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New Delhi, 17 October 2023

State Polls Calculations

IS BJP LOSING GROUND?

By Dhurjati Mukherjee 

Assembly elections in Rajasthan, MadhyaPradesh and Chhattisgarh are expected to have a wide effect on the national scenario as they form a core area of the Hindi belt. In these statesthe BJP and Congress may clash directly. Opinion surveys so far have given a clear edge to the Congress in Chhattisgarh, while in Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh the contest is expected to be tough. And while the BJP is banking on Modi’s image, the Congress is putting a host of social and economic issues to attract the lower segments of society. 

Campaigning expectedly has picked up momentum. The BJP is counting on the success of G-20 and putting India’s strength in global order, whereas the Opposition is harping on issues of unemployment, inflation and social fabric being destroyed. Freebies such as reducing LPG prices, subsistence allowance to women etc are being announced. While the Centre  has reduced the price of an LPG by Rs 200 -- in trying to counter Rajasthan which sells these at just Rs 500 -- global oil prices are rising, which obviously will strain the economy, but votes instead are being eyed.    

The Congress has importantly promised a nation-wide caste survey which has sent a clear signal that it wants to give more opportunities in education and job quotas to the EBCs, who are deprived and oppressed. This is expected to have an enormous effect on the lower castes in the Hindi heartland. Moreover, the old pension scheme that has been implemented in Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh and Himachal Pradesh appears to have tilted the scales in favour of the Congress. Though experts believe that such measures benefit the middle class more than the poor and deprived sections, wooing the huge middle class can go a long way in winning elections. 

As for the BJP, though it had constituted the Rohini Commission to look intoSub-Categorisation of OBCs, it has been hesitant on this issue. There is no doubt that the demands for a nation-wide caste census and sub-categorisation of reservation benefits may have a deep impact on OBCs. While the BJP has maintained a studied silence, Congress is on the offensive. Only time will tell how much of the OBC votes will come to it. The backward castes are up in arms and current trends reveal that they would possibly back whichever party assures them better facilities. 

In fact, welfarism has emerged as a common theme across parties and states. Economic growth has not been creating jobs and there is massive unemployment and underemployment in the states, more so because governments are not fillings up vacancies in critical areas like health and education. There are other issues which go against the ruling parties in power that is, inflation in essential commodities and dwindling sources of income.   

In Rajasthan, the BJP by sidelining its former Chief Minister Vasundhara Raje and promoting lesser-known leaders may impact its fortunes. Similarly, in curbing the importance of Shivraj Singh Chouhan in Madhya Pradesh, the party may be making a tactical mistake with a formidable Kamal Nath of the Congress firmly entrenched. The incumbency factor weighs very much in both the States. However, a redeeming feature for the Congress is that its Rajasthan Chief Minister Ashok Gehlotis firmly entrenched in the state and differences about leadership issues have been resolved. At the same time, he has ordered a caste survey in his state and in promised a survey if it comes to power. 

In Telangana, the Congress, which bifurcated the state from Andhra Pradesh, there are expectations that the party would make its presence felt. Having won Karnataka elections, it is expected that the Dalits and OBCs would be attracted to it, more so because of Party President Mallikarjun Kharge. The party has created a welfare strategy based on guarantees that may benefit the poor and help the electoral prospects of the Congress. 

Meanwhile, Sonia Gandhi’s call in Parliament for a sub-quota for backward classes within the 33% quota for women is expected to catch the voters’ attention. The party realised that combining class with caste, the Hindi heartland’s reality would make for a potent political package to influence the electorate. The OBC leaders are at the top of the leadership, to mention the names of Siddaramaiah, Ashok Gehlot and Bhupesh Bhagel. In fact, the Opposition combine is taking the OBCs seriously as these constitute half the country’s population. It expects the demand for adequate representation and distribution of wealth and opportunities to generate hope among the OBCs, segments of which have been enticed by the call of Hindutva despite it giving them no real empowerment. 

Congress leader Rahul Gandhi has been asking this segment to demand real empowerment instead of settling for religious dominance. Addressing a public meeting in Chhattisgarh recently, andpushing the button to transfer an instalment of money to beneficiaries of a housing scheme, he said: “Modi too pushes the button and PSUs get privatised, Adani gets airports, mines, railways and other infrastructure contracts”. But he indicated that his party has been working for the poor and the backward sections and in most Congress ruled states, special schemes have been started to help them. 

Meanwhile, global reports of exploitation and harassment of Muslims has put the BJP in a somewhat difficult position.  The half-yearly report of Hindutva Watch, a US-based research project, ‘Anti-Muslim Hate Speech Events in India’ referred to “255 documented incidents of hate speech gatherings targeting Muslims in the first half of 2023…Overwhelmingly, 205 incidents, 80% of these hate speech events occurred in BJP-ruled states and Union Territories”. The report added: “Overall, 42% of all hate speech gatherings in 17 states, which include two centrally controlled territories, were organized with the RSS…A concerning 33% of all the gatherings explicitly called for violence against Muslims”. Hindutva Watch pointed out that states like Maharashtra, Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Gujarat witnessed the highest number of hate speech gatherings. 

Remember, one of the big news recently has been the AIADMK, the biggest ally of the BJP in South India quitting the NDA. The BJP’s perceived attempts to swallow the political space of its partners after earning a toehold and a latent partiality to the Brahmanical order that reared its head during the Sanatan Dharma controversy are being seen as the reasons behind the rupture in the run-up to the general election. It may be mentioned here that the AIADMK has become the fourth major ally since 2019 to dump the BJP, following in the footsteps of the Janata Dal (United), Shiromani Akali Dal and the Shiv Sena (Uddhav Thackeray). 

The BJP has been perceived to be harassing the Muslim community in the hope that it would be recognised as a party dedicated only to the interests of strengthening and propagating Hindu religion and philosophy.  The Ram Temple is possibly opening to the public in January, again demonstrating that the RSS-BJP combine is wedded to preach and practice Hindu religion. But all this may not garner the expected votes to the party as larger social and economic issues are there and the lower castes are struggling for a better existence. 

While this is no doubt a political strategy and the ruling party understands this well, the question remains if the BJP may win the next elections due to Modi’s image and somewhat good governance? The voters will need to weigh their options carefully. ---INFA 

(Copyright, India News & Feature Alliance)