Open Forum
New Delhi, 29 June
2022
Employment
Drive
NO SHORT
CUT, PLAN LONG TERM
By
Dhurjati Mukherjee
In the backdrop of looming
unemployment in the country, recent available data reveals that in 2019 and
2020, vacancies in Central agencies, excluding Armed forces, have touched 10
lakh, over double from previous four years. In 2020, there were nearly 8.9 lakh
civilian vacancies in Central government and another 1.1 lakh in Central forces
that come under Home Ministry, while in 2019 the unfilled positions were over
10 lakh. From 4.7 lakh in 2016, vacancies crossed 7 lakh in 2018 and 10 lakh in
2019. These vacancies saw a steady increase from 5% in 2001to 16.2% in 2013 but
dipped below 10% in 2015 and 2016 and then increased sharply to cross 20% in
2019 and 2020.
The government had
informed Rajya Sabha that there were an estimated 8.72 lakh vacancies in
various Central ministries and departments as on March 1, 2020, in respect of
regular civilian employees. MoS Personnel also claimed 2.65 lakh Central
government posts had been filled up between 2018-19 and 2020-21 through
recruitment agencies like SSC, the UPSC and Railway Recruitment Boards.
Amidst this bleak
scenario, the government recently announced its decision to recruit 10 lakh
people in Central government departments and ministries on ‘mission mode’ by
December 2023, a deadline close to Lok Sabha elections. The initiative for
hiring has come from the Prime Minister himself. It is understood that nearly
70% of the hiring will be done by Home Ministry in paramilitary and police
forces, railway ministry for technical and non-technical staff, education and
health ministries for faculty and non-faculty staff, postal department and
defence ministry.
Additionally, the
government announced ‘Agnipath’ scheme wherein soldiers will be recruited in
the Army, Air Force and Navy on a short-term contractual basis. The idea being
to hire 46,000 Agniveers of which 34,000 will leave service after four years
with lumpsum benefits of Rs 11 lakh. The ultimate aim is to have regular
soldiers and Agniveers in a 50:50 ratio. This will reduce their average age
from 32 years to 26, a huge improvement since younger soldiers are fitter and
tougher. This new approach may not be limited to the 1.2 million Armed service
personnel but the para-military and civilian security forces too.
Experts fear that
demolishing so many gun trained youngsters in an era of high unemployment may
lead them into crime, terrorism or other forms of violence. This is not without
reason and must be seriously considered as Agniveers’ future will be entirely
uncertain.
Though the aim of the
government is to cut the ballooning salary and pension bill, the scheme has come
in for criticism from all quarters. Several senior retired Army personnel have
observed that keeping in view the requirements of the Armed forces as well problems
of unemployment and underemployment, economic considerations can’t be the sole
criterion. Military life and career can’t be evaluated from money saved to the
exchequer.
Major General Satbir
Singh (retd) said the scheme will adversely affect the efficiency and
effectiveness of the military as it was not in keeping with the erstwhile
military tradition and ethos. A retired brigadier pointed there was no
rationale behind doing away with the age-old established practice in recruiting
soldiers: “This Agnipath scheme is going to destroy the single-class regiments
like Rajput Regiment, Sikh Regiment, Jat Regiment, Gorkha Rifles etc.”
Thus, it’s quite
natural that youngsters, hoping to get into the Armed forces, are
understandably angry with Agnipath post four years, as unemployment looms
large. The government may need to re-consider the entire issue and fix tenure
of these Agniveers to say 7 years that was there till 1977. Moreover, at least
40 to 50% should be the retention ratio.
With the
deterioration in the economic situation, there is good reason to believe the
unemployment scenario would worsen. More than unemployment, underemployment is
another problem as young people need to be gainfully engaged throughout the
year and not just for a few months. In this context, the recent Budget’s
allocation for the MGNREGS scheme hasn’t been substantial as providing
work for even 100 days may not be possible, given that the backlog of dues from
2021-22 is yet to be cleared in some States.
The unemployment rate
is high and not truly reflected in official figures and if underemployment is
taken into consideration, job opportunities are very low, even for educated
and/or skilled people. The resultant effect is increasing social tensions,
including crimes of various nature.
India needs to create
100 million more jobs by 2030. Job creation is the biggest development
challenge that the country faces. While the link between economic and job
growth is well-recognised, uncertainties remain. Experts believe that more jobs
needs to be created by new, young and small enterprises or large/established
firms? Secondly, will more jobs be created in mega cities or Tier 2/3 cities?
And, thirdly, how will the fourth industrial revolution and artificial
intelligence impact job creation?
India also still has
one of the lowest entrepreneurship rates in the world for its stage of
development. What can promote entrepreneurship? Improving the business climate,
less regulation, lower taxes, and scaling up investments in physical and human
infrastructure are seen as factors that drive entrepreneurship even in
developed countries.
Empirical evidence
from districts suggests that anticipation of abnormally high returns on
investment, less regulation and business environment are not key drivers of
entrepreneurship. The critical factors are investments in human and physical
infrastructure. Districts that have improved their infrastructure, provided a
supportive industrial structure for input and output markets, and those that
have small local suppliers have shown a faster growth rate in entrepreneurship
and jobs.
This pattern is seen
in both the manufacturing and service sectors. Urbanisation and job growth
moved in tandem in early 1990s, but this changed during the last decade. Mega
cities and their outskirts have become too costly, forcing manufacturing
enterprises to move to Tier 2/3 cities to remain competitive. Unfortunately,
India’s spatial development process has been too slow to accommodate the
transition of manufacturing hubs to medium-size cities.
Questions arise
whether the fourth industrial revolution has impacted the pace of job creation
in India? Unlike China, which has been a formidable exporter of manufactured
goods, India has acquired a global reputation for exporting services. It has leapfrogged
the manufacturing sector, going straight from agriculture into services -- a
path which offers hope to late-comers to economic development.
Besides, due to its
cost advantage, India can export healthcare services in a big way. Setting up educational
institutions and strengthening existing ones can help create a large number of
jobs down the line, such as in leisure, arts/entertainment and housing. Computer
scientists/engineers, IT administrators, architects, carpenters, plumbers,
construction workers, and machinery operators will continue to be absorbed in
large numbers. While energy and climate change may too create some jobs, urban
India will continue to absorb a large number of domestic workers, both men and
women.
To create 100 million
additional jobs is a tall order. Raising entrepreneurship, investments in human
and physical infrastructure are policies which need top priority. Short-term
goals may help win elections, but not the country.---INFA
(Copyright, India
News & Feature Alliance)
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