Open
Forum
New Delhi, 23 November 2022
COP27 &
After
ARE CLIMATE
FUNDS ADEQUATE?
By Dhurjati
Mukherjee
Umpteen numbers of reports and
research studies have come out in recent years regarding the extent of global
warming and the disastrous effect of emissions on the climate. Such voluminous
documents have possibly not been produced in the last hundred years or so. It
is now an established fact that limiting warming to 1.5 C is an impossible
task, whatever measures, which appear realistic, are taken. Deliberations,
conferences and meetings are being held all across the globe, but the resultant
effects are far from encouraging. As every year, the COP27 was held this
year too with a lot of hope and aspiration, but experts opined that the new
climate agreement had done virtually nothing to address greenhouse gas
emissions.
The recently released 2022 Global
Carbon Budget report predicted that global carbon emissions in 2022 remain at
record levels with no sign of reduction and, if the current levels persist,
there is a 50% chance that warming would exceed 1.50C in nine years’
time. But climatologists believe that the chance is around 60%. The report
noted that the global fossil CO2 emissions are projected to rise one percent
this year, compared to 2021, slightly above the 2019 pre-Covid levels. While
fossil fuel emissions are projected to fall in China by 0.9% and the European
Union by 0.8%, it is estimated to rise in the US by 1.5% and in India by as
much as 6%, the largest single driver of the growth in carbon dioxide globally.
Similar is the observation of the
World Meteorological Organization in its State of Global Climate Report 2022
that stated that global mean temperature in 2022 is currently estimated to be
about 1.15 (1.02 to 1.280 C) above pre-industrial levels (1850-1900
average) making it rather impossible to meet the goal of keeping warming within
1.50 C goal by the end of the century.
Meanwhile, a section of scientists
associated with the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) temperatures to
rise by 2-30 C above pre-industrial levels by 2100. Current policies
are on track to reduce emissions by 7% compared with 2019 but 43% reduction is
needed to limit global warming to 1.50C – the target set by the 2015
Paris Agreement. Many countries have updated targets this year and if they are
met, emissions could drop by 4.89 Gt by 2030.
As the projected emissions are
still far above the levels required to limit warming to 1.50C, the
UNEP countries will have to commit much more ambitious targets to meet the 2030
deadline, which appears quite an impossibility. Even if warming is reduced
to below 20C, scientists expects climate change to cut crop yields,
make severe droughts and heatwaves more frequent and increase the intensity of
natural disasters.
The only redeeming feature is that
the COP27 presidency launched the Sharm-el-Shiekh Adaptation Agenda outlining
30 goals to enhance resilience for four billion people living in the most
vulnerable communities by 2030. India having vast coastlines and other
vulnerable areas will benefit. The presidency sought to mobilize $140 billion
to $300 billion through both public and private sources annually to pursue
goals, including transitioning to climate resilient, sustainable agriculture
that can increase yields by 17% and reduce farm level greenhouse gas emissions
by 21% without expanding agricultural frontiers. However, the details of
mobilization of funds and their dispersal have not been clearly outlined.
Another significant development is
the announcement of the Coalition for Disaster Resilience (CDRD) to set up an
infrastructure Resilience Accelerator Fund with $50 million to support global
action to build robust infrastructure in developing countries that can
withstand impacts of climate change. It will be a multi-donor trust fund,
managed by the United Nations Multi-Partner Trust Fund Office, New York. This
rather small fund is expected to be supported by India, the EU, UK, Australia,
the IRAF’s multi-pronged programme and offer customized technical assistance,
capacity building, research, knowledge management and advocacy across the infrastructure
life cycle for countries at all stages of development.
The requirement of finance for the
developing countries is much more and this has been aptly pointed out by India,
which took a leading role on behalf of the like-minded developing countries
(LMDC) group at the conference. India, while flagging how even the commitment
of $100 billion made in 2009 by developed countries was not only miniscule,
given the scale of needs, but that too has not been received as yet.
In this connection, it needs to be
mentioned that India rightly reminded that “the standing committee of finance
had estimated that resources in the range of $6 trillion to $11 trillion are
required till 2030 to meet the targets set by developing countries in their
NDCs; the lower limit i.e. $6 trillion currently being committed while the
upper limit is $11 times”. According to the OECD, hardly $80 billion could be
mobilized in 2021. Experts are unanimous in their opinion that rich
countries have to start delivering on the $100 billion pledge immediately and
also make up for the past shortfalls. But this possibly remains a pious wish at
this juncture.
According to available estimates,
India needs $2.5 trillion till 2030 for meeting the nationally determined
contribution (NDC) commitments. Currently the green finance available in the
country represents just 25% of the total required across sectors for mitigation
alone. If such finance is not available, India does not have any other option
but to support communities from its domestic budget.
Environmentalists are of the
opinion that the developed countries who have the highest capability,
financially and technologically, to take the lead in reducing emissions,
continue to fall short of expectations while continuing to emit and
disproportionately consume the global carbon budget. Though the informal draft
emphasized on developed countries attaining net-negative carbon emissions by
2030, this remains a dream. Developing countries can enhance mitigation
ambition based on the provision of support by developed countries to developing
countries. The informal draft also has referred to doubling the adaptation
finance to $40 billion a year by 2025, which appears rather impossible given
the attitude of the developed nations.
The text of the conference in its
conclusion on the mitigation clause (para 28) called upon countries “to
accelerate the development, deployment and dissemination of technologies and
the adoption of policies to transition towards low-emission energy systems,
including by rapidly scaling up the deployment of clean power generation and
energy efficiency measures, including accelerating efforts towards the phase
down of clean power and phase out of inefficient fossil fuel subsidies.” However,
it has not been quite clear about the finance aspect and what the developed
world would give to the developing countries as also the modus operandi of
transfer of technology.
The only encouraging news is the
creation of the ‘loss and damage’ fund that would help poor and vulnerable
nations cope with climate disasters worsened by greenhouse gases. Such a
financial facility is, no doubt, a breakthrough but the funding would be
restricted to only future loss and damage and no historical responsibility by
the developed world would be taken for emission rise. However, the statement
did not set a deadline for the fund’s operationalization. Indeed, a lot finer tuning is vital.---INFA
(Copyright, India News & Feature
Alliance)
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