Round The World

New Delhi, 22 April 2008

Winds of Change in Nepal

PUT PAST MISTRUST BEHIND

By Monish Tourangbam

(School of International Studies, JNU)

New power equations have developed in Nepal as a result of the recent Constituent Assembly elections. The erstwhile revisionists have entered the corridors of power, driven by a promise of change: to make the monarchy history and build a democratic republic.

The people of Nepal have spoken with their votes. The Communist Party of Nepal (the Maoists) has finally become mainstream in Nepali politics with an unprecedented mandate, with their leader Prachanda, declaring that he himself would lead the new government of the republic of Nepal. This in fact, has caught much of the international community including India unawares.

Till recently, the Indian establishment had felt that the Maoists would win a significant number of seats but it had not expected them to emerge as the largest political group. The US assessment too seemed to be on similar lines. No wonder, the Bush administration made no attempt to get the Maoists off the State Department's list of "terrorist groups".

But steadily, India has woken up to the reality and the statements coming from New Delhi seem to be geared towards the formulation of a new strategy to make sense of the winds of change in Nepal.

Though caught unprepared by the surge of the Maoists in Nepal, there is no way out but for India to gather its thoughts to build a coherent response to the emerging developments taking place within its neighbour, that forms an inevitable part of its strategic and its larger foreign policy calculations.

No doubt, New Delhi would be assured by the fact that a government if formed has to be a coalition, as per the conditions of the interim constitution. The Maoist leader Prachanda has been publicly appreciative of a coalition, but diplomatic sources point at radical voices in the party who are suspicious of a coalition government.

The Union government’s view has centred on pronouncing the importance of the Nepali Congress (NC) and the Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist-Leninist), even though as minor partners. New Delhi has tried to put forward the view that it is a natural decision which even the Maoists, would have taken if the situation had been reversed.

Apart from drafting a new constitution, the new government’s main task would be to work on the country’s economic development, which has taken a backseat as politics has held sway. Nepali economy is in shambles: fuel shortages routinely paralyze the country, while more than a third of the population lives below the poverty line. The country’s pitiful growth rate hovers barely over two per cent as unprecedented numbers of Nepalese are quitting the country for jobs in the Gulf, India and Southeast Asia. An estimated 10,000 women who leave each year, end up as sex workers in Indian brothels, and the numbers are now skyrocketing.

The uplifting of Nepali economy is an area where India believes it can make the most difference, something on which it feels even the Maoists understands India’s importance.

With the unprecedented mandate achieved by a communist party in Nepal, the China factor would be quite prominent in the minds of the Indian establishment. China will be India’s natural competitor for the new government’s heart and mind. But for the time being, Beijing is being given a profuse sweating by Tibetan forces around the world, and its immediate interest will be in the new government’s intentions of keeping the Tibetans in Nepal under control before the Olympics.

But, it is no time to relax and take China for granted. It would be naive to believe that China would be kept in a limbo by the Tibetan activism and turn a blind eye to the developments in Nepal.

The election results are significant not just for Nepal, but also for the whole of South Asia. It has been a highly observed election, both nationally and internationally, in which nearly 65 per cent of the nation's voting population had exercised its franchise. The electoral process has largely succeeded, amidst international apprehensions, and reports of at least 60 being killed in the run-up to the elections.

The victory of the Maoists, who want Nepal to be a republic, has practically sealed the fate of the discredited monarchy in Kathmandu. In theory, the formation of the 601-member Constituent Assembly means the ultimate abolition of the monarchy. Moreover, fresh reports say that Prachanda is planning to meet King Gyanendra and pressure him to abdicate before the final abolition. But many suspect that the institution, which has defined the Nepalese state for centuries, will simply vanish.

It is definite that New Delhi’s relations with Kathmandu will change but as things appear now, it would hopefully not change for the worse. The Maoists have sounded appreciative of India’s implicit stand on their struggle of a republic in Nepal. Prachanda has said that his country would maintain "equal distance" from its two giant neighbours India and China but that good relations with New Delhi were "important".

On New Delhi’s part of reaching out to the new leadership in Nepal, External Affairs Minister Pranab Mukherjee has called up Maoist leader Prachanda to congratulate him on the electoral victory and assured India's cooperation. Mukherjee also called up another leader of the Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist) Baburam Battarai, who is tipped to be the Prime Minister.

The telephone calls came in the midst of India's preparedness to work with a Nepal government headed by Maoists, who till recently were involved in a decade-long insurgency and had been banned by New Delhi. India's Ambassador to Nepal Shiv Shanker Mukherjee was already in touch with Prachanda and Bhattarai. The ambassador in an interview said, “We will go by the wishes of the people of Nepal and accept their mandate. India will actively work with whichever party forms the government in Nepal”.

But, various challenges remain ahead for New Delhi as well as Kathmandu. India's unease with the Maoists stems not only from its track record of leading a violent and prolonged armed insurrection in Nepal for nearly 12 years but also from their insistence on reviewing all existing treaties that previous Nepalese governments have had with other countries.

Prachanda has vowed to renegotiate the 1950 Indo-Nepal Treaty that he considers to be lopsided in India’s favour. But, we need to wait and see the kind of policy statements that come out of Nepal once the Maoists are practically in the helm of power. Power has an uncanny way of bringing in the “incremental element” into the “revolutionary spirit”. Moreover, India’s ambassador to Nepal, countering the Maoist argument said, “The demand for a review of the Indo-Nepal treaty of 1950 had been raised even in the past. But since the Nepalese leaders realize that Nepal benefits more from the treaty than India, the demand to review was never seriously pursued”.

Though the Maoists remain unknown customers as far as inter-governmental interactions are concerned, New Delhi has to be optimistic in the face of imminent realities. India needs to look forward to the new opportunities and new areas of co-operation, leaving aside past mistrust and mutual suspicions with the former guerillas.--- INFA

(Copyright, India News and Feature Alliance)