Open Forum

New Delhi, 24 April 2008

Nuclear Deal

WHY IS IT STILL CRUCIAL?

By T.D. Jagadesan

Homi Jehangir Bhabha, a great advocate of civil nuclear energy who envisioned that abundant availability of nuclear energy--both fission and fusion together--would serve to eliminate poverty, was acutely aware that India was short of uranium and had plentiful thorium. Therefore, even at an early stage he formulated the three-stage nuclear energy plan--heavy water natural uranium reactor at the first stage, fast breeder at the second and thorium-bred uranium 233 reactor at the third stage. He further hoped that fusion energy would be tapped in about 50 years’ time. Therefore, uranium shortage in India should not come as a surprise to those interested in the country’s advance in nuclear energy programme.

According to M.R. Srinivasan, nuclear reactor engineer and former Chairman, Department of Atomic Energy, (DAE) India has only about 1,00,000 tonnes of uranium on the ground and this will be sufficient to support 10,000 MW heavy water-natural uranium reactors for their lifetime. While, some complacency on the part of the DAE in the early 90s may have led to the serious uranium crunch our reactors face now, he rightly highlighted that there is a long-term Uranium shortage if our nuclear power programme has to go beyond 10,000 M.W. He has also pointed out that without at least 50,000 MW reactors producing plutonium the country cannot have a viable thorium-bred uranium-233 programme.

This situation was fully known to the NDA government. When it initiated the Next Steps in Strategic Partnership (NSSP) negotiation, it was ready to put under safeguards two of the then operating reactors and full future reactors. Since at that time only 10 reactors were under operation (four more came on stream between 2004 and 2006), the NDA government felt that eight reactors, not under safeguards, would be adequate to sustain our strategic programme. The present separation plan is more or less the same.

Presumably because the then Natural Security Advisor, Brajesh Mishra, was fully aware of our uranium crunch situation and the magnitude of our strategic requirements, he has come out in favour of India going ahead with the 123 agreement with the US and thus saving the future of our nuclear energy programme.

Srinivasan was among the nuclear scientists who signed a letter to Parliament specifying the conditions that needed to be fulfilled before the Indo-US nuclear deal could be considered as acceptable by the scientific community. After the finalization of the 123 draft, he, Secretary, DAE and Chairman Atomic Energy Commission Anil Kakodkar and others have come out in favour of India going ahead with the Indo-US nuclear agreement. Now, he is sounding an alert about the risks to India’s nuclear future if the Indo-US agreement is not signed.

The data published by the Nuclear Power Corporation has made it clear that all our reactors are operating at 50 per cent capacity and according to Srinivasan they will continue to operate at that low capacity for the next five years, unless India is able to sign the 123 agreement and import uranium. This situation poses a challenge to the opponents of the 123 agreement other than the Left, which is in any case against our strategic progarmme and not enthusiastic about civil nuclear energy for India.

What about those who took pride in the fact that they made India a nuclear weapon power? Do they want to wind up the Indian nuclear weapons and civil progamme? It is well-known that the decision to conduct a nuclear test, formulation of a nuclear command and control arrangements and the entire nuclear policy had to be kept highly classified and only a few top leaders of the BJP were fully acquainted with it. The former NSA has come out in favour of the treaty Former Prime Minister, Atal Behari Vajpayee, while not responding to Manmohan Singh’s appeal for support, has not come out against it. In these circumstances, to whom will the NDA’s prime ministerial candidate L.K. Advani, turn to for sound advice?

He can consult Brajesh Mishra or talk to Kakodkar, Srinivasan and Finance Minister P. Chidambaram or retired service chiefs and retired foreign secretaries. The issue is too serious for the party, which rightfully claims to have made India a nuclear weapon power to depend upon those who are less than well-informed on the issue.

The situation portrayed by Srinivasan is known all over the world. Therefore, if India misses out on the present opportunity it is not likely to get as good a deal for quite some time to come. While as the leader of the party which established India as a nuclear weapon state Advani has his responsibilities cut out to support the deal. The Prime Minister too has a responsibility to summon leaders across the political spectrum, including the NDA and nuclear scientists and explain the consequences of not going ahead with the 123 agreement.

There will be people who would like to ask why this situation was not brought to the notice of the people and Parliament earlier. The reason is quite obvious. While negotiating an agreement one does not want to disclose the weakness of one’s hand. The question facing the NDA leadership is clear: Will it be the party that established India as a global nuclear weapon power or will it go down in history as the party which contributed to India’s nuclear power programme winding up? ----INFA

 (Copyright, India News and Feature Alliance)