Open Forum

New Delhi, 19 July 2023

Erratic Rainfall, Floods

CLIMATE CHANGE WARNING CRITICAL

By Dhurjati Mukherjee 

Climate change has been identified by climatologists behind the recent heavy rainfall across northwest India.  The role of climate change in the increasing extreme weather events in India has been strengthening.The ongoing spell of extremely heavy rains as witnessed in Himachal Pradesh, Punjab, parts of Rajasthan, Uttarakhand and UP is due to the alignment of three weather systems -- western disturbance over western Himalayas, cyclonic circulation over north-western plains, and axis of monsoon trough running across Indo-Gangetic plains. 

Northwest India is normally the driest of the country’s four regions. But this season it is the region that has received the maximum rainfall with a surplus of around 65 percent. However, for the entire country since June the rainfall has been deficient by around 40 percent. Experts feel that the reason for northwest India receiving higher rainfall is due to the cyclone ‘Biparjoy’. The second reason is the recent confluence of two system confluence, the interaction between western disturbance and monsoon circulation that impacted this region. This is also indicative of climate change as this region does not get much rain in June and July. 

However, more than a third of India’s land area has received below normal rainfall since the start of the monsoon season with 271 districts across the country reporting deficit in cumulative rain despite excessive rainfall in 134 other districts. Weather scientists had documented deficits across 42 percent of the land area, which includes eastern and southern parts of the country, attributing the absence of low pressure in the Bay of Bengal with West Bengal, Bihar, Jharkhand and Odisha among the States impacted by low pressure systems though there are other 7 other States – some in the North-East -- that have received cumulative rain deficits from 22 percent to 44 percent below their expected average. 

Delving deep into the matter, one has to agree that global warming-led changes in monsoon patterns have made a difference. There has been a constant rise in both land and sea temperatures, which has increased the capacity of the air to hold moisture for a longer time. Thus, the role of climate change in the increasing extreme weather events in India has been strengthening with each passing year, experts have rightly pointed out. 

Firstly, El Nino has taken shape, which is amplifying global temperatures. Secondly, wildfires have been in three times larger areas, releasing three times of carbon into the atmosphere, and increasing greenhouse gases. Thirdly, the North Atlantic is in a warmer phase while the Arabian Sea has warmed unexceptionally since January, infusing more moisture over north-northwest India. And lastly, the upper-level circulation pattern is also unusual, which forces local surface circulations, bringing rains like the one we are witnessing across north and central India. Several reports and research have already established the impact of climate change on Indian monsoon patterns. However, “it has also been tampering with atmospheric as well oceanic phenomena, which has further multiplied the implications of global warming,” according to a paper compiled by Climate Trends.  

One may mention here that a study by Germany’s Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research had pointed out: “For every degree Celsius of warming, monsoon rains will likely increase by about 5 per cent. Global warming is increasing the monsoon rainfall in India even more than previously thought”. In fact, climate change is making the Indian monsoon seasons more chaotic and unpredictable. 

Further the study stated that this has been dominating the monsoon dynamics of the 21st century. Climate change is leading to unpredictable weather extremes and their serious consequences are affecting the people, mostly from the lower echelons of society. “What is really on the line is the socio-economic well-being of the Indian subcontinent. A more chaotic monsoon season poses a threat to agriculture and economy in the region and should be a wake-up call for policymakers to drastically cut greenhouse gas emissions worldwide,” the study warned. 

While such extreme events continue to occur, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) in its fifth Assessment Report (AR) cycle concluded that human influence on the climate system is “clear”. Since AR5, there has also been an increased focus on regional impacts, with scientists improving their models and understanding of what global climate change impacts will look like on a regional scale. 

With various studies predicting more extremely wet years, the threat looms large over people's well-being, economy, agriculture, and food system. These extreme weather events are not only confined to India but in parts of Europe and China as well. “It is no longer a developing country’s problem alone, but it is now hitting the industrialised nations such as Germany, Belgium, and The Netherlands,” Research Director and Adjunct Associate Professor, Bharti Institute of Public Policy, Indian School of Business and lead author of the 6th Assessment report of IPCC, Dr Anjal Prakash observed. 

The Indian subcontinent’s monsoon system has drastically changed due to global warming as is manifest in this year’s flooding. The obvious answer lies in adopting more stringent measures to curb global warming, the most important being curbing deforestation, more emphasis on renewable energy and stopping expansion of thermal power projects, lesser use of air-conditioners as also plastics etc, in development needs to be in consonance with environment concerns.  

Along with this, people who reside in areas which are prone to flooding almost every year, specially in the mountainous terrain and near seas and rivers should be shifted. Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand are prone to floods and constriction activity needs to stop. More than building roads to facilitate people visiting tourist spots or for pilgrimage, the repercussions are more important and environmental concerns have to be strictly adhered to. 

The strategy of development has to be reoriented and the rural sector should be a great priority. The urban bias in Indian planning has to give way to a rural-centric approach with the concept of neighbourhood building given proper emphasis. This would necessitate less water-resistant technologies, whether in power plants or in agriculture as a water crisis is imminent in the coming years. 

It goes without saying that natural disasters have to be prevented, whatever be the cost. India cannot afford to push the lower echelons of society into further misery with floods occurring every year and disrupting their life and incomes. More attention and resources need to be earmarked to counter such emergencies.---INFA 

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