Round The World
New Delhi, 6 January
2023
Combating China
TIME FOR FRESH THINKING
By Dr D.K. Giri
(Prof International Relations, JIMMC)
There are several theories and interpretations on China’s
phenomenal growth in the last three decades. Experts and observers, while
unanimous in their admiration of China’s exceptional growth, are concerned
about the current and future actions of Beijing. Martin Jacques, a British
author and a commentator says, “When China Rules the World: (there will be) The
End of the Western World and the Birth of a New Global Order”. This
interestingly is the title of his latest book. A former diplomat from
Singapore, Kishore Mehboobani, in his book, “Has China Won? The Chinese
Challenge to American Primacy” suggests that China will rule the 21st
century and will replacethe United States of America.
An American author John Mearsheimer warns that China’s rise
will not be peaceful; it will try to change the world order which will be
detrimental to the international peace and security. The Indian scholar Samir
Sharan in his book, Pax Sinica: Implications for the Indian Dawn traces the
trajectory of Chinese growth and its implications for India’s security,
development and role in the world.
It is not unusual that authors and observers will have
multiple perspectives on any issue. It is for the leadership of the country to
decipher such analyses, observations and interpretations and accordingly,
formulate their strategies in their national interest. It is also important,
particularly in case of China, that Indian leadership understands and foresees
China’s intentions in world politics.
Evidently, China is not a status-quo power but a
revisionist one. It seeks to dominate the world, either alongside the US in a
G-2 framework or supplanting the US as a superpower. The present supreme leader
of China Xi Jinping, who is also characterised as the new emperor of China, has
this irrepressible ambition of being the sole power of the world.
Be that as it may, it is noticeable that China wants to
become a regional hegemon, it wants to be the dominant power in Asia, change
the status quo in South China Sea and East China Sea, seeks to change the
borders with Taiwan and India, will try to build the blue-water navy to move
into the Indian Ocean and harass India. In doing so, according to Samir Sharan,
Beijing is using a 3M framework: a middle kingdom identity which signifies that
China is the centre of the world and no one is going to stop them.
The second M refers to modern tools meant to capture the
global platforms, to spy on others, steal data, build a modernised army to
invade and plunder. The third M is a medieval mindset shaped by the concepts of
total state control, tributary system (It involves multiple relationships of
trade, military force, diplomacy and ritual) which is expressed in the latest
initiative called Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).
In all this, what should worry New Delhi is that, in Xi’s
neo-imperial plan 2049, India is perceived as a mere irritant, an uncomfortable
and discordant neighbour. Xi is peeved that New Delhi did not sign the BRI and
showed tenacity in Doklam, Galwan and recently in Tawang. Xi will not brook any
insubordination in the neighbourhood. In economic terms, which are the main
drivers for Xi Jinping to flex his muscles, Beijing does not need the 3
trillion Indian market, nor does it require the ASEAN market. What it needs is
the 20-trillion European Union market. Xi Jinping will harass and humiliate
India at multiple points, systematically and gradually challenge the United
States, the only stumbling block in his imperial design.
How does India and USA react to Chinese ambitions? There
are two schools of thought on this. One, the future belongs to Asia and the
geo-political contest is between the US and Europe on the one hand and Asia on
the other. It is possible and advisable for India and China to live in peace
and grow together. The border skirmishes can be dialled down with diplomacy and
dialogue. This perhaps continues to be the dominant thinking in the South
Block.
The other school of thought contends that China has pushed
India beyond the boundary of non-alignment and is almost compelling her to seek
allies, in particular, the United States. It is also clear that the
relationship between China and US will define the contemporary world order.
Likewise, the China-India relation will be the second most important one in the
world politics. The recent clashes between Indian and Chinese forces including
the deaths in Galwan are indeed tragic and ominous, but things are going to get
worse if the Chinese mood of domination and penchant for expansion continue
unabated. For the sake of peace and security, India will have to guard herself
against Chinese hostile designs.
It is a fallacy to assume that China and India can carry on
with their economic partnership. It is not possible to do business with those who
are pointing the gun to your head. The Chinese actions on the border and
internationally vis-à-vis India does not point to a beneficial partnership but
towards a Himalayan conflict. Beijing’s actions, both diplomatic and military,
will compel the 540 million young Indians to perceive China as an enemy for
foreseeable future.
The United States, having made the mistake of feeding the
rise of China, making it more powerful than it as ever was, is trying to
contain it. They have seen and recognised the danger. The US has faced bigger
competitors in the 20th century- imperial Germany, Nazi Germany, Japan
in the Second World War and Soviet Union in the post war era. US will go to
enormous length to prevent China from changing the world order. It is a
fundamentally competitive relationship between US and China.
For both India and the US, China is now a common threat. USA
is looking out for potential allies like Australia, Japan, Vietnam and Taiwan.
India should reciprocate fully sooner than later. There is again a school of
thought that each country including India should be self-reliant to maintain
their development and security, preserve their strategic autonomy and so on. But
in real world, it is not possible for each country to be able to match another.
Taiwan could not match China nor Ukraine could equal Russia, but the latter has
stood up to Russia in a war for about a year. Ukraine could do so on the basis
of tangible support from the West, mainly the US.
Obviously, therefore, in view of the forgoing, each country
needs strategic ally as per the context – for security, economy, for knowledge
exchange and so on. It is in mutual interest of the US and India to come
together to contain and counter China. This alliance could be expanded by
including Australia, Japan, Vietnam and other European countries for the sake
of rule of law, human rights, open seas and peaceful co-existence. ---INFA
(Copyright, India News & Feature
Alliance)
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