voted out. The Opposition is seldom voted in. 

Mr Gandhi may, however, be said to have done well by himself by the surprise poll timing, which appeared momentarily to have caught the Opposition on the wrong foot. In one stroke, he has re-established his democratic credentials in the face of persistent talk that he would manipulate to somehow get the poll put off for a year through the imposition of Emergency, even if this involved a “limited scrap” with Pakistan in Punjab or Kashmir. He has also scotched rumours that he would first topple the Devi Lal Government in Haryana. Simultaneously, Mr Gandhi has impressed many with his little-known capacity to play politics like his mother and fully exploit both the Panchayati Raj and Nagarpalika bills as also their defeat at the hands of the Opposition. Not only that. Many had expected him to delay the poll because of more revelations in the Bofors scandal. He has now projected an image of courage by choosing to face the people earlier than he need have. 

Much will eventually depend upon two things. First, the ability of the Opposition to come together and ensure a one-to-one contest through formal or informal arrangements. Second, the ability of the Congress-I to ensure effective unity in its ranks. To take the second first. Infighting has time and again played havoc with the Congress-I in poll battles. It could cause even greater disaster this year when a question-mark has gone up over Mr Gandhi’s capacity as a vote-getter. The Prime Minister has, no doubt, tried to keep the Congress-I united by giving representation to all groups in the State Election Committees. But this does not mean that these Committees will put their party before self, choose the best candidate for the poll and work for victory. Candidly confided one leader: “Why should I do my best. Success will only strengthen the Chief Minister and the PCC Chief --- and destroy my own prospects.” 

Ten days ago, the chances of the Opposition ensuring one-to-one contests seemed bleak. But the sudden announcement of the poll has proved a blessing in disguise, as it did for the Opposition in 1977. It has forced the Opposition to bury the hatchet speedily and come together to give the Congress-I straight fight. The CPM has indicated the Left Front’s decision to join hands with the National Front, notwithstanding the latter’s arrangements, formal or otherwise, with the BJP. Two weeks ago, the CPM and the Congress-I seemed to be moving closer following Mr Jyoti Basu’s dinner meeting with Mr Gandhi and their friendly flight together to Haldia and back. But Mr Basu has since reiterated that the Congress-I is still the CPM’s Enemy No. 1. He has, no doubt, stated that the CPM will not share the platform with the BJP. He has, however, clarified that it has no objection if the Janata Dal has seat adjustments with the BJP. 

Speculation continues about the Muslim vote, especially in U.P. and Bihar where it has considerable clout in almost half their total seats -- 85 plus 54. Initially, the Muslims were said to be wholly anti-Congress-I in view of ‘anti-Muslim’ riots. But they are said to have started having second thoughts when the Janata Dal joined hands with the BJP, despite Communist protests. They were thereafter seen to be largely back in the Congress fold when the BJP reaffirmed its commitment to Hindu Rashtra --- and Mr L.K. Advani was seen performing Ram Shila Poojan. The strong secular stance taken by Mr V.P. Singh, Mr Devi Lal and others against politicising the Ram Janmabhoomi issue is said to have largely restored the original position -- anti-Congress-I and pro-Janata. Truth perhaps lies somewhere between the rival claims which slur over one fact. The Muslims do not necessarily operate as vote banks. 

In the final analysis, the vast majority of Indian voters can be counted upon to act maturely. They may not be highly educated and well-versed in modern idiom. But they have their two feet firmly on the ground and can differentiate between right and wrong, good and evil. They cannot be misled by gimmickry, frame-ups and brazen official propaganda on AIR and Doordarshan. In fact, all that has been sought to be put across has been more than neutralised by the weekly episode of the Mahabharat and lately of the Vishwamitra serial. These have refreshed and re-educated the masses in India’s great tradition and values of satya and asatya and the basic obligations of a good ruler. Every episode in recent weeks has come to be related willy nilly to present-day India and the crisis of values. The Nehru Centenary celebrations, too, have helped to crystallise the issues. Our people will surely give their verdict loud and clear. --- INFA

(Copyright, India News and Feature Alliance)