Economic Highlights
New Delhi, 6 March 2023
BJP For Vote Not Core
ECONOMY OR NOT MODI
CHARMS
By Shivaji Sarkar
The recent elections testify that economy,
ecology and electorate are not on the same page. Inflation, slower growth,
jobs, Himalayan ruinous development from Kashmir to Nagaland, opposition chant
of mis-governance, or even Rs 10 lakh crore loss due to Adani collapse are
given a go by.
Tripura’s two lakh government servants and
voters are happy to have deferred 12 per cent DA rise, shortly before the polls
and forgets excesses. Nagaland votes for hurriedly cooped up January 14
commitment by the BJP government of resolution by NSCN(IM) and Naga National
Political Groups, comprising seven rebel groups, pending since 2015, for the
rights of Nagas. There is hope. Parallel taxation or extortion by so-called
rebels may come to an end.
Despite not making much gain in Meghalaya,
the BJP still emerges as the winner in the northeast as it gives up core “Hindutva
of no beef” for winning tribal and Christian trust. The poll results prove that
the BJP's constant developmental focus on the northeast and shrewd poll
strategy have established it as the dominant party in the region. This is in
contrast to Left-Congress alliance in Tripura engineered against what they
alleged coercive, violent politics against their cadre. It is adaptive
politics!
Performance or lack of it or inability to deliver growth does
not harm the ruling party, neither stupendous debt of Rs 172 lakh crore nor
high debt servicing matter. Indians are used to low Nehruvian Hindu growth of 3
per cent. Vast majority over 60 per cent or 81 crore are satisfied with food
grain doles, that gives them an income of about Rs 15000 a month. Are subsidies
bartered for votes? Good politics at people’s cost.
People forget high GST, toll and petrol road cess, high-cost
economy, slowdown, slowing exports. The RBI concern about stability, increasing
interest rates to check inflation, which in real terms remains unchecked, is
not a poll issue. Stupendously rising wheat prices or low onion prices to
farmers affect none. Are people fatigued with the issues or they might have got
so accustomed to the unresolved phenomenon.
Banking failures or recent losses due to Adani, Nirav Modi or
such collapses do not rattle anyone despite banks’ losses. Bank of Baroda chief
as also bank staff are happy as they get a five-day week as per agreement
between Indian Banks Association and United Forum of Bank Employees. And no one
even refers to the SBI raising $1 billion “landmark” syndicated social loan,
called environment, social and governance loan, in the Asia Pacific market and
its impact.
States bordering China have least concern about increasing
imports to China and abysmal shrinking of exports or increasing Chinese
belligerence. The G20 is giving the country good international exposure but the
visiting dignitaries are promising little. They are discussing more the western
and Russian differences over NATO issues and crib over India’s trade with
Russia. Indian voters even do not discuss that the benefit of cheap oil imports
from Russia being credited to two large private refineries and not to the people
in general. The G20 programmes are matters of glitter.
India has emerged as the largest social welfare state. In
2022-23, the Central government has allocated Rs 2,06.831 crore for food
subsidy out of which Rs 1,45,920 (71 per cent) crore is for providing food
subsidy to FCI. The subsidy has been cut to Rs 197,350 crore or by Rs 89,844
crore in 2023-24. The MNREGA size increases four times since 2004. The demand
grows despite budgetary allocation cut now. The country has 53 million people
as unemployed.
Total subsidies for 2022-23 are Rs 532,447 lakh crore, much
of it goes to corporate. These are neither discussed nor are issues. As per
statistics 8.3 per cent are unemployed. India’s capacity to give its people
work has been in trouble for a long time more so after the planned decline of
the PSUs. Systematic maligning of the efficient PSUs by the private lobby has
caused immense loss to the people. Air India is sold for a song. Now the
government itself is supporting it for a purchase of $80 billion purchases of
400 US Boeing and EU Airbus planes. Corporate intransigence is not part of the political
debate.
The Opposition is so splintered and family and raise core
issues so feebly it goes unheard. The Congress, TMC or anyone is more
interested in projecting themselves as “true Hindu” than projecting an
alternative economy that could charm the people.
The youth are so hit by economic distress that they do not
have the energy to discuss core issues. Politics is more about empowering
themselves and getting personal benefits. The core issues are not anywhere in
discussion, be it the failure of telecom companies or sacking by large IT
companies on one or the other pretext. Recruitment scams are routine. Political
corruptions are accepted. Nobody wants to know how West Bengal’s TMC gets Rs
500 crore donations only next to the BJP.
So manufacturing contracting by 11 per cent in December
2022, third in a year, causing substantial job and wealth loss, remains concern
of experts. Real gross value added manufacturing growth is 0.4 per cent vis a
vis 10 per cent in construction with government’s infra push, says Citibank
chief India economist Samiran Chakravborti.
Nobody even discusses the problem of infra push, fancy
roads, stations, malls with not so high utilisation. Most malls do not have
even 50 per cent occupancy and many large ones have closed down. Restaurants,
hotel, travel and tourism remain in crisis as people do not have extra money to
spend.
The NSO assumption of 7 per cent GDP growth implies far
lower growth if December 2022 figures are any indication. Nomura economist
Aurodeep Nandi and Sonal Varma say global financial conditions can impair
growth drivers – exports, investment, and discretionary consumption and check
growth to 5.3 per cent in 2023-24.
Indian society feels the pinch. But an Economic Times
March 2022 survey sums up and is valid after a year. It predicted Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s secure position and winnings
at the hustings. “Unlike voters in many countries of the world, India is among
top populations who believe the country is headed in the right direction. A
whopping 77 per cent of those surveyed in India felt positive about the
country, second only to Saudi Arabia, a monarchy. In the US and Britain, the
majority feel the countries are headed in the wrong direction”.---INFA
(Copyright, India
News & Feature Alliance)
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