Economic Highlights

New Delhi, 14 November 2022

Gujarat Poll Spend

TO SHOOT UP, SATTA BONANZA

By Shivaji Sarkar

The ensuing Gujarat Assembly elections may cost at least Rs 1000 crore to the nation in direct expenses both by the Election Commission and political parties. The expenses would be about 250 percent more than in 2017, following Nirvachan Sadan’s decision to allow candidates to spend more as poll expenses to match inflationary costs.

The election expenses help boost the local economy, those who sell various kinds of buntings, flags, other gifts to voters, photographs of leaders and provide a number of services ranging from vehicles, audio systems and other facilities for holding small and big meetings. Tea vendors and food caterers too earn quite a bit and in addition local artists are given roles to entertain the audience.

In a way, these expenses give support to a large section of small-time operators. But the larger share now a days are pocketed by event managing units for providing election package services. Bigger expenditure goes into telephone and internet connections and transportation of leaders and workers.Besides, sponsored and not sponsored poll surveys also entail a significant expenditure.

Another interesting aspect is the betting at the satta bazar,or the betting on candidates’ fate,which involves thousands of crores of investment.Though it has now become a national phenomenon, but in Gujarat the elections evoke special interest. The Phalodi-based satta bazar takes keen interest in the fate of each of the candidates. It is said that the candidates themselves sometimes create the satta phenomenon to boost their popular esteem to enhance chances of winning. Presently, the satta is throwing its phalanx with BJP.The bookies have become active and are expecting a turnover of Rs 40000 to 50000 crore.

On the official front, both the State government and the Election Commission dole out contracts to the service providers. The entire election process doesn’t necessarily end up as a political drama but involves a large section of the society, which benefits and in Gujarat, every bit is presented as a sophisticated event!

The actual expenses would be known only after the polls, but it’s certain that the EC would spend Rs 450-odd crore in conducting the two-phase elections. The State’s Chief Electoral Officer (CEO) determines the final expenditure under the EC, with the figure usually exceeding the provisional allotment.

In the annual budget for 2022–23 for elections, the State government allocated Rs 387 crore expenses based on costs estimated by the CEO for the 2022 Assembly elections. Assembly elections 2017 were supposed to cost Rs 250 crore, but the actual expenses turned out to be Rs 326 crore. Similarly, in 2012, Rs 175 crore were estimated, but the amount exceeded.

The expenses would go up due to factors including increase in the cost of remuneration to election staff, increased logistics and vehicles costs, increased number of booths and polling stations. Importantly, a candidate in 2012could spend only Rs 16 lakh, which has now been raised to Rs 40 lakh. Say, on an average if there are three candidates from three major parties BJP, Congress and AAP, the candidate expenses would accrue to Rs 218.4 crore for 182 seats. However, in many constituencies, there will be other smaller regional and state parties which would be contesting, thus perhaps taking the total expenses to Rs 400 crore plus.

Importantly, political parties are taking extra care of training each of their new candidates on how to manage election expense accounts so that queries from EC are avoided. The poll commission has a large paraphernalia with squads, surveillance, income tax department, state police and state excise department for keeping tab on the minutest of expenses, even cost of garlands and bouquets.

The State Excise Department normally tends to keep tabs of liquor sales at each outlet making it tough for parties and candidates to entertain with booze. Often such entertainments are manoeuvredand sometimes funded by individuals and friends, so that officials shouldn’t get a scent of it.

Political parties get funds from electoral bonds and donations. In 2017, the central BJP collected Rs 160.7 crore and its Gujarat unit Rs 88.5 crore. The expenses shown to EC were Rs 115.02 crore by the central party and the State party spent Rs 15.84 crore. There were expenses of Rs 76.24 lakhon top leaders, including three visits of Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath, and another Rs 35.64 lakhfor other leaders.

The central Congress party collected Rs 49.1 crore in 2017 and the State unit Rs 20.1 crore. The spending figures were Rs 12.4 crore by the central party and Rs 7.6 crore by the State unit.

BJP Vice President Gordhan Zadaphiahas demanded that the expenses to be incurred on Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s poll rallies in Gujarat be added to the party’s expenditure, while Congress sought more transparency in the election process during their meetings with Chief Election Commissioner Rajiv Kumar during his visit to the State. In many cases, these are added to the expenses of the candidates.

Congress central headquarters spent Rs 6.05 crore on travel expenses of star campaigners and visits of senior leaders such as Rahul Gandhi, Manmohan Singh, Ashok Gehlot and others.The BJP spent 2.5 times of its immediate rival. A major expense was on publicity. Overall, the BJP spent Rs 45.6 crore on media and advertisements, while the Congress spent Rs 8.68 crore. The BJP spent Rs 13.01 crore on procuring publicity materials such as hoardings, flags, arches, banners, stickers and so on compared to Congress’ Rs 1.30-crore.

The BJP also spent more -- Rs 6.77 crore -- on public meetings, rallies and processions, compared to Congress’ Rs 1.70 crore. The BJP campaign was launched with a sea plane ride by Modi at Sabarmati river. All these expenses were for the 45-day period or less during the elections. Actual campaigning in various modes begins much earlier. For the ruling party, the State government expenses are not reflected.

Apart from official expenses there would be about a moderate portion that would possibly not be in white. But that is how elections are fought. Finally, the expenses may go beyond the normal assessments, which too are likely to go up. Getting the maths right, may turn out tricky. ---INFA

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