Political
Diary
New Delhi, 20
December 2022
Indo-Pak New Low
MORE TROUBLE AHEAD
By Poonam I Kaushish
The story of India-Pakistan
relations is a tale of the proverbial one step forward two steps backwards. All
depends on which way the political wind is blowing, North or South. Presently,
it’s pugnacious and defiant. Who will have the last laugh?
In a ritual which is predictable Pakistan
Foreign Minister Bilawal Bhutto in keeping with his Party PPP’s position whipped
dead horse Kashmir again at UN Security Council, last week. But is next
outburst made India see red: “While Osama is dead, the Butcher of Gujarat lives
& he is the Prime Minister of India.”.
A
livid New Delhi hit back, “His comment is uncivilized, unparliamentary and
abusive.” For a country that “justifies and protects” perpetrators Osama bin
Laden Lakhvi, Hafiz Saeed, Masood Azhar and Dawood Ibrahim it has no locus
standing as terrorism is part of its State
policy. It accused Islamabad of harbouring UN Designated 126 terrorists and 27
terror groups and mistreating religious minorities. BJP cahoots remonstrations
were even louder.
Undoubtedly,
the personal attack against Modi paints a disquieting picture and marks a new
low in already frayed India-Pakistan ties and raises doubts whether this is
mere rhetoric or signifies instability and political pressure. More so, when
New Delhi is locked in an intensive stand-off with a belligerent China on its
Eastern border. Either way if a besieged Islamabad is trying to shore up its
domestic standing it spells trouble for South Asian stability.
Add it is
the lack of any official channel to address the tension. Recall, the 2019
Pulwana attack brought both neighbours to the brink of war and only many Track II
contacts between both countries security officials led to revival of the 2003
ceasefire on the Line of Control last year.
It is a moot point if temperatures
will ever come down in Indo-Pak relations post J&K bifurcation into two
Union Territories, J&K and Ladakh which has completely changed the dynamics
of dialogue on Kashmir. For New Delhi there is now no “outstanding" issue
of Kashmir except India’s claim on Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK), which
includes Gilgit-Baltistan.
Undeniably,
the very foundation of Pakistan was created on “Hatred against India”. Bilwal’s
grandfather Zulfiqar Bhutto called it a “thousand year war” and both countries
have fought three wars & several localised conflicts with Pakistan suffering
a humiliating defeat in all. Moreover, whenever it’s public demands or
questions its Government, the leaders or Army Generals give them a rattle of
anti-India rhetoric, and the public forgets everything.
Specially against the backdrop insecure
Pakistan is facing five major challenges, political instability, Baloch
insurgency, turbulences on Pakistan-Afghan border including strain in Pak-Taliban
ties, increasing terror attacks from Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan and international
marginalization due its economic distress. On the obverse it has to contend
with India’s growing international stature, political stability and growing
economy.
For Pakistani fed on the belief,
that ‘accepting the status quo with India is defeat’, has resulted in a
perceived ideological perspective that it has to be at war to stand up and be
counted. This is forcing Pakistani army to take calculated military risks as a
manifestation of its continued struggle which it must continue to provoke
India.
Besides, due to it being a failed
State a fundamentally dissatisfied Establishment seeks to increase its prestige
through spread of ideology and religion in pursuit of its revisionist policies.
Furthermore, India’s suspension of dialogue has reduced Pakistan’s incentive to
keep peace.
For Pak Generals acquiescing to
initiating a peace process with India would tantamount to not only defeating
purpose of the Army, but also, fundamentally eroding the legitimacy of the
Pakistani State. For the ruling troika seeped in armed tradition along-with its
jihadist proxies, the ‘core’ issue of
Kashmir is an article of faith.
Remember, Pakistan has a history of
living in denial and following a two-track policy - clandestine operations to
weaken India while simultaneously appearing to seek durable peace. Each time
India is attacked and it is established beyond doubt that perpetrators were
either directly or indirectly linked to Pakistan, Islamabad exercises the
clause of plausible deniability saying these are ‘non-state actors’ and the
Pakistani State does not “support” such acts.
Questionably, does Pakistan have
the appropriate diplomacy to counter Modi’s drive for Indian supremacy in the
region? And do the present assertive trends of Indian foreign policy portend
the likelihood of an aggressive outcome during Modi’s tenure?
As matters stand, Pakistan has got
caught between a rock and hard place. The military holds the strings with a
puppet Prime Minister. Alongside there is nothing to suggest that Islamabad is
ready to address New Delhi’s ‘core’ concerns on terrorism when it is busy
infiltrating and attacking Indian border posts. Nor is there any indication
that it has changed its antagonistic approach to India and refuses to give up
its confrontational mindset of “bleeding India with a thousand cuts.”
On its part, India’s decision not
to hold talks till it delivers on terror underlines its conviction that the
military cost will soon become too high for Pakistan. Islamabad needs to
understand that New Delhi’s patience is wearing thin. It should realize its jihadi tactics will not take it far in
its bid to be on par with India. It also underestimates India’s ability to
withstand such pressures and, if necessary, retaliate with greater force.
Modi has made plain: Cross the red
line and pay for it. If Pakistan wants friendly relations with India, it should
abandon its adventurism on the borders, come to senses and engage diplomatically
with India. Blanket denials without taking tangible action will no longer do as
the world is aware of Islamabad’s diabolical agenda. Time for it to contain or
eliminate terrorism.
The long-term prospects of
Pakistan-India relations will be determined to a large extent by India’s
strategic goals and objectives in the context of the evolving regional and
global security environment. The other part of the equation would be Pakistan’s
policy goals and its handling of this critical relationship.
There is definitely a strategic
imperative for peace between India-Pakistan because of their status as de facto
nuclear powers and the need for both to focus their energies and resources on
the gigantic task of economic development necessitated by widespread poverty.
Unfortunately, however, these factors alone will not be able to usher in an era
of durable peace and friendship.
India needs to calibrate its Pakistan
policy differently. It needs out-of-the-box thinking, an all-encompassing and
multi-pronged strategy to deal with Islamabad. Happily, NaMo is implementing a
‘zero tolerance to provocations’ policy. Pakistan must deny sanctuary to all
terrorist groups that operate from its soil and handover Masood Azhar and Hafiz
Saeed to India. The taste of the pudding is in the eating.
In a milieu of deep chill the way
forward rests on Islamabad’s ability to take concrete steps on the issue of
terrorism emitting from its soil as tolerance to terror is past its expiry date.
It needs to do a lot more than just generating artificial illusions and stop
terror. Only a clean break from this sordid past can lead to a revival of
Indo-Pak relations. ----- INFA
(Copyright,
India News & Feature Alliance)
|