Round The World
New Delhi, 10 March
2023
India & Ukraine War
ACTIVE NON-ALIGNMENT
By Dr. D.K. Giri
(Prof. International Relations,
JIMMC)
A fresh strategy has gained some currency as a part of new
discourse and practice in international politics. It is being called ANA –
Active Non-Alignment promoted and pursued so far by Latin American countries. India,
as the founder of NAM – Non-Alignment Movement, seven decades ago, is expected
to jump on the bandwagon and perhaps become one of its leading lights. Let us
however, pontificate about the viability of the concept as NAM was dead long
ago. The new concept is pre-fixed by the word ‘active’, which makes it vibrant,
claim its proponents.
Understandably, NAM operated from a position of neutrality,
not participating in the affairs of the world, led or instigated by either of
the blocs, US and NATO on the one hand and Soviet Union and Warsaw Pact on the
other. ANA enjoins its adherents to actively participate in global activities
in a non-partisan manner. That is the moot point. Is it possible to create a
new bloc of countries of the Global South in order to lead the world on some
issues? Is it credible to envisage that it can mediate between the two
competing powers or antagonist blocs? Say, for instance, as it is claimed by
some that the war in Ukraine could be ended by deploying the strategy of ANA
quite unlikely.
Generally, the proposition (ANA) is not supported by any
tangible evidence in the history of international politics, or by the national
political culture or structures. So, before we assess the workability of ANA,
the new incarnation of NAM, let us trace its origin. ANA emerged in 2019 in
Latin America and developed in 2020 in response to the US-China spar for
supremacy. Latin American countries, caught in the middle, were to take a call
on which side to turn. They seemed to have taken a leaf out of NAM and
improvised on it by adding a key word, ‘active’. ANA takes world developments
on a case-by-case basis manifested in a balanced approach.
Thus, Latin American governments could participate in
China-Community of Latin American and Caribbean states in Mexico City, and the
Democracies Summit in Washington D.C. They seem to emulate India, as New Delhi
is a part of Quad with the US as well as BRICS and SCO which include China.
They applaud India for its balanced (Non-Aligned) stand in the Ukraine war. They
believe India could play a pivotal role in brokering peace in Ukraine as China
may. ANA is not passive neutrality but is actively engaging in finding
solutions to world problems. It will be historic if that happens. But it has a
thin probability for the following reasons. And worse, it risks loss of
credibility in being proverbially seen as, “running with the hare and hunting
with the hounds”.
Quite apparently, ANA seeks to represent a ‘third force’ in
international politics which obviously cannot influence the other two forces
fiercely competing for world leadership. In the race for being the numero
uno, one of the two may win or both settle one way or the other to share
the space at the top. The world has always been largely divided into two blocs.
Countries may join or opt out of any of these two groups. But they could not
create a third power centre. History shows clearly the configuration of world
powers into two groups. The First World War was fought between the ‘central
powers’ – Germany, Austria-Hungry, Bulgaria and the Ottoman empire, and the
Allied powers comprising Great Britain, France, Russia, Italy, Romania, Canada,
Japan and the United States.
Likewise, the Second World War brought two groups into the
contest: the Axis powers (Germany, Italy and Japan) and the Allies (France,
Great Britain, the Soviet Union and the United States). In the aftermath of the
Second World War, the Cold War began between USA and its allies, and the Soviet
Union and its satellite states. This phase continued till the break-up of
Soviet Union in 1991. Since then, we have been experiencing a uni-polar world
led by the United States.
The proponents of ANA reckon that the world is on the verge
of a second cold war, this time between US and China. It is not established yet.
The United States and the Soviet Union were engaged in confrontation,
collaboration and negotiation at several fronts. But there have been no
US-China summits on world affairs so far, although there are bilateral
interactions and transactions as all other countries do. Remember, the historic
disarmament talks between US and the Soviet Union, which ironically escalated
the arms race between them and across the world.
Admittedly, the mark of strength of a country has changed
from military to economy. The rivalry in the past between two superpowers was
militarily in nature focussing on security. Now the engagement is economic.
Yet, the US and China as two world powers, between themselves, have not
negotiated the nature and structure of the economy of the world. There is no
single major event in the world which has been influenced only by these two
countries; either US has done it alone or through a multilateral forum.
Secondly, at national level, the political power is shared between
two major political forces (parties) or two coalitions forged by parties. The Communist
political system and autocracies are run by a single party whereas democratic
politics is played out by two parties or two alliances. Democracies are so
structured as to necessitate the constitution of a majority in the
legislatures. So, the ‘third force’ has to go with either of the coalition to
be effective in governance. It could, however, remain a voice of Non-Alignment
without any impact on policy making. The same is the story on international
politics. The third bloc has remained marginal.
Things could change. India could, through ANA, bring an end
to the pathetic and devastating war in Ukraine and restore a rule-based world
order. China could do the same. But it is not Non-Aligned. So, in the current
formulation, China is out. The success of India and ANA could create history
but as the proverbial dictum goes, “the proof of pudding is in the eating”. At
any rate, more power to the new concept! ---INFA
(Copyright, India News & Feature
Alliance)