Open Forum

New Delhi, 11 October 2023

Flood Devastation

ACTUAL CONTROL MECHANISM VITAL

By Dhurjati Mukherjee 

The worst-ever recent floods in Sikkim due to the outburst in the South Lhonak Lake, located at 5200m (17,000 ft) was predicted by researchers about 20 years back. Experts feel that this was triggered because of dam building and unplanned construction along the Teesta’s downstream. Even lately, the 2021 study, published in journal Geomorphology, highlighted that the South Lhonak Lake witnessed a significant growth in the past decades due to glacial retreat, thereby increasing its chances of glacial lake outburst floods (GLOF). According to estimates, over 60 people have died and 130 are still missing due to the floods.   

Today the challenges of floods are of a different magnitude altogether. The monsoon has become more erratic and unpredictable, bringing extreme rainfall on the one hand and sudden drought on the other. Worryingly, India’s drought-prone area has increased by 57 percent since 1997 while instances of heavy rainfall have risen by almost 85 percent since 2012.  This can have far-reaching impacts, affecting several generations. The other factor is the occurrence of floods and landslides in the Himalayan region. 

Globally too,devastating floods have occurred, the most recent being in Libya where the eastern city of Derna was most affected due to the bursting of two dams, and deaths are expected to reach 18,000 to 20,000. Though not so high in intensity, extreme flooding was reported from the same Mediterranean storm hit Greece and Turkey. Libya has a dry climate and rarely experiences such heavy rainfall. 

India is highly vulnerable to floods, the Northeast led to around half a million people being affected due to severe flooding after heavy rains battered the region, turning roads into rivers and submerging entire villages. Over 495,000 people spread across 22 districts in Assam have been impacted by floodwaters. 

In fact, the State which has over 31 million people, experienced heavy rains and flooding during the unrelenting monsoon season, April to September. This year’s flooding comes a week after tropical cyclone Biparjoy hit India’s west coast, ripping trees and toppling electricity poles. In contrast, parts of northern India experienced an unrelenting heat wave as temperatures soared in two of the most populous States, Uttar Pradesh and Bihar. 

Dozens of people have died across the States, which saw temperatures reach 47 degrees Celsius over the weekend. July has seen heavy rains lash northern India. Ittriggered flash floods, landslides and evacuations across large parts of the region. Several rivers, including Ravi, Beas, Sutlej, Yamuna and Ganga, have been in spate. Videos of bridges, roads and even houses crumbling under the sheer force of raging waters have gone viral. Even the waters of the Yamuna reached the walls of the Taj Mahal for the first time since 1978 floods. 

In Delhi, an overflowing Yamuna breached the “high flood level” mark on July 12 for the first time in 45 years, according to the Central Water Commission. Waters rose to 208.57 metres as on July 13 -- the highest mark ever. Several parts of the city were inundated. Schools, colleges, and non-essential government and private offices were shut down. 

Scientifically it is found that the unusually curled up monsoon this year caused by early season cyclone and typhoons conspired with the warm Arabian Sea to funnel in atmospheric rivers to the Himalayan foothills. While the Arabian Sea warming is attributable to global warming, the rest of the monsoon trough evolution is simply natural variability in a warmer world. The Arabian Sea warming is driving the growing extremes over north-western India. Other studies show cyclones over Arabian Sea are increasing and sea levels are rising around Indian coasts. 

On the question of mitigation of floods and droughts, India has launched many policies and programmes to improve water security and build climate resilience -- several with World Bank support. This includes advances in technologies such as flood forecasting models, hydromet services and early warning systems, greater dam safety, and a national plan for disaster management. Even so, these measures, although laudable, have not been able to address the scale of India’s water woes. 

Experts believe that floods and droughts don’t need to become disasters and it depends on how society and local self-government manages these climatic extremes. While governments tend to deal with these in a slipshod manner, what is needed is a paradigm shift in the way these events are managed altogether. It is a complex problem that requires a multi-sectoral approach to reduce the risks and impacts. Given the urgency of staying ahead of the changing climate, the World Bank, with support from Deltares, a Netherlands-based research institute, has put forward a new perspective to better manage these risks -- the EPIC Response framework (Enable, Plan, Invest, Control). 

At a recent workshop of the World Bank with States such as Assam, Bihar, Karnataka, Kerala and Odisha, it was pointed they face many common challenges though they have different climatic, economic, and social conditions. In Karnataka, for instance, around 20,000 water bodies have dried up and, in many districts, groundwater is depleting by the day. In Assam, on the other hand, where the mighty Brahmaputra flows, floods, riverbank erosion, and encroachment of riverine areas are the major challenges. In Bihar, too, where many rivers flow down from the mountains of Nepal carrying large sediment loads, more than 70% of the land is flood prone. What’s more, 28 out of Bihar’s 38 districts are affected by either floods or droughts, and sometimes by both every year. 

The newly developed EPIC response framework by the Bank was presented at the workshop which has been designed to better manage these climate extremes. It emphasises that floods and droughts be addressed as different ends of the same spectrum, and the whole of society be involved in the response, including government, private sector, local government, academia, and civil society. 

The Framework is now being piloted in India’s flood-prone state of Assam, along with a new tool that enables various agencies to assess the status of their flood and drought protection programs, identify where collaboration can be enhanced, and track progress over time. It enables various agencies to assess the status of their hydro-climatic risk management systems, identify areas where programme components can be strengthened, ascertain where collaboration can be enhanced, and track progress over time. The results can facilitate a policy dialogue to generate a common understanding of their programs’ status, as well as the challenges and opportunities for enhancing flood and drought risk management systems. 

More than any natural disaster, it’s a well-known fact that floods and cyclones cause the greatest loss, and the poorer and weaker sections are greatly affected. Even the IPCC suggested that increasing storm events and floods will frequently occur and the urban poor will be the most affected community. This is known to all planners and government officials but even then,tackling them before the occurrence of floods, which has become quite a frequent phenomenon, has not been undertaken in an organised manner. Obviously, the segment of population affected does not have a loud voice and there is nobody to take up their cause in right earnest. 

It is quite unfortunate that in such a situation, climate-resilient structural and non-structural solutions for effective water governance have not taken place despite lot of talk by political leaders and technocrats. It remains to be seen how long floods would continue to cause huge loss lives and property and when the government would seriously tackle this national disaster.---INFA 

(Copyright, India News & Feature Alliance)