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Putin’s War In Ukraine: TO DECIDE EUROPE’S FUTURE?, Dr. Małgorzata Bonikowska, 5 March 2022 Print E-mail

Spotlight

New Delhi, 5 March 2022


Putin’s War In Ukraine

TO DECIDE EUROPE’S FUTURE?

By Dr. Małgorzata Bonikowska (President, Centre for International Relations) &

Dr. Bruno Surdel (Security Analyst)

 

In the early morning of 24 February, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced the launch of a “special military operation” in Donbas in eastern Ukraine at the “request” of the self-proclaimed Donetsk and Luhansk “republics” created by the Kremlin in 2014. A few days earlier, Moscow recognised their “independence” and Putin in his propaganda speech announced that Ukraine had no right to exist. Thus, Russia unleashed a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, attacking Poland’s eastern neighbor from the north, south and east. The aim is clear: it is to subdue the Ukrainian nation, deprive it of its independence or at least degrade it to Russia’s satellite state.

Ukraine is fighting for its very survival, but also for the freedom and dignity of Europe. It is resisting alone a massive assault of one of the world’s biggest and strongest militaries. No country has decided to send troops to support the Ukrainian military effort as the authoritarian Russia has one of the largest stockpile of nuclear weapons and the West fears of escalation or even the World War 3. Instead, the Europeans and Americans have chosen to impose harsh, unprecedented sanctions on Moscow and its accomplice in Minsk, including on Putin and his foreign minister Sergey Lavrov personally, as well as on the oligarchs close to the Kremlin.

What is critical now, Europe, including Poland, and the United Kingdom, Canada and the US - even Germany which was hesitant until now - are sending weapons and military equipment to Ukraine, hoping that this will stop or slow down the invasion. Australia has also joined the Western Allies in contributing to Ukraine's defense. The longer and stiffer the Kiev’s resistance is, the greater the chance of saving an independent Ukraine.

Indeed, the resistance of the Ukrainians is much stronger than Moscow expected, and it concentrates  on the main urban centres. The defence of Kiev is critical as it is the capital city of an independent Ukraine, and its President and government are Putin's most important targets. Moscow will not hesitate to use all military means at its disposal, including heavy artillery - regardless of the number of civilian casualties and the destruction of the city - in order to break the defence and overcome this symbol of Ukrainian resistance. Then, the Kremlin would establish its puppet “government” in Kiev.

West Stands United Western democracies have united, undermining Putin's hopes of playing Europe according to the principle of “divide and rule”. By invading Ukraine, the Kremlin has managed to achieve something it has probably never imagined: it gave a new impetus to the North Atlantic Alliance, which, not so long ago, French President Emmanuel Macron referred to as being “brain dead”. NATO is swiftly and decisively strengthening its defense forces on the eastern flank, and the United States has sent more troops to Poland, Romania and the Baltic states. This is a clear message to the Kremlin – as the US President Joe Biden stated: “The United States, together with our Allies, will defend every inch of NATO territory and abide by the commitments we made to NATO.”

Germany, Italy, Hungary and Cyprus, which have become too dependent on Moscow in terms of energy supplies in recent years, had opposed removing Russia from the SWIFT interbank payment system for some time. Eventually, however, they changed their position, and there is also consensus in this respect between the European Union, the US, United Kingdom and Canada. Soon, a selected number of Russian banks will be cut off from SWIFT – a step which is to prevent those institutions from making financial transactions with the world. This is a crucial move, as only an immediate reduction of Moscow's foreign trade opportunities can hit the Kremlin enough to make it stop speaking only in the language of violence and aggression.

In addition, the European Commission announced a freeze on the assets of the Central Bank of Russia and closing EU air space for Russian aircraft. Meanwhile, the United States and UK are cutting off Russian banks from the dollar and sterling markets and, which is crucial - from clearings in those currencies . Furthermore, BP - the biggest foreign investor in Russia, quits the country. The costs of sanctions will affect the economies of all the nations who have traded with Russia but it is hard to find another, equally powerful weapon that the West could use to lower Putin's ability to finance his war machine.

At the same time, it must be taken into account that the Kremlin has been readying for the invasion for years, and it also has accumulated large foreign exchange and gold reserves worth USD 643 billion. However, it is going to be difficult for Moscow to sell its gold on the world markets as nobody seems to be willing to buy it from Russia. In addition, the sweeping EU sanctions may significantly weaken Kremlin’s ability to make use of its foreign exchange reserves.

Without any doubt, Russia is getting increasingly isolated in the international arena. And this is only to deepen with each passing day in terms of politics, diplomacy, and even sports and culture. The United Nations General Assembly adopted a resolution condemning Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, with the support of 141 countries out of 193. Earlier, a   draft resolution of the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) of 25 February condemning the invasion of Ukraine was endorsed by 11 countries that currently sit on the UNSC. Only Russia vetoed it, and three countries abstained: China, India and the United Arab Emirates.

Beijing’s position is remarkable as it demonstrates not just that Beijing's and Moscow's interests are not identical but also that for China Putin has gone too far in Ukraine. Beijing is certainly committed to distracting US attention from the Indo-Pacific to Europe. China is also looking at the US response to the Russian invasion in Ukraine, bearing in mind its plans to 'reunify' Taiwan with the People's Republic of China.

However, the prosperity of China and its further growth depend on economic development and trade with Europe and the United States. Economic stability and growth guarantee both social peace and the enduring power of the Chinese Communist Party. Beijing has declared its ‘understanding’ for the Kremlin, but in real terms it will be probably distancing itself from Moscow given that a close partnership and support for Russia might seriously threaten Beijing's economic interests. It seems that already the Chinese banks are largely complying with the Western sanctions imposed on Moscow.

Should the Kremlin succeed in capturing Kiev, the defenders will face repressions. We know it from the history of Poland after the Nazi and Soviet invasions of our country. However, the war will most likely not end with the battles fought by regular militaries or the capture of Kiev. The Ukrainian resistance will continue for years which could end in a second Afghanistan for Moscow.  Moreover, the painful, long-lasting sanctions may cause discontent of the Russian elites and oligarchs, witnessing destruction of their private economic and financial empires. Already some of the oligarchs seem to voice their concern over the bloodshed in Ukraine.  A growing dissatisfaction of ordinary citizens seeing the cost of living skyrocketing will not strengthen Putin either.

But we may well be naïve in thinking in this way. No doubt, there is also a different, horrific scenario in which the economic collapse of Russia or the failure of Putin’s invasion of Ukraine would tempt him to use tactical nuclear weapons. He might also choose to destabilize Poland and the Baltic states. The Russian invasion of Ukraine made the unimaginable real, and the Kremlin might test the West's resolve also on NATO's eastern flank. Latvia and Estonia have large Russian-speaking minorities (25% and 30% respectively) and their presence Putin might use as a pretext to intimidate those countries, even if the ethnic Russians there do not support the Kremlin.

A possible scenario in which the current Polish-Ukrainian and Polish-Belarusian borders become Poland’s borders with Russia would be a terrible circumstance bearing in mind that in the north we border with the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad. In a near future, the Kremlin might make demands on Lithuania and Poland regarding a direct access - a “corridor” to Kaliningrad. We had experienced a similar situation in 1939 with the Nazi Germany.

All the more important is the strong reaction and speed of action by NATO, the European Union and all member states concerning Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Only decisive steps in terms of strong, immediate financial support and supplies of weapons and military equipment to Ukraine on the one hand, and economic, technological and financial sanctions against Russia on the other, as well as ensuring the international isolation of Moscow, may stop the further aggression of the Kremlin.

Meanwhile, Putin's war is destroying Ukraine's infrastructure and economy, creating an immense suffering for the civilian population, and driving hundreds of thousands of people out of their homes and the country, and there could be millions of refugees soon. They find refuge in Poland, Slovakia, Hungary, Moldova, Romania and other countries. Helping them is a test of humanity at a turning point for Europe. ---INFA

(In Collaboration with Centre For International Relations)

 

 

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