Spotlight
New Delhi, 19 March
2022
BJP Inroad
Into N-E
WILL STATES
PUT A HALT?
By
Sagarneel Sinha
The Bharatiya Janata
Party under Prime Minister Narendra Modi has been successful in spreading its
roots in the northeast. The return of the saffron party, that too with a
majority for the first time, in the north-eastern state of Manipur in the
recent Assembly polls shows that it is establishing itself as a major player in
the region, where changing of political loyalties is common.
True that the BJP has
presently four Chief Ministers in the region, but the saffron party is yet to
be a major force in the other States. The party has Chief Ministers in Assam,
Manipur, Arunachal Pradesh and Tripura. Out of these, the party returned to
power for the second time in both Assam and Manipur. In fact, the State of
Assam, the largest in the region in terms of political power, has turned into a
stronghold of the BJP. Now Manipur became the second State after Assam where
the saffron party returned to power completing 5 years. While in Assam, the BJP
is still short of a majority of just one seat, it has the majority in Manipur.
Early next year, the
three north-eastern States — Meghalaya, Nagaland and Tripura — will go to the polls.
Later in the year another State, Mizoram too will go to the polls. Out of these
four states, BJP is a major player only in Tripura, where it will face the
anti-incumbency test. But in the others, the party still remains a weak player.
Although in Nagaland,
the party has 12 MLAs and a Deputy Chief Minister too, the truth is that it is
still an emerging party. The party won 12 seats in the last Assembly polls due
to its alliance with Neiphiu Rio-led Nationalist Democratic Progressive Party
(NDPP). Nagaland is a Christian majority State and it is not an easy task for
the BJP with its Hindutva ideology to gain a foothold there. Even before the
last Assembly polls, there were appeals from the Nagaland Baptist Churches
Council to the regional parties not to support the BJP. Despite that the
saffron party won 12 seats — the highest ever number of MLAs it got in this State.
But the BJP can’t
deny the fact it has been on the backfoot after the killings in Mon
district, where 6 mineworkers were mistaken as militants and gunned down by the
security forces. Later subsequent violence followed where eight villagers and
one security personnel died. Since then, there has been a demand for immediate
removal of the Armed Forces Special Powers Act (AFSPA). This demand isn’t new but this unfortunate
incident has made it a crucial issue again before the polls. Aware of the
anger, the saffron party unit of the State too has joined the chorus for
removal of AFSPA but New Delhi is yet to take a final decision.
The political
dimensions are also changing in the State. The main Opposition party Nagaland
People’s Front (NPF) has joined the Neiphiu government and former Chief Minister
T.R. Zeliang has become the chairman of the United Democratic Alliance (UDA).
The coming together of NDPP and NPF is seen closely by the saffron party, which
sees it somehow as a threat to its political expansion in the state. Recently
NDPP’s Neiphiu Rio himself campaigned for the NPF candidates in the Manipur
polls, where NPF grabbed five seats.
Nagaland, as is
known, is a sensitive State. Its people are still awaiting the results of the
ongoing Naga Peace process. The Nagas are tired of the decades-old insurgency
problem and now they want peace and security of their culture and identity in
India. Elections come and go but the major problem of the common Nagas still
remains unsolved. In fact, NPF joined the NDPP-BJP government to facilitate the
Naga Political Issue with the target to achieve an honourable and acceptable
solution.
The growing demand
for removal of AFSPA, closeness of NDPP-NPF and the Naga political issue makes
the ground of the state difficult for the BJP. Much will depend on how politics
is played out in the coming days in Manipur. Although NPF has expressed its
support to the new BJP government, it remains to be seen whether the latter
includes it in the new Cabinet. In the Manipur polls too, BJP and NPF, despite
being allies in the State, didn’t contest together.
Another state where
the developments of Manipur are likely to affect is Meghalaya, which is ruled
by the National People’s Party. Conrad Sangma’s NPP contested in the Manipur
polls alone and has emerged as the second-largest party by winning seven seats
with a vote share of 17%. And the party too has now expressed its willingness
to join the new Cabinet of the BJP in Manipur. Many local saffron leaders are
opposed to this idea. NPP, along with NPF, was a partner in the previous BJP
government led by N. Biren Singh. NPP’s Y. Joykumar Singh even became the Deputy
Chief Minister.
There were power
tussles between the two allies and as a result, NPP even pulled out from the
government only to join it again with the intervention of Union Home Minister
Amit Shah, also the NDA chairman, and HimantaBishwaSarma, who heads the North
East Democratic Alliance (NEDA), an alliance led by BJP consisting of regional
parties of the region opposed to the Congress.
This apart, there
have been new political equations. After the desertion of 12 Congress MLAs led
by former chief minister Mukul Sangma to the Trinamool Congress, the rest of MLAs
of the grand old party, later suspended by the party high command, have joined
the Conrad Sangma led Meghalaya Democratic Alliance (MDA) government, where BJP
too is a partner. The saffron party’s MLA SanborSullai is Social Welfare Minister
in Sangma’s cabinet. In fact, the BJP, according to local reports, was unhappy
with Sangma for accepting the support of Congress MLAs without consulting with
alliance partners. In the last Assembly elections, BJP contesting alone got
only two seats but a good vote share of 9%, the highest it got so far.
In Mizoram, the party
had contested alone in the last Assembly polls and won only one seat. It was
the first time that the party opened its account in the State. In fact, the
party’s only MLA was Buddha Dhan Chakma, a former Congress minister who joined
the BJP. The other seat where the BJP came second is also a Chakma influenced
seat. It shows that BJP has influence among Buddhist Chakmas, who are a
minority in the Christian majority Mizoram. The saffron party, however,
hasn’t yet been successful in penetrating the Christian areas.
In the recently held
Manipur polls, out of 20 Christian dominated seats, the saffron party won 7 and
came second in another 7 seats. This is, no doubt, a big achievement for it in
the northeast, where it is still struggling to become a major player in Christian
majority States like Meghalaya, Nagaland and Mizoram. The party is still viewed
by many as “anti-Christian” in the region and it remains to be seen if the BJP,
after its success in Manipur, is able to gain a foothold in these seats by
cashing on the card of development. Time will tell. ---INFA
(Copyright, India
News & Feature Alliance)
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