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Round The World
New Delhi, 30
September 2022
India-China-Russia
NEW DELHI INTROSPECTS!
By Dr. D.K. Giri
(Prof. International Relations,
JIMMC)
On my return from Geneva, I ran into a Russian diplomat at
the airport as we were scrambling to find our boarding gate. We had some time
at hand. Hence I grabbed the opportunity to probe the Russian on the war in
Ukraine. The obvious reference and the starting point of our conversation was
Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s suggestion to the Russian President Vladimir
Putin, “it is no time for war; diplomacy and dialogues at the best route to
arriving at resolutions to conflicts.” The diplomat’s random and restrained
responses are indicative of where Russia’s strategic thinking and whether India
should go with it. Time for introspection indeed! South Block appears to be
doing so, albeit a bit late, after Modi’s profoundly philosophical chide of
Putin.
I began by saying to the Russian, “we are sorry that USSR
broke up. We also understand the Russian attempt to reunite the Republic”.
Elaborating I said, if Germany could reunite after 50-odd years of division of
the country, and if 27 European countries can come together in a Union, why not
the erstwhile constitutes of USSR rejoin! But the reunification should be done
through dialogues and diplomacy, not by force.
The Union of Soviet Republics fell apart by denial of
self-expression, democracy. Gorbachev introduced ‘glasnost’ and ‘perestroika’,
of course, without relevant structures which ironically led to the rupture of
the Union. It appeared as if the Union was held by force, not consent. “You are
using the same tool for reunification. Will it work?”
The second point I referred to was their alliance with
China. I said, “you had come close to the West, you are the member of G-7
group, which became G-8 after you joined. India and Russia have been friends.
Why do you have to rally behind China, a country that is authoritarian,
aggressive and revanchist, when Russia was restructuring to be a part of world of
democracies?”
A significant sidebar to our conversation was the news
broke to us by an Indian engineer sitting next to us and apparently
eavesdropping on our talks. With no attention to any conversational protocols,
he asked both of us, “have you heard that Xi Jinping is under house arrest? The
Chief of Chinese army is taking over”. We were both startled. The news was
indeed trending in social media.
Admittedly, it is practically difficult to extract any
authentic news from China because of the authoritarian system prevailing in the
country, which disallows freedom of expression causing rumours to spread thick
and fast. The secrecy undergirding the system gives rise to rumours and
speculations. However, the intelligence agencies and investigating media of the
world have jumped in to check the veracity of such news. There are evidences
now to suggest that there is stiff opposition to Xi Jinping’s foreign and
military policy. There are attempts to change things, strip him off these two
powers – foreign and military – before the 20th Congress of Chinese
Communist Party.
The opposition to Jinping has sprung from the majority of
Chinese concern about the declining economy of the country, the growing
tensions with USA and the possible invasion of Taiwan. The Chinese realise that
a direct military confrontation with the US will destroy whatever China has
built so far with that country’s support. They are also wary of Russians’ fate
in Ukraine, Putin is stuck.
The possibility of the coup was supported by one particular
incident. That is, on his return from Samarkand Xi Jinping did not attend the
dinner, did not make any speech in the meeting of Shanghai Community
Cooperation Group. This is unusual as the Group is powerful and is supposed to
be the counterpart of NATO. Since that meeting there was no appearance of Xi
Jinping at least for ten days, till he did so in Public on Tuesday. Xi Jinping
had antagonised millions of his opponents. Out of 96 million CCP members, only
ten per cent are with him. His opponents were said to have cornered him at home
and have been negotiating. There is military presence in Beijing, which is
unusual.
The diplomat defensively said that it may not be possible
for us to step back after the Ukraine war. We would not mind if Americans were
manoeuvring in a far-off country, say, even a hundred kilometres away. How can
we not react when they do so at our doorstep? He added that India is our close
friend and hoped that China and India will normalise the relations. In reaction
to the rumoured coup, he said optimistically, “the Chinese foreign policy will
not change with the change of leadership at home.” The pro-China Russian mood
was evident.
If the diplomats’ views are a sample of Russian
Administrations strategic thinking, is New Delhi on the right track to win over
the Russians and wean them away from the Chinese? Secondly, if the churn in
China is taking place, in order to lessen the tensions with USA and normalise
their relations with the West, will it also lead to cooling off with India? The
second assumption seems improbable and even undesirable for India’s national
interest.
India has major territorial dispute with China. Beijing has
been in occupation of India’s territory since 1962. New Delhi should reclaim
those in time. India’s interest is safeguarded by vivisection of China, at
least by liberation of Tibet as an independent country, which it was. New Delhi
should portray China as a systemic threat to the world; continue to decouple
Russia from China despite her dalliances in SCO and BRICS etc. New Delhi should
deepen the divide between China and the West.
So far, New Delhi has been trying to be nice and friendly
with both the blocs – USA and its Allies on the one hand, and Russia and China
on the other. The strategic shift is now called, ‘from non-alignment to
multi-alignment’. This causes loss of confidence and trust among partners. It also
compromises India on principles, which are her core strength. That is why
perhaps USA has resumed arm supply to Pakistan.
The argument adduced by South Block is that USA is wanting
to distance Islamabad from Beijing. But it could also be that USA is telling
New Delhi, if you do not make up your mind vis-à-vis China and Russia we will
arm Pakistan. Further, if and when UNSC is restructured, will India get the
permanent seat! Will it not be questioned for its ambiguously neutral position
on Ukraine? UN stands for principles whether they are actualised on the ground
or not.
The EAM Jaishankar’s speech at UNGA which was said to be a
bold statement seemed actually rhetorical as there is no point saying, “on
Ukraine, we are on the side of peace and sovereignty of a country, dialogue and
diplomacy etc”. Will such words wash when there is bloodshed every day, mass
graves are being dug, a country has been invaded? Even smaller countries of the
world are publically naming Russia as an aggressor. If New Delhi is not naming
Russia, the leadership should, with all the diplomatic and political capital at
its command, broker a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine, and bring
this war to an end. At this stage, mere statements will not work. It is time to
take steps in either direction.---INFA
(Copyright, India News & Feature
Alliance)
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