Events & Issues
New Delhi, 17 June 2023
Opposition Unity Plans
BJP IS NOT INVINCIBLE
By Sagarneel Sinha
Less
than a year is left for the Lok Sabha elections and the Opposition parties have
started working out efforts to defeat the BJP juggernaut led by Prime Minister
Narendra Modi. After few hiccups and initial cancellations, the meeting of the
Opposition is scheduled on June 23 at Patna where the top leaders of the
parties are to attend. So far, the likely attendees at the meeting called by
Bihar Chief Minister and JD(U) supremo Nitish Kumar include Congress party’s
face Rahul Gandhi and its President Mallikarjun Kharge, TMC supremo and West
Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee, DMK President and Tamil Nadu Chief Minister
MK Stalin, AAP Convenor and Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal, Jharkhand Chief
Minister and JMM leader Hemant Soren, Samajwadi Party President Akhilesh Yadav,
Shiv Sena (UBT) President Uddhav Thackeray, CPM General Secretary Sitaram
Yechury and his CPI counterpart D Raja.
After
the defeat of the BJP in the Karnataka Assembly elections last month, despite a
strong campaign led by Modi himself, the Opposition parties have realised that
the battle for 2024 isn’t over and the saffron party is not invincible.
Obviously, the Opposition isn’t wrong to think so, but it shouldn’t forget that
the first priority for them is to unite completely without ifs and buts. Is
this possible?
If the
Opposition has to defeat the BJP, there has to be a propercoordination among
them and importantly the contest has to be reduced into one-on-one fight vs.
BJP. This strategy has already been put forward by some Opposition leaders such
as Mamata and Nitish. Accordingly, the dominant party in the respective State
would fight against the BJP to reduce the fight into a bipolar contest in order
to lessen any chances of division of anti-BJP votes. This strategy, if
implemented, is likely to put the saffron party in a difficult position in many
States.
As seen
recently in the Karnataka polls, the collapse of the former prime minister HD
Devegowda’s JD(S) dashed the then incumbent BJP’s hopes of division of anti-BJP
votes and as a result, Congress won in the southern State with a comfortable
majority. Importantly, BJP’s vote share almost remained the same as it got in
the 2018 elections, but it was the shift of the votes of the JD(S) that made
the big difference. This was completely in contrast to what happened in Tripura
Assembly polls early this year where the royal scion Pradyot Debbarma’s TIPRA
Motha cut into anti-BJP votes harming the prospects of the Left-Congress
alliance and ultimately helping the BJP to return to power for the second time
in the north-eastern State.
But the
main problem is that some parties are unlikely to follow this model properly.
Take the case of Congress. If this one-on-one strategy vs. BJP is implemented,
the grand old party has to let go many seats. It has todo so in states like
Uttar Pradesh, barring seats like Amethi and Rai Bareilly. Will it be possible
for the party? Will the state Congress leaders accept this? Let’s not forget
that even the grand old party itself still believes that it continues to be the
only national party other than the BJP and it should be leading the fight. Moreso,
after Karnataka’s big win. Both party headquarters and more particularly state
Congress leaders are now having high hopes and are in a mood to go for a hard
bargain with the other Opposition parties.
However,
parties like the TMC and AAP are averse to any Congress dominance. This appears
to be the case as both Mamata and Kejriwal give the clear impression of eyeing
the Prime Ministerial post. Although TMC’s attempts to grow its base outside
Bengal have failed and it suffered a setback after the Election Commission recently
withdrew its national party status, the AAP in contrast has national dreams as
it got a boost having acquired that status.
The AAP
has been targeting the Congress voters in the Hindi belt and it’s the main
rival in Punjab, where it came to power defeating the grand old party last
year. On the other hand, Congress is in partnership with TMC’s arch-rival CPM
in Bengal — and the state President Adhir Choudhury, who is also the leader of
the party in the Lok Sabha, is a harshest critic of Mamata. The Left after
being reduced to zero in the 2021 State Assembly elections has been gaining
strength and has been strategically targeting both TMC and BJP. So, the model
of one-on-one strategy vs. BJP is unlikely to be implemented in Bengal too.
Similarly in Kerala, where CPM and Congress are traditional rivals, there is
zero possibility of implementation of this strategy against the BJP. Same goes
for Telangana where the Congress will challenge the ruling BRS of Chief Minister
K Chandrashekar Rao.
Therefore,
it is unlikely to be a full-fledged anti-BJP alliance in some States. This will
only strengthen the perception that the Opposition is divided but united to
only defeat the BJP without any alternative vision. Such an image is unlikely
to sway the voters in favour of the Opposition. It also knows this reality as
it’s impossible for them to unite in some States — and that’s the reason it is
opting for a Common Minimum Programme.
According
to reports, veteran Opposition leader and NCP chief Sharad Pawar is likely to
prepare its draft -- a very good strategy by the Opposition so that there
exists a platform to address the concerns and differences of the parties
amiably. Although one-on-one fight vs. BJP is unavoidable in some states, a
better coordination, as much as possible, among the Opposition parties is
likely to reduce the existing friction among some Opposition parties at the
state level. Even this remains a big dream for the conflicting Opposition
parties to achieve.
Even if
better coordination happens among the Opposition, this won’t be enough to
defeat the BJP. Elections are not just about arithmetic’s. It is also about
chemistry. But it seems that the Opposition is mostly working on arithmetic’s
forgetting the fact that in the last Lok Sabha elections, BJP along with its
small allies secured more than 50% votes in UP, Madhya Pradesh, Himachal
Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Rajasthan, Karnataka, Chhattisgarh, Gujarat, Arunachal
Pradesh, Jharkhand, Haryana and Delhi — and all these States together have 241
seats in the Lok Sabha.
Alliances
or seat adjustments is likely to only reduce the division of anti-BJP votes but
until and unless the Opposition is able to dent the BJP’s base, which remains
strong in the Hindi belt, it won’t be able to defeat the saffron party. And for
that to happen, it should have an alternate vision to draw voters towards
it. Only airing anti-BJP or anti-Modi views and focussing on arithmetic’s isn’t
going to help the Opposition much because the voters look for a government,
which is efficient on delivery and importantly stable. ---INFA
(Copyright, India News & Feature Alliance)
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