Events & Issues
New Delhi, 4 August 2023
Intense Heat
RECORD HOTTEST JULY!
By Dr Oishee Mukherjee
Heat temperature has emerged as the
invisible engine of planetary chaos according to a recent book titled ‘The
Heat Will Kill You First: Life & Death on a Scorched Planet’ by Jeff
Goodell. The temperature climbed to 40 degrees in London, 47 in British
Colombia, 50 degrees in Phoenix and, of course, over 45 degrees in India. But
what is more astonishing is that reports had indicated that July will be the
hottest month ever recorded and may even be the hottest month in 120,000 years
with the average temperature about 1.5 degrees Celsius hotter than before the
planet got warmed by burning coal, oil and gas, as per a study by climate scientist,
Karsten Hausten.
Working at Leipzig University in
Germany, Haustein’s analysis corroborates the death knell sounded by other
scientists who had warned that July was likely to be the hottest month on
record. According to the analysis, the global average of near surface
temperature in July exceeded the previous warmest record for the month by a
considerable margin.
Meanwhile, Skymet Weather’s Vice-President
(meteorology & climate change), Mahesh Palawat pointed out that there is a
link between rising temperatures and India’s heavy monsoon. “Warming of oceans
has led to increased incursion of moisture in the atmosphere over India. This
has increased the capacity of air to hold more moisture, leading to extremely
heavy rainfall”, he observed.
Temperatures in Europe have been
recorded at 450C in parts of Greece, Spain and Italy. Headlines have
come up about Europe’s traditional vacation hotspots being affected. This
year’s extreme events in Europe bear doleful and evocative monikers. The best
way to mitigate the effects of the new normal would be adopting old methods of
beating the heat. European building design needs urgent adaptation to keep the
heat out in the summer. Dietary habits need to be season specific with cooling
and hydrating fluids and foods for summer rather than beery beverages and red
meat.
Reports from the US stated that
nearly 200 million or 60 percent of the population are under a heat advisory.
The National Weather Service said a ‘dangerous’ heatwave began to scorch the
Northeast and mid-Atlantic and will continue till the end July. This world-wide
trend is something that has never been witnessed.
As regards India is concerned,
Calcutta and Delhi are among the top 10 cities worldwide with the largest
population exposures to heat and humidity, according to research findings (way
back in October 2021) that flagged different drivers of exposure for the two
cities. The study estimated that population growth contributed to 74 percent of
Delhi’s increase in exposure but only 48 percent in Calcutta.
Scientists of Columbia University,
the US, who analysed population and temperature changes in over 13,000 cities
world-wide estimated that the count of person-days during which city residents
were exposed to extreme heat and humidity nearly tripled from 40 million in
1983 to 119 million by 2016 and must have crossed 135 million by end of 2022.
They defined extreme heat and humidity as any temperature above 30 degrees C on
the so-called “wet bulb globe temperature” scale that combines the effect of
heat and humidity on human physiology or equivalent to about 41 degrees C.
The increased heat has a severe
effect on human beings, mainly on declining food productivity. For every degree
of increase in temperature, corn yields drop by 7 percent, wheat by 6 percent
and rice by over 3 percent at a time when population has been increasing. Too
much heat causes plants to ‘sweat’ and lose water, changing the season of their
blooming, putting them out of sync with pollinators. Moreover, heat makes plants
more vulnerable to diseases and fungi. Animals are even more harmed by heat
exposure. 30 million people live in extreme heat today but by the year 2070,
that number is likely to be two billion.
Though the world is decarbonising
much faster than expected and clean energy and fossil fuels are costing more or
less the same, climatologists are still apprehensive about the looming
environmental crisis. There is need at this juncture cities have to be built to
counter extreme heat, buildings retrofitted so that they do not need artificial
cooling. The challenge to global warming has to be met through a variety of
measures.
Obviously global warming has
generated a lot of anguish among experts as the collective pledges may decrease
the emission only by around 12 percent by 2030. In the synthesis report on
nationally determined contributions (NDCs), the UN Framework Convention on
Climate Change (UNFCC) observed: “The total global GHG emission level in 2030,
taking into account implementation of all the NDCs, is expected to be 16.3
percent above the 2010 level”. As is well known, the NDCs are national climate
pledges in which countries communicate the action that they plan to take to
address climate change.
Ideally, global net anthropogenic CO2
emissions need to decline by about 45 percent from the 2010 level by about 2030
and reach net zero around 2050 to limit the warming by 1.50C.
Similarly for limiting warming to around 20C, the emissions need to
decrease by around 25 percent by 2030, which also does not appear to be
realistic.
It is quite evident that the world
is falling far short of the target needed to avoid the worst climate outcomes.
This trend is unlikely to be reversed in the coming years but even the minimum
requirement to check the ravishing heat from not increasing is not being
seriously adhered to by many nations and India is no exception.
The attitude of the human individual
towards nature, environment and natural resources has been that of wanton
exploitation. Available figures are quite startling as one crore forests are
destroyed every year by cutting and burning them, resulting in huge loss of
biodiversity due to deforestation. A huge area of cultivable land has become
barren. About 75 percent of the land and 66 percent of the marine environment
has changed.
Meanwhile, according to a recent
report, 40 percent of amphibians and 33 percent of aquatic mammals have become
extinct or are about to become extinct. The dryness in the atmosphere has
increased; there has been a huge and very harmful increase in global warming.
Added to this, glaciers are melting continuously and rapidly causing an
alarming rise in sea levels.
Thus, the stand-off between
environment and development is unravelling its ugly side as large-scale
deforestation, unsustainable and rampant mining, exploitation of nature in
various ways and other such activities have been playing havoc with human life.
It is indeed naive to suggest that renewable energy would solve the problem.
There are many others that need to be adopted which possibly most nations do
not want to do. Moreover, Third World countries like India, which are in the
midst of rapid development, are not ready to follow stricter environmental
norms.
What then is going to happen in the
coming years is nobody’s guess. But warming will increase in the coming years,
specially in the tropical countries, including India, and the poor and
impoverished sections will be greatly affected in various ways. Pragmatists
have rightly pointed out that interventions are far less than called for and
nothing much can be done.---INFA
(Copyright, India News & Feature
Alliance)
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