Economic Highlights
New Delhi, 9 October 2023
RBI Subprime Alert
PERSONAL LOANS, DEFAULTS RISE!
By Shivaji Sarkar
What would sway Indian politics --the Reserve Bank of
India’s monetary policy or caste census? Normally it should be the RBI moves, but
elections may be guided more by the caste factor as people forget that for
decades castes have been denoting socio-economic status, aspirations rather than
wry warnings of one who observes the economy from close quarters.
The RBI has come out with certain facts that may not be
palatable to the overall economic conditions, including a veiled subprime alert
as personal loans and defaults rise. It held back repo rates at 6.5 percent
amid continuous rises in prices. The bank indicates holding of rates till the
general elections. In other words, it candidly says that there is little
opportunity to cut the rates. This means the cost would continue to be more for
the borrowers, whether individual or corporate.
Do Bihar caste census figures matter in such a scenario?
Inflation at 6.83 percent as per August 2023 figures less than the highest of
7.44 percent in July is beyond the RBI toleration limit of 6 percent. But
hawkish RBI is targeting for 4 percent. It is good news if the target is
achieved but if not, post elections rates could spiral. The 112 extreme
backward castes and other economically weaker classes, who are covered by the
Ujjwala gas schemes may feel happy that the government has reduced the LPG
cylinder prices by Rs 300.
Correspondingly, the price of commercial cylinders has been
raised by Rs 300. It is a cross subsidy. The gas companies lose nothing but
cost of production on a number of items to goes up. It will jack up the prices
and overall cost of living. The subsidy on the gas would be substituted by
higher realisations from the market. Technically it may keep oil companies’
coffers balanced but the market costs can upset the RBI’s calculations. It can
make markets tizzy as RBI’s future inflation projection at 5.2 percent may be
off the mark.
The reaction of the weaker sections may not be easy to
predict. Happiness and hardship quotients are not equally balanced. In such
situations they may take decisions as per caste conglomerations, which is
difficult to predict politically. It can stoke many speculations and make the
work of psephologists difficult.
Though the RBI moves still may not be exactly on the poll
plank, but these may ultimately impact the course. However, the cushion
RBI has provided edges out to almost eight months, far beyond the five State
elections that are to close in December. Next monetary policy moves may be more
critical.
The situation is contrary to the United States. The Federal
Reserve has been firming up rates. Another rise may be in the offing as the US
jobs swelled, unemployment rate comes down to 3.8 percent and wages rose at a
modest rate. It is not a good indicator for the Indian economy. Each US rate
surge sees flight of capital from the rest of the world. This means investments
elsewhere would plummet. India needs to feel concerned.
The RBI finds that already its government bonds, G-Sec, security
sales are in over supply and the 10-year-bonds get low returns. The central
bank says it is limiting operations to manage liquidity and not yield.
Practically, the yield differential between the US and G-Secs have fallen to
low levels. This could have a negative impact on the strength of the
rupee-dollar exchange rate. It is already at a low of Rs 83.25 to the dollar.
The bank’s open market operation (OMO) bond prices are falling even as US
20-year bonds are firming. Managing the currency rates itself is becoming
tough.
The housing sector has seen hopes in rate hold and that
more units could be sold. That is not a solace for RBI Governor Shaktikant Das.
He is concerned over “certain components of personal loans recording very high
growth. These are being closely monitored for signs of incipient stress”.
On annual basis personal loans contributed 37.7 percent
incremental bank credit in August 2023, according to the Monetary Policy
Committee (MPC) report or over Rs 40 lakh crore against Rs 33 lakh crore in
2022 and Rs 29 lakh crore in 2021. Within these loans during August, credit
card loans had shown a growth of 30 percent, vehicle loans 21percent and
housing loans 14 percent.
Retail loans in the Indian banking sector grew at a
compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 24.8 percent between March 2021 and
March 2023, the RBI said in its Financial Stability Report in June. It far
outstripped the 13.8 percent CAGR of banks’ gross advances and the retail
segment accounted for one-third of the gross loans in the banking system.
The share of unsecured retail loans grew to 25.2 percent
from 22.9 percent in March 2021-2023, while secured loans eased from 77.1
percent to 74.8 percent, the data showed. Banks’ unsecured loan portfolio
amounted to close to Rs 12 lakh crore as of end July. In an August 29 report,
Nomura Global Market Research’s analysts say that while most lead indicators do
not flag imminent risks for banks, the regulator’s “repeated warnings” on
unabated growth in the segment as well as concerns on rising consumer leverage
have sparked investor concerns. The RBI goes by the world experience of
2007-08 sub-prime meltdown. However, Das has not said a word about a
possibility of repeat of a meltdown.
A trend in higher default in this segment is
noticed. The number of unsecured loans payment defaulters in India, on the
other hand, has increased to 32.9 percent in the personal loans segment as of
April 21, 2023, compared with 31.4 percent from a year ago.
Banks report 16044 borrowers with total debt of Rs 346,479
crore. The amount stuck in the wilful default category has jumped by 41
per cent, or over Rs 1 lakh crore in the last two years from Rs 245,767 crore
in December 2020, according to data compiled by Transunion Cibil.
There is speculation that the caste census would lead to
rise in demand for loan waivers. But the microfinance industry says that their
borrowers know that debt waiver announcements would not add to default and
escalation in credit cost. The only way to have done it is politically-- by
state or other governments. Rates are to hold till May 2024, but the rising
personal debts and defaults are ominous signs that nudge the RBI.---INFA
(Copyright, India News & Feature
Alliance)
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