Open Forum
New Delhi, 15 November 2023
Climate Goals
CAN INDIA MEET CHALLENGE?
By Dhurjati Mukherjee
With the
UN Climate Change Conference (COP28) scheduled to begin on
30 November in the UAE, meeting climate goals would be in the forefront. Moreover,
as usual, the developing countries will pressurise the developed nations to
grant more resources to the former to switch to green technologies. But again
though per capita emission of countries such as India, Brazil or even China are
much less compared to the Western world, the total emissions of these countries
are a cause for concern and would be a bone of contention.
The Presidency
outlined four key goals this year, alongside the negotiations process which
includes fast-tracking a just, orderly and equitable energy transition, fixing
climate finance, putting nature, lives and livelihoods at the heart of climate
action and mobilising for the most inclusive COP so far. Speeding up the energy
transition is set to be the main issue, as countries remain divided over how to
tackle the world’s unsustainable use of fossil fuels. Clearly, western
nations would be pushing for a world to first phase out the ‘unabated’ global
use of coal, oil and gas. Other negotiating blocks and countries are likely to
push back on this, including major fossil fuel producers like Saudi Arabia and
developing countries, which are relying on fossil fuels to grow their
economies.
The need
for an ambitious agreement will be underscored by the first-ever global stock
taking at the very start of the summit. This ‘report card’ on climate
progress will show how far countries are from meeting their commitments under
the Paris Agreement to limit global warming.
Meanwhile,
in spite of the multiple challenges faced by countries, a recently released
report of the Climate Vulnerable Forum (CVF) -- an international coalition of
58 countries highly vulnerable to a warming planet -- revealed that India, Indonesia,
the UK and Switzerland are among many economies currently on track to meet the Paris
agreement goals based on their pledged targets for 2030. Of the major
economies, India, home to almost a fifth of the world’s population, produces
just 2.9 tonne of CO2 per person compared to the G7 average of 11.7
tonne per capita emission (2022 data). Against the global per capita emission
of 6.4 tonne of CO2 in 2021, EU’s (27 nations) per capita emission
is just 8.1 tonne and the US’s per capita emission stands at 17.5 tonne – six
times more than India.
Flagging
the gaps, the CVF’s study titled ‘Traffic Light Assessment Report: Fair
Share Pathways to Combat Global Climate Breakdown’ aims to hold nations
accountable by assessing their alignment with the “Paris Agreement’s
temperature and equity in principles.” Though the report is quite hopeful for
India, delving into the matter and considering the increasing energy needs in
the coming one or two decades, the scenario may not be all that encouraging.
As far
as New Delhi is concerned, the energy sector needs to adopt new technologies.
The country imports around $160 billion worth of fossil fuel energy and this is
likely to double in next 15 years or so. Over 75% requirements are met by
fossil fuels like oil, gas and coal. Thus, there is need to develop green
hydrogen as it will help India to decarbonise sectors such as steel, cement,
fertilizer, copper, oil refining etc, the steep reduction in solar and wind
power rates makes green hydrogen an ideal production route.
At CO26,
India pledged to net zero carbon emissions by 2070 with commitments to half its
energy from renewables and lower the carbon intensity of the economy by at
least 45% from 2006 levels within 2030. Carbon-related industrial processes must
shift to cleaner technologies which have already started but more needs to be
done to achieve the target. Similarly, buses and transport vehicles will have
to give way to electric vehicles, which are being used in metros but must be spread
faster across the country.
The
transformation of the automobile sector will span from primary to component
manufacturing as EVs are capital intensive, require batteries but few
components. These changes would be aided by information and communication
technology, AI etc. Experts are unanimous in their opinion about green hydrogen
being the best option in our quest to reduce carbon intensity. It is believed this
will leverage the country’s abundant solar and wind resources and substantially
reduce energy imports in the long run.
India is
estimated to consume 11.7 million tonnes of carbon-intensive grey hydrogen by
2030 primarily in the refinery and fertilizer sectors, two-fold of the 5.5
million tonnes as of present times. This needs to be checked as global warming
can’t be allowed to aggravate. The new hydrogen capacity must be green that
could help bring down pollution to a great extent.
Meanwhile,
15 global health leaders, including three from India, demanded that fossil fuel
industry interests be kept out of climate negotiations. “Fossil fuel interests
have no place at climate negotiations”, health experts stated in an open letter
to Sultan Al-Jaber, President designate of COP28and UAE minister. The
signatories called on him and leaders of all countries to commit to an
accelerated just and equitable phase-out of fossil fuels to limit global
warming and protect health from the devastating impacts of climate change,
including extreme weather events.
India is
committed to steadily phase out fossil fuel and has declared the National Green
Hydrogen Mission pledging a capital outlay of Rs 19,744 crore targeting 5
million metric tonnes by 2030 which will be zero carbon. Hydrogen can be utilised
for long-duration storage of renewable energy, replacement of fossil fuels in
industry, clean transportation and potentially also for decentralised power
generation, aviation and marine transport. Experts believe his would bring down
the price of hydrogen from the present $4 per kg to around Rs $1 by 2030.
Indigenisation
of electrolyser manufacturing will be the key for India to accelerate the green
hydrogen ecosystem. To address the low supply in the world, the country is
building capacities to produce 20GW of long-lasting electrolysers in the
present decade. Though this is a big challenge, it is expected that technical
knowhow as also investments would be forthcoming. Besides, the country’s
electrolyser manufacturing costs are expected to be 30% lower than western
nations and comparable to China.
Reports
indicate that 70% of the electrolyser manufacturing components can be
indigenised and domestic production can go up further with right partnerships
for technology and manufacturing knowhow of critical components.
Obviously,
the green transition brings unique challenges, new opportunities with some
risks as well. The change in mining technology and the vast coal economy of the
country are vital challenges in India’s quest for a green economy. Though both China
and India have consistently refused to phase out coal-fired power, not just at
COP26 and even later, innovative solutions need to be found to reduce emissions
from such plants. With steady mechanisation of these plants, employment is
steadily getting reduced which is a problem for our country and may be for others
too.
The long
road to 2070 is quite far off but there is a need to think and evolve right
strategies. The public sector must take the lead and develop cooperation with
foreign countries for joint ventures and/or technology transfer. If green
hydrogen production can be boosted – and already BPCL is collaborating with
Bhabha Atomic Research Centre – India would be much ahead in controlling carbon
intensity and shifting to green energy. ---INFA
(Copyright, India News & Feature Alliance)
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