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Delhi, 13 December 2022
Contrasting Poll Results
GUJARAT HOLDS MODI MAGIC
By Dhurjati Mukherjee
The recent Assembly elections’ results are a bit
puzzling. The BJP’s landslide victory in Gujarat but losing Himachal Pradesh to
Congress and its power in Municipal Corporation of Delhi to AAP. However, there
is certainty on one front-- the image of Prime Minister Modi, possibly more
than that of BJP, stands tall. There can be no denying that his appeal remains
unchallenged despite many shortcomings of the Central government, especially on
the economic front.
The Congress, which largely focussed on
bread-and-butter issues won in Himachal Pradesh, but it was decimated in
Gujarat with its vote share dropping by about 14 percent. It was indeed
surprising that neither the sufferings of the pandemic influenced the
electorate nor even the promise of the Congress party offering a compensation
of Rs 4 lakh per victim. And while people are unhappy with the general price rise,
especially that of cooking gas cylinders and petrol, the Congress couldn’t
encash on it. Its seats went down from 77 to 17 presently, and BJP grew
stronger.
This time, the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) appears
to be the biggest beneficiary. It opened its account in Modi’s State but only
time will tell whether it can emerge as a force in Gujarat in the coming years.
It did cut into the votes of the Congress, but that the grand old party would
have such a disastrous result, despite its traditional vote base of tribals and
Muslims in the districts of south and east Gujarat of the Narmada and Tapi
river belt, is difficult to fathom.
The seriousness of the campaign by Modi, who
took time off to address no less than 31 rallies and undertook major road shows
in Ahmedabad and Surat, while his Home Minister Amit Shah camped for days in
the State is demonstration enough of how seriously the BJP took the polls, despite
reports that its rule would continue. On the other hand, this seriousness was
not quite manifest in the Congress, and it seems to have expected a poor show.
Questions are thus bound to arise about the
efficacy of the standard of campaigning of the Congress, the appeal to the
voters at the grass-root level, the methodology of exposing the communal
tendencies of the BJP and its total failure to uplift the condition of the
masses. There were lacunae in these areas, but it appears that social and
economic issues and failures cannot possibly unseat a government by a
half-educated electorate.
Additionally, organisational muscle, which
includes financial resources, as also the leadership potential are important
factors in winning elections. The obvious reason is that the electorate may be
literate but not educated enough to weigh the pros and cons of the
deteriorating economic and social situation in the country. Plus, the Congress did
not have an able leader in the state and the organisational structure remained
quite weak.
Delving into the problem, it needs to be
stated that less educated people are swayed by the hype which Modi has been
generating in terms of technology in education, industrial development and the
constructions of flyovers and highways though these hardly benefit the masses.
Heavy industries do not generate sufficient employment, while agriculture in
Gujarat is not quite in healthy state.
Some analysts talk of the Gujarat model of
development but our understanding of this is centred on growth, not real or
inclusive development. That is the reason why the cities are prospering
compared to the villages, the rich and the upper middle class becoming
prosperous and the gap between the rich and the poor growing. However, it goes
to the credit of Modi for ending the state’s water crisis in Saurashtra, which
benefitted the common man. Also reports indicate that every Gujarat household
now gets piped water.
Fighting elections and choosing the right
issues appears to be the forte of the BJP. And what helps is that it has all
along been a centralised party with local leaders not given the same
importance. Though it is a cadre-based party, decisions are taken at the Delhi headquarters
by the core group, headed by Modi. This has been a long trend in Indian
politics since the time of Indira Gandhi and the BJP has followed this
scrupulously. But it doesn’t seem to work for the Congress anymore.
However, Himachal Pradesh has exemplified the
limits of Modi’s ability to single handedly win elections. It is true that the State
only reinforced a trend of throwing out incumbents as has been the case in Madhya
Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, and Jharkhand. Though Modi sought to woo the voters by
showcasing himself rather than the local candidates, the anti-incumbency wave
got precedence. But a big factor, which may have not got the attention it
deserved was that as many as 21 BJP rebels contested the polls as Independents
and spoilt the party’s chances of emerging victorious. Moreover,it’s being said
that Congress’ Priyanka Gandhi presence this time, unlike in western UP, did
make an impact among women voters and those from lower castes.
On AAP’s front, while it awaits bagging the
status of a national party having opened its account in Gujarat, its historic win
in the Municipal Corporation of Delhi polls, dislodging the BJP and with it the
Modi’s popular image, is a reason to be elated. Undoubtedly, Arvind Kejriwal has
turned out to be a leader who has the ability of understanding the needs and
demands of the common man and delivering, which makes a vital difference to
their lives. Given the fact that it is already ruling in Delhi, there are
expectations that the ‘double-engine’ government will improve the life of
citizens in the national capital, provided given a free hand.
Finally, the coming year is crucial for
political parties as elections are due in three Hindi belt States along with
Karnataka. Some analysts are talking of a combined opposition with Congress
giving the leadership. But the problem is that the acceptability of Rahul
Gandhi as the leader of a united front, if he so chooses, may be somewhat
difficult at this point. The new Congress President Khargehas a responsibility to
seriously try and forge unity and fight elections jointly. And while a section
of analysts may dismiss the Bharat Jodo Yatra as inconsequential, it can’t
be denied that it just might have the potential of resurrecting the Congress’ fortunes
in the long run. The yatra has on the one hand spread the message of countering
the politics of hate and division, and on the other, reached out to the masses.
In the Gandhian spirit!
The focus of the ruling dispensation of
playing with the religious sentiment of the masses has, no doubt, paid
dividends for the BJP. Meanwhile, reports suggest that work around the grand
Ram mandir in Ayodhya is progressing fast and should be ready before the big
election of 2024, the timing of which should pay dividends. Moreover, Modi’s
appeal or claim of providing a sense of security and stability to the voters
appears to be going in favour of the BJP.
With caste-class and religion playing a big
role in present-day elections, it’s about time the Congress weaves a new
framework based on societal consolidation, economic recovery and spread the
same among subaltern communities. It exuberates confidence that Rahul’s
yatra,touching on the masses’ problems and calling for transformation of the
socio-economic order, will yield dividends in the coming year. The Himachal
result has given it this confidence. Whether it will percolate down to results
is anybody’s guess, but a resurrection is a big challenge. A bigger one being
of countering the Modi magic. ---INFA
(Copyright, India
News & Feature Alliance)
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