Economic Highlights
New Delhi, 2 May 2022
Price Jigsaw
GROWTH A MIRAGE
By Shivaji Sarkar
High or as some call it hyperinflation, i.e. rapid, excessive, and out-of-control general
price increases, has become a serious issue with Prime Minister Narendra Modi
talking to the States for bringing down the fuel prices, supposedly a key
reason for the economic trouble.
Soaring corporate profiteering is another
reason for the rising prices. Top 20 companies continue to have 70 per cent profits,
as per Mercilius Investment Managers, and higher product prices in a supposedly
subdued market. The Unilever, Suzuki Motor and JSW Steel all are in the game of
raising prices.
The problem looks graver as earlier the
Reserve Bank Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) noted that inflation has become a
larger issue than growth with 6.95 per cent retail and 14.5 per cent wholesale
index spurting. It has raised bills of government transportation, other
expenses and Finance Ministry looking for additional support for the budget.
Another intriguing issue is the faster rise of wholesale prices than the retail.
A few years back the trend was a low WPI rise followed by higher CPI surge. The
consumer prices in actuality are rising in double digits.
The RBI wonders how it should increase
interest rates to match the inflationary trend. If it raises the deposit rates,
lending rates too would move upward. A myth that the country may not find the
borrowing costs affordable prevents it. The corporate are transferring minor additional
costs to the consumers to keep their profits high in a distraught market. Most
companies are raising prices in response to the global supply squeeze in the
wake of Russia-Ukraine war. It needs a probe.
Despite efforts by the government except Gujarat
and Karnataka not many States are known to have given relief in their taxes on
petroleum products. Apparently this is becoming a political issue with the
opposition joining the spat and the Finance Ministry announcing that Rs 78,704
crore of the States’ shares of cess is yet to be transferred. The Central
government levies excise/cess on petrol of Rs.32.90/litre which includes basic
excise duty of Rs 1.40, road & infrastructure development cess of Rs18,
agriculture and infrastructure development cess of Rs 2.50 and special
additional excise duty of Rs11. There are State duties in addition to it.
This is despite the Brent crude falling to $
104 a barrel. For the past about two years, the benefits of unprecedented low crude
prices were not passed on to the consumers. Fuel prices have risen by 31 per cent
in eight years. Even petrol pumps supposed to be benefitting from higher
commissions as fuel prices rise, are paying almost double the cost for tankers.
In addition, the rising toll taxes are making goods even more expensive. Tolls
also affect inter-region and localised trading.
The country sees an opportunity in the Ukraine
situation of globally selling food grains at a higher price. While this may
ensure higher remuneration to farmers, there is a flip side. It could cause
domestic prices to soar. Prime Minister Modi recently said the government was
approaching World Trade Organisation (WTO) for facilitating sales of Indian
food grains in the world market. The WTO still has not come out with its terms.
The Ukraine situation has created a void as
the largest suppliers are unable to meet the world demand. Ukraine exported
about 1.7 million tonnes grains last month, according to consultant ProZerno.
The most-recent volume still is only about half of March 2020. Markets are bracing for more upheavals as deliveries
from Ukraine and Russia -- which together account for about a quarter of the
world’s grains trade -- turn increasingly complicated and raise the spectre of
food shortages.
A new market may gradually open up for India.
Its ramifications are too early to study. India domestically has been
overflowing with food grains. About 80 crore people are being given free food
doles worth over Rs 2 lakh crore a year for past two years. While India is the
second-largest wheat producer with a share of around 14.14 per cent of the
world’s production in 2020, it accounted for less than 1 per cent of
global wheat exports. The export potential could be large but with corporate domination,
dream prices may elude farmers. The ramifications on the domestic market can cast
shadow on the political spectrum.
The Black Sea region problems are to keep
edible oil prices elevated and feed cost pressures could have a spillover
impact on poultry, milk and dairy product prices, according to the RBI
governor. Coal shortage, its higher prices and dependence on thermal power is
increasing power cost per unit to Rs 6 to over Rs 10 or more. This would make
use of electricity for trains, vehicles, farms and industry an expensive
affair.
The inflation is eating volumes of large
companies like Hindustan Unilever (HUL) claims CEO Sanjiv Mehta but he has no
answer for its high 20 per cent operating margins, lower than earlier 24 per cent.
The rising prices are ‘rationalising’ consumer spending. High raw material
prices are now being compensated by raising product prices. As the company
tries to transfer costs, consumers are being thrifty and settling for lower
priced products. Still it is having
profits at Rs 2203 crore or 8.5 per cent. This testifies that high profiteering
is the bane.
The consumer buys only what he needs of the FMCG.
Many companies foresee a decline in high profits. Intelligent consumer spending
is hitting large companies in urban and rural areas. Rising prices are hurting
household consumption. Overall market trends can improve if profits are
rationalised.
UN Conference for Trade and Development finds
that still the ecommerce trade is growing. It however, does not consider this healthy.
Total retail sales during pandemic increased to 19 per cent in 2020 up from 16
per cent in 2019. It has hurt the least developed countries as wells as small
businesses. According to UNCTAD, global prices are creating problems all over.
It has also led to over 8.81 lakh Indians leaving for greener pastures in the
West.
The NDA II needs to follow NDA I of Atal
Behari Vajpayee when low prices baffled observers. Vajpayee’s management skills
need to be studied and used for solving a problem that is rocking the country. Modi
needs to consult, set up a committee of experts and act tough to ensure the country
goes back to a magic low inflationary phase for concerted growth.---INFA
(Copyright, India
News & Feature Alliance)
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