Spotlight
New
Delhi, 5 March 2022
Putin’s War In
Ukraine
TO DECIDE EUROPE’S
FUTURE?
By Dr. Małgorzata Bonikowska
(President, Centre for International Relations) &
Dr. Bruno Surdel
(Security Analyst)
In the early morning
of 24 February, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced the launch of a
“special military operation” in Donbas in eastern Ukraine at the “request” of
the self-proclaimed Donetsk and Luhansk “republics” created by the Kremlin in
2014. A few days earlier, Moscow recognised their “independence” and Putin in
his propaganda speech announced that Ukraine had no right to exist. Thus,
Russia unleashed a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, attacking Poland’s eastern
neighbor from the north, south and east. The aim is clear: it is to subdue the
Ukrainian nation, deprive it of its independence or at least degrade it to
Russia’s satellite state.
Ukraine is fighting
for its very survival, but also for the freedom and dignity of Europe. It is
resisting alone a massive assault of one of the world’s biggest and strongest
militaries. No country has decided to send troops to support the Ukrainian
military effort as the authoritarian Russia has one of the largest stockpile of
nuclear weapons and the West fears of escalation or even the World War 3.
Instead, the Europeans and Americans have chosen to impose harsh, unprecedented
sanctions on Moscow and its accomplice in Minsk, including on Putin and his
foreign minister Sergey Lavrov personally, as well as on the oligarchs close to
the Kremlin.
What is critical now,
Europe, including Poland, and the United Kingdom, Canada and the US - even
Germany which was hesitant until now - are sending weapons and military
equipment to Ukraine, hoping that this will stop or slow down the invasion.
Australia has also joined the Western Allies in contributing to Ukraine's
defense. The longer and stiffer the Kiev’s resistance is, the greater the
chance of saving an independent Ukraine.
Indeed, the
resistance of the Ukrainians is much stronger than Moscow expected, and it
concentrates on the main urban centres.
The defence of Kiev is critical as it is the capital city of an independent
Ukraine, and its President and government are Putin's most important targets.
Moscow will not hesitate to use all military means at its disposal, including
heavy artillery - regardless of the number of civilian casualties and the
destruction of the city - in order to break the defence and overcome this
symbol of Ukrainian resistance. Then, the Kremlin would establish its puppet
“government” in Kiev.
West Stands United
Western democracies have united, undermining Putin's hopes of playing Europe
according to the principle of “divide and rule”. By invading Ukraine, the
Kremlin has managed to achieve something it has probably never imagined: it
gave a new impetus to the North Atlantic Alliance, which, not so long ago,
French President Emmanuel Macron referred to as being “brain dead”. NATO is
swiftly and decisively strengthening its defense forces on the eastern flank,
and the United States has sent more troops to Poland, Romania and the Baltic
states. This is a clear message to the Kremlin – as the US President Joe Biden
stated: “The United States, together with our Allies, will defend every inch of
NATO territory and abide by the commitments we made to NATO.”
Germany, Italy,
Hungary and Cyprus, which have become too dependent on Moscow in terms of
energy supplies in recent years, had opposed removing Russia from the SWIFT
interbank payment system for some time. Eventually, however, they changed their
position, and there is also consensus in this respect between the European
Union, the US, United Kingdom and Canada. Soon, a selected number of Russian
banks will be cut off from SWIFT – a step which is to prevent those
institutions from making financial transactions with the world. This is a
crucial move, as only an immediate reduction of Moscow's foreign trade
opportunities can hit the Kremlin enough to make it stop speaking only in the
language of violence and aggression.
In addition, the
European Commission announced a freeze on the assets of the Central Bank of
Russia and closing EU air space for Russian aircraft. Meanwhile, the United
States and UK are cutting off Russian banks from the dollar and sterling
markets and, which is crucial - from clearings in those currencies .
Furthermore, BP - the biggest foreign investor in Russia, quits the country.
The costs of sanctions will affect the economies of all the nations who have
traded with Russia but it is hard to find another, equally powerful weapon that
the West could use to lower Putin's ability to finance his war machine.
At the same time, it
must be taken into account that the Kremlin has been readying for the invasion
for years, and it also has accumulated large foreign exchange and gold reserves
worth USD 643 billion. However, it is going to be difficult for Moscow to sell
its gold on the world markets as nobody seems to be willing to buy it from
Russia. In addition, the sweeping EU sanctions may significantly weaken
Kremlin’s ability to make use of its foreign exchange reserves.
Without any doubt,
Russia is getting increasingly isolated in the international arena. And this is
only to deepen with each passing day in terms of politics, diplomacy, and even
sports and culture. The United Nations General Assembly adopted a resolution
condemning Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, with the support of 141 countries out
of 193. Earlier, a draft resolution of
the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) of 25 February condemning the
invasion of Ukraine was endorsed by 11 countries that currently sit on the
UNSC. Only Russia vetoed it, and three countries abstained: China, India and
the United Arab Emirates.
Beijing’s position is
remarkable as it demonstrates not just that Beijing's and Moscow's interests
are not identical but also that for China Putin has gone too far in Ukraine.
Beijing is certainly committed to distracting US attention from the
Indo-Pacific to Europe. China is also looking at the US response to the Russian
invasion in Ukraine, bearing in mind its plans to 'reunify' Taiwan with the
People's Republic of China.
However, the
prosperity of China and its further growth depend on economic development and
trade with Europe and the United States. Economic stability and growth
guarantee both social peace and the enduring power of the Chinese Communist
Party. Beijing has declared its ‘understanding’ for the Kremlin, but in real
terms it will be probably distancing itself from Moscow given that a close
partnership and support for Russia might seriously threaten Beijing's economic
interests. It seems that already the Chinese banks are largely complying with
the Western sanctions imposed on Moscow.
Should the Kremlin
succeed in capturing Kiev, the defenders will face repressions. We know it from
the history of Poland after the Nazi and Soviet invasions of our country.
However, the war will most likely not end with the battles fought by regular
militaries or the capture of Kiev. The Ukrainian resistance will continue for
years which could end in a second Afghanistan for Moscow. Moreover, the painful, long-lasting sanctions
may cause discontent of the Russian elites and oligarchs, witnessing
destruction of their private economic and financial empires. Already some of
the oligarchs seem to voice their concern over the bloodshed in Ukraine. A growing dissatisfaction of ordinary
citizens seeing the cost of living skyrocketing will not strengthen Putin
either.
But we may well be
naïve in thinking in this way. No doubt, there is also a different, horrific
scenario in which the economic collapse of Russia or the failure of Putin’s
invasion of Ukraine would tempt him to use tactical nuclear weapons. He might
also choose to destabilize Poland and the Baltic states. The Russian invasion
of Ukraine made the unimaginable real, and the Kremlin might test the West's
resolve also on NATO's eastern flank. Latvia and Estonia have large
Russian-speaking minorities (25% and 30% respectively) and their presence Putin
might use as a pretext to intimidate those countries, even if the ethnic
Russians there do not support the Kremlin.
A possible scenario
in which the current Polish-Ukrainian and Polish-Belarusian borders become
Poland’s borders with Russia would be a terrible circumstance bearing in mind
that in the north we border with the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad. In a near
future, the Kremlin might make demands on Lithuania and Poland regarding a
direct access - a “corridor” to Kaliningrad. We had experienced a similar
situation in 1939 with the Nazi Germany.
All the more
important is the strong reaction and speed of action by NATO, the European
Union and all member states concerning Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Only
decisive steps in terms of strong, immediate financial support and supplies of
weapons and military equipment to Ukraine on the one hand, and economic,
technological and financial sanctions against Russia on the other, as well as
ensuring the international isolation of Moscow, may stop the further aggression
of the Kremlin.
Meanwhile, Putin's
war is destroying Ukraine's infrastructure and economy, creating an immense
suffering for the civilian population, and driving hundreds of thousands of
people out of their homes and the country, and there could be millions of
refugees soon. They find refuge in Poland, Slovakia, Hungary, Moldova, Romania
and other countries. Helping them is a test of humanity at a turning point for
Europe. ---INFA
(In Collaboration with Centre For International
Relations)
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