Economic Highlights
New Delhi, 27 February 2023
Rs 76 Tr States’ Debt
DISCOMS DUMP HEAVY LOSSES
By Shivaji Sarkar
The Reserve Bank of India has red flagged states’ debt touching
critical high of Rs 76.10 tr (trillion) and classified debt liabilities of five
states - Bihar, Kerala, Punjab, Rajasthan, and West Bengal – which is no longer
sustainable. The Northeast states have the lowest. Ten states are the worst
defaulters. The state debt in 2013 was Rs 22.44 trillion (tr). This is in
addition to Rs 155.77 tr central debt as on 31 March 2023, and is expected to
go up to Rs 172.5 tr on 31 March 2024.
The RBI has called for deep introspection and immediate
corrective steps. Among the reasons cited for the crisis is slowdown in tax
revenue and rising expenditure on non-merit freebies; expanding contingent
liabilities; and worse the ballooning of over dues of private power
distribution companies (Discoms).
The RBI has lambasted the practice of infusing capital and
giving subsidies to the Discoms. At least thrice major states have bailed out
Discoms. Indirect bailing out and taking over their losses is usual. The Power
sector, it finds is mismanaged and has become a major liability. The sector
accounts for much of the financial burden of state governments in India, both
in terms of subsidies and contingent liabilities. At same time, it has substantial
repercussion for state finances.
The RBI warning on power situation apparently is in the
context of moving every activity on electricity from railways, buses, and cars
to many others. It calls for immediate corrective measures. However, neither does
it speak of the high pricing of electricity and other utilities nor does it
mention high road toll rates and consequent inflation.
The highest debt-infested states are Haryana Rs 2.87tr, Uttar
Pradesh Rs 7.1 tr, West Bengal Rs 6.08 tr, Kerala Rs 3.91 tr and Punjab Rs 3.05
tr, Maharashtra 6.80 lakh cr, Karnataka 5.35
Andhra Pradesh Rs 4.42 tr, Gujarat 4.23 tr, Rajasthan Rs 5.37 tr, Bihar
2.86 lakh cr, Jharkhand Rs 1.29 tr. The debt-GSDP ratio of the stressed states is
to fall beyond 35 per cent by 2026-27.
States such as Bihar, Kerala, Punjab, Rajasthan, and West
Bengal are classified as the most stressed in terms of their finances and
liabilities. The tax revenues of some of the 10 states, including Madhya
Pradesh, Punjab, Haryana, Andhra Pradesh and Kerala, have been declining. For
most of these states, non-tax revenue dropped significantly in recent years
forcing them to resort to higher market borrowings.
The lowest debts are with North-East states -- Assam Rs
1.21 tr, Arunachal Pradesh Rs 15917 crore, Meghalaya Rs 17433 crore, Mizoram Rs
12991crore, Nagaland Rs 16562 crore, Sikkim Rs 12982 crore and Tripura Rs 26446
crore.
The Central bank criticises the states for doling out high subsidies,
particularly free electricity, free water, free public transportation, waiver
of pending utility bills and farm loan waivers. The RBI has not included
corporate doles in its deliberations. As per CAG, state subsidies grew at 12.9
per cent in 2021-22 and 11.2 per cent during 2020-21, after contracting in
2019-20. Gujarat, Punjab and
Chhattisgarh spend more than 10 per cent of their revenue on subsidies. Average
subsidies are at 8.2 per cent in 2021-22 having risen from 7.8 per cent in
2019-20. Jharkhand, Kerala, Odisha, Telangana and Uttar Pradesh are the top
five states with the largest rise in subsidies over the last three years.
Committed expenditure like interest payments, pensions and
administrative expenses, accounts for a significant portion (over 35 per cent)
of the total revenue expenditure in states like Haryana, Uttar Pradesh, West
Bengal, Kerala and Punjab, leads to lower expenses on developmental activities.
State finances are vulnerable to a variety of unexpected
shocks that might alter their fiscal outcomes, causing slippages in their
overall performance. Shocks may increase their debt by a significant amount,
posing fiscal sustainability challenges. Among the five most indebted states,
Punjab and Rajasthan appear to be most vulnerable to fiscal shocks arising out
of realisation of contingent liabilities. Financial restructuring or bail-out
of ailing Discoms could have severe impact on the debt-GSDP ratio of these two
states.
Taking into account the warning signs flashing from all the
indicators, Andhra Pradesh, Bihar, Rajasthan and Punjab exceeded both debt and
fiscal deficit targets for 2020-21 set by the 15th Finance Commission (FC-XV).
Kerala, Jharkhand and West Bengal exceeded the debt target, while Madhya
Pradesh overshot the fiscal deficit target. Haryana and Uttar Pradesh were
exceptions as they met both criteria.
According to the RBI, the debt level will remain higher
than Fiscal Responsibility and Budget Management (FRBM) stipulated 20 per cent.
The states are anticipating an increase in non-tax revenue, which
is generated from sources such as fees, fines, and royalties. The
report notes that states are expecting to see an increase in
revenue from various sources such as GST, excise duty and other
taxes.
The financial risks from freebies seem to be moderate in
case of many states, except Punjab which spends a huge amount on provision of
free utilities. It justifies it by saying that allocation to healthcare, education
infrastructure can promote economic growth and development. The RBI has also
proposed to establish a fund that would be used for buffer capital
expenditure during periods of strong revenue growth. The state
governments must restrict their revenue expenses by cutting down expenditure on
non-merit goods in the near term. In the medium term, the states need to put
efforts towards stabilising debt levels.
In competitive politics, fiscal responsibility is largely
ignored. Votes are better off than fiscal prudence. Of late, the spree of
infrastructure spending has caused heavy burden on meager finances. The need
for infra is there. The governments, however, have become reckless spenders
even for ill-designed roads and retrospection is passé. Lobbies work to rob the
states and the pressures created are a bit hard for the state governments to
resist. This leads to many duplication, irrational constructions as the Delhi’s
Ashram Chowk or NH9 witnessed.
For transport linkages the metro, its space guzzling stations
and other paraphernalia drain the states out. At least 11 cities’ metros remain
unutilized and have failed. Easier and inexpensive options are shunned because
of factors of rent seeking. More expensive a product, the higher is the rent. An
immediate review and pause on infra can help the states cut debt. Even the RBI
has chosen to ignore it. ---INFA
(Copyright, India News & Feature
Alliance)
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