Events & Issues

New Delhi, 10 September 2022

Gujarat Elections

WILL AAP MAKE A DENT?  

By Sagarneel Sinha

Gradually the political temperature is rising in the western state of Gujarat. In the last three decades, the political contest there has often been bipolar with BJP and Congress contesting against each other. This time, however, it changes into a triangular battle with the entry of AAP, which has already declared its candidates for 29 seats for the 182 Assembly seats.

In national politics, Gujarat, the home State of both Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah, is also known as the laboratory of BJP. The saffron party has been winning all the Assembly polls since 1995. In 1996, its government fell due to a factional war but it returned to power after winning the polls in 1998. Since then, it has been in power. The BJP hasn’t ruled any other State for such a long period as it has been ruling Gujarat for the past 24 years.

The Assembly election in BJP’s strongest bastion would take place at a time when the Opposition has perhaps found a glimmer of hope of defeating Modi in the big battle of 2024, following JD(U) supremo and Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar breaking its alliance with the BJP and sending strong signals of being on its side. But it is no secret that Nitish has lost a section of political support which he enjoyed during the late 2000s and early 2010s in his State. Plus, the main opposition party, Congress, has launched ‘Bharat Jodo Yatra’ from Kanyakumari to Kashmir with Rahul Gandhi playing the Sardar patel card to woo the voters.  

The Congress, which has been facing internal dissension with leaders from the old guard such as Kapil Sibal and Ghulam Nabi Azad quitting, believes its ‘transformational movement’ would be a game-changer for the country’s politics. However, what comes as a surprise is that the yatra’s route doesn’t include Gujarat!

Since the 1995 Assembly elections, BJP’s tally had never come below 100. However, it happened in the 2017 polls, when it managed to win only 99 seats whereas the Congress increased its tally to 77. In terms of vote percentage, the BJP was then ahead of the grand old party by almost 8 per cent. It was believed then that the agrarian crisis was one of the main reasons for BJP’s tally decline, as it lost support in rural rather than in urban areas, which are known as its strongest bastions.

This time too, a significant section of political analysts are predicting that the agrarian crisis is going to be one of the main factors in the elections and believe the challenge is big. Dissatisfaction in the agricultural belt can’t be denied, but it should be remembered that this is not 2017. Political analysts also view that the present state Congress doesn’t have the power to challenge the BJP as it did then. Out of the three youth leaders that the grand old party banked upon in 2017, the OBC face Alpesh Thakore and Patidar face Hardik Patel have already left and joined the BJP. Only Jignesh Mevani, the party’s Dalit face, remains with it.

The Patidar agitation too has cooled down. But this is not the only change. Back in 2017, there was no Pradhan Mantri Kisan Samman Nidhi, the scheme started by the Modi government in 2018. This scheme gives Rs 6000 annually to the farmers in three equal instalments of Rs 2000. Back in April 2020, the Gujarat government had claimed of giving money as part of the scheme to over 40 lakh farmers. The agrarian crisis is a real issue, but it would be silly to ignore the impact of the PM-Kisan Scheme among the farmers.

At the same time, the BJP has to start planning on countering AAP’s entry into the electoral arena. The AAP is trying to lure the voters with its tried and tested formula of free electricity and quality education along with women-oriented schemes. Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal, has in fact, in the past months increased his visits to the State, laying the importance the party attaches to Gujarat. More so, after it won handsomely in the northern state of Punjab this year.

In fact, AAP is also eyeing the Gujarat polls to raise its status from a State to a National party. Currently, it has its presence only in three States -- Delhi, Punjab and Goa and requires opening its account in a fourth, to move a step further. To get State party status, it will need 6 per cent vote or has to win at least three seats (2 per cent of Assembly seats). The party has already allied with the Bharatiya Tribal Party, which was an ally of the Congress in the last Assembly elections and had won two seats. Tribals account for around 16 per cent of the State population.

The main Opposition Congress is completely in disarray. Since the last elections, it has been hit badly by defections of its MLAs and leaders. Recently, the party got a jolt when Gujarat Youth Congress President Vishwanathsinh Vaghela resigned from the post, alleging allotment of posts in exchange for money and alleged control of the Gandhi family in the party. It is expected that AAP is going to eat into a section of Congress’ votes.

But its success will depend on its ability to convert these votes into seats and a good vote share. For this, it is not only banking on anti-BJP votes, but is targeting the BJP votes. Kejriwal has been trying to portray the AAP as a true nationalist party, and along with the slogan of free electricity, quality education and women-oriented schemes seeks to wean away a section of dissatisfied BJP’s votes.

However, the BJP can claim a lot to offer to the electorate. In 2020, the State government  started the Kisan Suryoday Yojana to provide 16 hours of power supply to farmers. Along with that, there are important welfare schemes of the Modi government like Ayushman Yojana, Jan Dhan Yojana, Ujjwala Yojana, PM Awas Yojana, Janaushadhi scheme and Har Ghar Jal campaign. Thus, it can well counter AAP’s basket of welfare schemes, and that too some which have been successful and few focussing on the women voters.

The main challenger this time for the BJP appears to be the 24-year-old long anti-incumbency, though it has tried to counter it. Last year it replaced the entire Cabinet led by then Chief Minister Vijay Rupani with that of Bhupendra Patel, a leader from the influential Patidar community. Indeed, BJP is under pressure not only to retain its bastion, but win with an impressive tally to send another strong signal for 2024 polls. Despite factors such as price rise, unemployment and agrarian distress, it does as of now seem to be ahead in the race with its welfare schemes, strong organisation and of course the Modi card. The big question is whether  AAP will make a dent? Also, it remains to be seen whether it can fulfil its national dream through Gujarat. ---INFA

(Copyright, India News & Feature Alliance)