Economic Highlights
New
Delhi, 19 June 2023
Modi’s US Visit
MAY RAISE FUND FLOW
By Shivaji Sarkar
The
stock market is surging ahead of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to the US.
However, would it be able to sustain the level amid series of steps taken by
the US Fed and involvement of Goldman Sachs in SVB (Silicon Valley Bank) crash,
said to be worse since 1930s Great Depression, is a big question.
The
stocks could be led by domestic factors or tumble on the US moves. The
Fed plans two more interest rate raises and the market is predicted to crash
even if it is in a bull phase. The S&P 500 entered a technical bull market last
week, but the sizable rally that led it there may not last for long, according
to Bank of America chief investment strategist, Michael Hartnett. He is
credited to have correctly predicted last year’s (2022) sell-off, warned in a
June 16 analysis that the stock market could resume its downward spiral soon. “We
are not convinced at start of a brand, new shiny bull market,” Hartnett wrote. “Still
feels more like combo of 2000 or 2008, big rally before the big collapse.”
India
has pinned its hopes on the Prime Minister Modi-President Joe Biden summit. At
the recent Hiroshima G7 meet the US President expressed his desire to see Modi
at the dinner in Washington. Removing barriers to technological trade between
India and the US is a key part of Modi’s coming state visit, says the US
National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan. The deal would also mark a win for
Modi’s ambitious “Make in India” plans, while offering Washington an
opportunity to strengthen key supply chains outside of China.
The Indian
industry perceives this as a great opportunity for getting orders from the US companies.
The US only sees it in terms of reducing reliance on China by giving crumbs to
India so that it is placated at a crucial time of the Russia-Ukraine war. Its
India investment hovers around $20 billion a year. New Delhi looks at the
Washington meet to get this raised.
India’s
key deal is likely to be with Micron Technology, which is to commit $1 billion
for a semiconductor packaging factory in India. As earlier told, it will not be
an assembly facility but shall develop as export hub and give a boost to
Micron, which faces ban on its Chinese made chips. India will discuss measures
to deepen economic and trade relations and strengthen partnership in defence,
space and clean energy, besides reinforcing its commitment to a free,
prosperous and secure Indo-Pacific.
The
minor rupee gains by 30 paise is not a great indicator. But turmoil in the US
can send the Indian market on a roll. The 30-share BSE index zoomed 466.95
points to settle at a record closing high of 63,384.58. During the day, it
rallied 602.73 points to 63,520.36 on June 16, 2023. The index scaled its
earlier lifetime high of 63,284.19 on 1 December last year. The NSE Nifty
climbed 137.90 points to end at its lifetime peak of 18,826. Its previous
record peak was 18,812.50. In short, it regains but not a real growth.
The
Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and Federal Reserve are reportedly
seeking documents into Goldman Sachs’ role in purchasing $21 billion of SVB’s
securities portfolio as the hamstrung regional bank was looking to shore up
cash and find a potential buyer, as well as Goldman’s role in allegedly
advising SVB in raising capital, revealed sources. Federal investigators will
also probe whether Goldman’s trading and banking divisions were improperly
communicating, and whether the banking behemoth advised SVB to sell its
portfolio—SVB executives reportedly decided to sell its securities to Goldman
without seeking other buyers, out of fear of market repercussions.
This has
led to credibility loss of rating agencies. The US Financial Industry
Regulatory Authority or Finra, hit Goldman Sachs with a $3 million fine for
mixing up 60 million stock orders between October 2015 and April 2018. The US
corrections might make the foreign portfolio investors move back to the US, as rates
are to be revised over 6 per cent. This could mean once again a loss to the
Nifty and Sensex.
Indians
have lost the maximum jobs in the US as Meta-Facebook, Google, Microsoft and
Dell and other tech companies cut 84000 jobs. It has hit remittances from the
US. Though now the US is again relaxing visa rules, it would be sometime before
it makes up the losses. India receives $111 billion, the highest remittances.
It is estimated that remittances to be around $656 billion due to slowing
economic growth across major sources.
The
stock market rebound remains glued mostly to FPI investments. As they invest,
indices move up and with withdrawals again plunge. The FPI purchases are at Rs
72,670 crore and domestic institutions (DII) bought a mere Rs 3240 crore since
January this year. Thus, the market is lopsided and is susceptible to
uncertainties. The DII are cautious and are making virtual token investments.
This is also an indicator of slow growth of domestic industries, manufacturing
included.
India
has to seek an open access to the US market for its goods, including farm
produces. India exports to the US leather items, medical appliances and
accessories, frozen meat, textiles, gems, machinery and some agricultural
products. The basket needs to be widened. India imports 93 items worth $51.77
billion from the US and exports are worth around $80 billion. How can India have
a preferential market there, would be of interest to watch.
In this
scenario, the surge for gold remains a big issue. If the US Fed make any
changes it boosts the demand for gold. Once that happens, various investments
made in India get affected.
If
Hartnett’s predictions come true, it means the American economy in real terms
is not recovering. Maybe it is soft towards India for this reason. It needs
various strategic and logistic support from India to counter move in Ukraine.
The
global slowdown finds it difficult to make up. Not all its European allies are
happy with the war. This has not helped Ukraine much. But its friends like
India are hit in more than one way. Indian petroleum companies find their
earnings locked up due to blockade of banking network SWIFT.
While
Modi visit is significant, the gains would be moderate for now. Once the war
comes to an end, the relationships could benefit both countries. That may not
be soon.---INFA
(Copyright, India News & Feature Alliance)
|