Open Forum

New Delhi, 1 June 2022

Global Emissions

INDIAN CITIES TO BE HIT

By Dhurjati Mukherjee

Just on the eve of the World Environment Day, the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) has come out with its latest ‘State of Climate’ report, which found that the last seven years were globally the warmest years on record, adding the average global temperature last year was about 1.1 degree Celsius above the pre-industrial level (1850-1900). The report further found that extreme weather events around the world have led to loss and damages of over $100 billion in 2021 and severely hit food security. Added to this, heat waves all over India is very much in the news, causing loss to life and property.  

A report by Damian Carrington, environment editor of The Guardian argued that even a further rise of one degree centigrade that is, a total of 2⁰ C, which now appears to exceed the target in the arctic temperature, would be enough for the oceans to wash away innumerable cities and towns located on the coasts.

The higher tidal waves will not be able to differentiate cities by their names such as Kolkata,  Mumbai, New York and Perth when they hit the coast line in fury. Moreover, the heat waves in most tropical countries, including India, which have been increasing every year is a clear reflection of the fact that global warming is increasing at a fast pace.

In such a scenario, the very recent IPCC report titled ‘Climate Change 2022: Mitigation of Climate Change’, released last month, warned that if global greenhouse gas emissions don’t peak by 2025 and reduce by 43 percent in the subsequent five years, the world will have to face warning of around 3 degree C by 2100, which appears a practical reality. Such warming will obviously have disastrous consequences such as longer heat waves, forest fires, sea level rise, melting of glaciers, droughts and cyclones, it observed. The global average temperature has already increased to 1.1 degree Celsius from pre-industrial levels.

The findings of the report, prepared by 278 authors from 65 countries, including India, are a clear reflection of inadequate efforts by most countries on the ground to cut emissions. It prompted the UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres, to call it a “file of shame, cataloguing the empty pledges that put up firmly on track towards an unbelievable world”. The present report has severe consequences for Indian cities, specially the coastal ones and the hilly areas.

As most studies have pointed out as also the present IPCC report spoke about the possibility of limiting global warming to around 1.5 degree C, which may not be possible as per the commitments of national governments. The next few years are critical and emissions are expected to peak by 2025 at the latest and achieve a 40 to 70 percent reduction by 2050, which again is doubtful. This is demonstrated by the fact that climate pledges by all countries, put together, would mean 14 percent increase in emissions from present level. This has been calculated to reach global warming of around 3.2⁰ C by 2100.

Thus the projection of achieving ‘net zero’ by 2050 through deep and rapid emission cuts appears rather quite optimistic. As the report observed one cannot deny the need to adopt the right policies, infrastructure and technology and provide opportunities for individuals and institutions to reduce emissions. Multiple options and various tools, including carbon dioxide removal technology, are no doubt available but how much of this is being put into practice is the challenge before us.

Experts have concluded that India’s per capita GDP is about 30 percent lower today than it would have been without global warming. Also global warming is driving up global economic inequality with changes in the weather producing a substantial drag on growth in warmer countries. For India, the temperature of the warmest days will continue to increase. The temperature at night will also continue to increase and days will be extremely hot.

The seasons will still be affected – tropical parts of India will have the rhythm of the monsoon dictating temperature and rainfall. However, a key factor will be El Nino, the phenomenon in the tropical Pacific which involves an intermittent warming of the East Pacific every few years and has the potential to impact the monsoon, even weakening it. Given the importance of the monsoon for millions of people, the reduction in rainfall would have a negative effect on agricultural production in the country.

The condition of heat in cities of India and neighbouring countries is indeed distressing. Dhaka, Delhi and Kolkata are among the 10 cities worldwide with high population exposures to extreme heat and humidity, according to research findings (released in early October last year) that have also flagged different drivers of exposure. The study by scientists at Columbia University who analyzed population and temperature changes in 13,115 cities worldwide estimated that the count of person-days during which city residents were exposed to extreme heat and humidity nearly tripled from 40 million in 1983 to 119 million in 2018which measured how exposure to heat and humidity increased over the past three decades, estimated that population growth contributed to 74 percent of Delhi’s increase in exposure but only 48 percent in Kolkata.

The present IPCC study also corroborated this and pointed out that Indian coastal cities may be submerged by 2050. Due to melting ice caps and rising sea levels, coastal cities like Mumbai, Kolkata, Visakhapatnam, Trivandrum, Surat, Kochi and Chennai stand the risk of being close to 30 percent submerged. Mumbai and Kolkata are at the risk of losing almost all their coastline due to rise in temperatures and urban flooding.

Dhaka, the worst hit city, has had an increase of 575 million person-days of extreme heat and humidity since 1983, but only 20 percent of this exposure is due to warming and 80 percent due to population growth – from 4 million in 1983 to 22 million now. In Delhi too, which saw an increase of 554 million person-days, 74 percent of this increase emerged from population growth. Apart from Delhi and Kolkata, other Indian cities where nearly half or more exposure resulted from warming include Hyderabad, Kanpur and Mumbai. The consequences of this heat wave obviously affect the poor, who live in slummish type settlements, squatter colonies and pavements with the possibility of being exposed to heat directly.

As reports indicate city centres in the country are now a few degrees warmer than the hinterland due to the large amount of heat emitted from buildings, roads, factories and cars. It is distressing to note that modern buildings are being built with too much concrete, glass and poor shading and ventilation. Even the affordable houses that the government is constructing for the poor under the Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojana are not habitable during most days of the warm season. Experts have suggested that India needs a new heat code. Many regions of the country are now experiencing wet-bulb temperatures exceeding 31⁰C during certain parts of the year, which is dangerous for manual labour.

Keeping in view current trends, it is indeed impossible to keep global warming at 2⁰ C despite efforts being made by various countries, including India. The situation is destined to aggravate in the coming years and more serious efforts are possibly needed in the near future.---INFA

(Copyright, India News & Feature Alliance)